The GOP has a pretty good chance of making Obama a one-term President. So let's look at the Republicans vying to take his job. I will list them in order of their RCP ranking.
Gov. Mitt Romney- (21.6% on RCP) Mitt is the "frontrunner" because he ran last time, has name recognition and support amongst the establishment. But he has a lot of serious handicaps. First, he belongs to a religion a lot of people consider a cult. Second, he's really suspected of being a closet liberal. Third, he just wasn't a good candidate in 2008 (where, let's not forget, he finished behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee.) Keep in mind, this is with Rush Limbaugh and the whole GOP establishment trying to get him over the hump, and they still couldn't do it.
My guess is that Romney's status will fade when the conservative base coalesces around another candidate.
Rep. Michelle Bachman. (13.2%) Right now, she is the standard bearer of the TEA Party faction, but one could argue the TEA Party has jumped the shark. I don't think she has legs. Clearly, she lacks discipline, she's said some off the wall things in the past. I compare her to Howard Dean in 2004, the guy who was saying what the base wanted to hear, but they won't pull the lever for her at the end of the day, going for someone more conventional.
Gov. Rick Perry (12.6%) - I think Perry could hands down be the strongest candidate. He has credibility with the religious, TEA Party, establishment and business Republicans. He's the one guy who can take all the factions and get them behind him.
What aggrevates me is, what the hell is he waiting for, and engraved invitation?
Still, right now, this is the horse I'm backing.
Gov. Sarah Palin (12.1%) - I for the life of me don't think she's actually running. I don't think she wants to take the pay cut and do the hard work. I think she'd be a weak candidate because she doesn't really rise above the folksy. Folksy is fine, and so is cotton candy, but you need some meat, and you need some vegetables, too.
Mayor Rudy Guiliani (11 %) Again? Really? The only reason I kind of hope he gets into it is he may sap strength from Romney and make it easier for a real conservative to win..
Rep Ron Paul (8.2%) - Paul is the standard-bearer of the libertarian wing. He's going to be in until the end, and bascially, will be the dead man's switch. If you rate below him, time to fold your tent.
Herman Cain (6.6%) - Alan Keyes with 50% less Crazy.
Speaker Newt Gingrich (4.8%) Newt is a great idea guy and an awful politician. He's been tone-deaf to even his supporters, his campaign is on life support. Which is kind of sad, he's one of the brighter guys in Politics.
Governor Mike Pawlenty (2.8%) Pawlenty would be my second choice, but he's run such a poor campaign, I have my doubts. He's really been kind of a disappointment. His whole strategy was to get some momentum out of Iowa, but Bachmann has stolen his thunder.
Senator Rick Santorum (1.9%) - This man isn't serious. He was beaten in 2006, and is looking for some kind of validation, where he can show his grandkids "See, here I was in the GOP debates before I was knocked out in a meaningless straw poll."
Governor/Ambassador John Huntsman (NO RATING) - And yet if you listen to the MSM, this guy is a major contendor and one of the grownups in the room. Ignore his badly run campaign and the fact no one really wants to vote for him.
Gov. Mitt Romney- (21.6% on RCP) Mitt is the "frontrunner" because he ran last time, has name recognition and support amongst the establishment. But he has a lot of serious handicaps. First, he belongs to a religion a lot of people consider a cult. Second, he's really suspected of being a closet liberal. Third, he just wasn't a good candidate in 2008 (where, let's not forget, he finished behind John McCain and Mike Huckabee.) Keep in mind, this is with Rush Limbaugh and the whole GOP establishment trying to get him over the hump, and they still couldn't do it.
My guess is that Romney's status will fade when the conservative base coalesces around another candidate.
Rep. Michelle Bachman. (13.2%) Right now, she is the standard bearer of the TEA Party faction, but one could argue the TEA Party has jumped the shark. I don't think she has legs. Clearly, she lacks discipline, she's said some off the wall things in the past. I compare her to Howard Dean in 2004, the guy who was saying what the base wanted to hear, but they won't pull the lever for her at the end of the day, going for someone more conventional.
Gov. Rick Perry (12.6%) - I think Perry could hands down be the strongest candidate. He has credibility with the religious, TEA Party, establishment and business Republicans. He's the one guy who can take all the factions and get them behind him.
What aggrevates me is, what the hell is he waiting for, and engraved invitation?
Still, right now, this is the horse I'm backing.
Gov. Sarah Palin (12.1%) - I for the life of me don't think she's actually running. I don't think she wants to take the pay cut and do the hard work. I think she'd be a weak candidate because she doesn't really rise above the folksy. Folksy is fine, and so is cotton candy, but you need some meat, and you need some vegetables, too.
Mayor Rudy Guiliani (11 %) Again? Really? The only reason I kind of hope he gets into it is he may sap strength from Romney and make it easier for a real conservative to win..
Rep Ron Paul (8.2%) - Paul is the standard-bearer of the libertarian wing. He's going to be in until the end, and bascially, will be the dead man's switch. If you rate below him, time to fold your tent.
Herman Cain (6.6%) - Alan Keyes with 50% less Crazy.
Speaker Newt Gingrich (4.8%) Newt is a great idea guy and an awful politician. He's been tone-deaf to even his supporters, his campaign is on life support. Which is kind of sad, he's one of the brighter guys in Politics.
Governor Mike Pawlenty (2.8%) Pawlenty would be my second choice, but he's run such a poor campaign, I have my doubts. He's really been kind of a disappointment. His whole strategy was to get some momentum out of Iowa, but Bachmann has stolen his thunder.
Senator Rick Santorum (1.9%) - This man isn't serious. He was beaten in 2006, and is looking for some kind of validation, where he can show his grandkids "See, here I was in the GOP debates before I was knocked out in a meaningless straw poll."
Governor/Ambassador John Huntsman (NO RATING) - And yet if you listen to the MSM, this guy is a major contendor and one of the grownups in the room. Ignore his badly run campaign and the fact no one really wants to vote for him.
