Old Rocks
Diamond Member
La Niña fizzles, making record warm global temperatures more likely
Like many other studies examining extreme events in recent years, the new research, which has been submitted to the online journal Hydrology and Earth Systems Discussions, points to the conclusion that global warming is an increasingly influential player when it comes to tipping the odds in favor of extreme events.
This is particularly the case when it comes to extreme heat and heavy precipitation events, the researchers say.
So much rain fell during the three-day deluge from August 12 to 14 — 25.5 inches in Livingston, Louisiana near Baton Rouge — that rivers swelled to several feet above their all-time historical markers. The Amite River in Magnolia, Louisiana, for example, rose to 58.56 feet, more than 6 feet above the old record set in 1977.
"We find that the probability of a comparable event to occur anywhere in the region has increased over time and that this increase is caused by climate change. The increase of odds is at least 40 percent, most likely a doubling (100 percent)," Karin van der Wiel, lead author of the study, told Mashable in an email.
"That means that what is a 1-in-30 year event now, used to be a 1-in-50 year event in preindustrial times (1900)," added van der Wiel, who is a research scientist at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, New Jersey.
The new study is part of a "rapid climate attribution" push by many climate scientists to speed up the time it takes to inform the public and policymakers about the role that global warming may have played in a newsworthy extreme weather event.
Deadly Louisiana deluge had a major climate change assist, study finds
Looks like the La Nina is not going to have any effect on this record warm year. And we can expect to see more of the types of events we have seen this year in Texas, Louisiana, Maryland, and West Virginia.