Isaac Asimov on climate change, 1989, 1977

[Old Rocks]

1989: Isaac Asimov on Climate Change Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Hmmm...... Weren't all the scientists supposed to have been talking about an ice age in 1977?

 

[Oddball]

I predict that one day, the Earf will be consumed in an immense fiery supernova.

See how easy that is?

 

[Old Rocks]

Willfull ignorance. Such a wonderful thing.

 

[Trakar]

I predict that one day, the Earf will be consumed in an immense fiery supernova.

See how easy that is?

Stars such as our sun are not subject to experiencing supernova, but then I take it you don't much care for, or understand issues of science?

 

[Quantum Windbag]

1989: Isaac Asimov on Climate Change Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Hmmm...... Weren't all the scientists supposed to have been talking about an ice age in 1977?

I have admired Asimov for years, but I long ago realized that he was not perfect. He lost me when he started talking about sea level rising 200 ft Even Al Gore didn't go that far off base.

 

[Trakar]

I have admired Asimov for years, but I long ago realized that he was not perfect. He lost me when he started talking about sea level rising 200 ft Even Al Gore didn't go that far off base.

I believe Asimov was referring to a state where the CO2 levels are higher thanthey currently are. His speculations were not without foundation.

Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years - (AAAS) Science - http://atripati.bol.ucla.edu/23.pdf

...The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland...

Our system is still equilibrating to the current levels of CO2. Even if we could hold the atmospheric ratios to their current levels, this level of temp rise and sea level rise could be expected to result from current conditions. At the current rates of increase, CO2 levels will double preindustrial ratios within a couple of decades and may triple their current levels by 2100. Complete melting of the surface icecaps and sheets would raise sea levels by ~70-80meters (not counting thermal expansion), or somewhere between 230-260'. Which puts Asimov's considerations in good standing.

 

[The Infidel]

Willfull ignorance. Such a wonderful thing.

I made a turd earlier with more common sense than you.

True steary.... Im serial!

 

[The Infidel]

 

[Quantum Windbag]

I have admired Asimov for years, but I long ago realized that he was not perfect. He lost me when he started talking about sea level rising 200 ft Even Al Gore didn't go that far off base.

I believe Asimov was referring to a state where the CO2 levels are higher thanthey currently are. His speculations were not without foundation.

Coupling of CO2 and Ice Sheet Stability Over Major Climate Transitions of the Last 20 Million Years - (AAAS) Science - http://atripati.bol.ucla.edu/23.pdf

...The last time carbon dioxide levels were apparently as high as they are today — and were sustained at those levels — global temperatures were 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit higher than they are today, the sea level was approximately 75 to 120 feet higher than today, there was no permanent sea ice cap in the Arctic and very little ice on Antarctica and Greenland...

Our system is still equilibrating to the current levels of CO2. Even if we could hold the atmospheric ratios to their current levels, this level of temp rise and sea level rise could be expected to result from current conditions. At the current rates of increase, CO2 levels will double preindustrial ratios within a couple of decades and may triple their current levels by 2100. Complete melting of the surface icecaps and sheets would raise sea levels by ~70-80meters (not counting thermal expansion), or somewhere between 230-260'. Which puts Asimov's considerations in good standing.

Funny things is, the most serious projections do not have the ice caps melting, therefore thee is no chance of the sea levels rising that far. As we have seen this winter, higher CO2 levels contribute to more water vapor, and more precipitation in coastal areas.

The ice caps, on the other hand, melt all the time. In years where there is less snowfall they do not grow back as fast as the ice melts. In years with more snowfall they grow back faster than the ice melts. Most of the models I have seen show this fluctuating over time, but none of them predict that the ice caps will completely disappear, no matter how hot it gets. That is because the warmer temps generally result in more snowfall in the Arctic regions.

Like I said, he lost me.

By the way, he also argued that cholesterol, being the only substance that the body actually makes itself, should be consumed in higher than recommended amounts. Like I said, he was human, and wrong occasionally.

 

[Two Thumbs]

1989: Isaac Asimov on Climate Change Climate Denial Crock of the Week

Hmmm...... Weren't all the scientists supposed to have been talking about an ice age in 1977?

They were. They didn't have a fool like Gore to help them get funding. and they couldn't bring themselves to use fear to line thier pockets at the time.

Today they have gore and no such moral restraint.

 

[Trakar]

Funny things is, the most serious projections do not have the ice caps melting, therefore thee is no chance of the sea levels rising that far...

The most serious projections for when?

by 2100? The average global surface temp could go up to 100 and it would take a millenia or more to completely melt all surface ice. If we could stop all further increases in atmospheric CO2 and hold the ratios steady where they are at right now, it might take a couple of centuries for the conditions to equilibrate to the current level of CO2, but at the end of that time we would be looking at global average temps that were around 8 degrees F higher than now, and sea levels that are around a hundred feet higher than they are today. We may only see a couple of meters of sea level rise by 2100, but that isn't the end of the story, even if we stopped emitting all CO2 today. Temp increases and sea level rises are inevitable regardless of any action we take regarding our influence on climate.

...As we have seen this winter, higher CO2 levels contribute to more water vapor, and more precipitation in coastal areas.

precipitation increases aren't limited to costal areas, and shifting jet stream patterns mean that increasing precipitation isn't the only concern.

The ice caps, on the other hand, melt all the time. In years where there is less snowfall they do not grow back as fast as the ice melts. In years with more snowfall they grow back faster than the ice melts. Most of the models I have seen show this fluctuating over time, but none of them predict that the ice caps will completely disappear, no matter how hot it gets. That is because the warmer temps generally result in more snowfall in the Arctic regions.

While this general trend is in balance (or relatively so) minor increases and decreases in temp result in much of what you describe. As this balance is exceeded, however, and temp trends increase that cycle falls apart (due moreso to warming winter temp averages), the geologic record demonstrates the conditions that result in an ice-free planet. We aren't there yet but it is on the horizon, and unfortunately may already be scripted, unless we take a lot more drastic actions than anyone wants to undertake.

By the way, he also argued that cholesterol, being the only substance that the body actually makes itself, should be consumed in higher than recommended amounts. Like I said, he was human, and wrong occasionally.

Certainly, no one is right about everything, much depends upon one's qualifications to assess evidences and understandings, and even within the field of one's life's devotion, occassional errors and misunderstandings occur. In this particular instance however, Asimov's considerations of climate are matched and supported by the mainstream scientific understandings and evidences.

 

[skookerasbil]

nobody cares

 

[Quantum Windbag]

The most serious projections for when?

by 2100? The average global surface temp could go up to 100 and it would take a millenia or more to completely melt all surface ice. If we could stop all further increases in atmospheric CO2 and hold the ratios steady where they are at right now, it might take a couple of centuries for the conditions to equilibrate to the current level of CO2, but at the end of that time we would be looking at global average temps that were around 8 degrees F higher than now, and sea levels that are around a hundred feet higher than they are today. We may only see a couple of meters of sea level rise by 2100, but that isn't the end of the story, even if we stopped emitting all CO2 today. Temp increases and sea level rises are inevitable regardless of any action we take regarding our influence on climate.

I bet you think you are being reasonable, don't you? The truth is you are an acolyte of the doom and gloom crowd. Here is a little tidbit for you, if we stopped all artificial CO2 production we would do more damage to the global climate than we would if we kept at the present levels for the next 100 years. "An Inconvenient Truth" is a major joke among serious researchers, and they would prefer to outright ban it. That one film has done more damage to the study of global climate than anything the deniers could possibly do. thanks for helping the people that work against the truth.

precipitation increases aren't limited to costal areas, and shifting jet stream patterns mean that increasing precipitation isn't the only concern.

Where the **** did I say they were? I just pointed out the most noticeable consequence of climate change, and you act like I am arguing some other point. Do you have a brain? Have you ever used it?

While this general trend is in balance (or relatively so) minor increases and decreases in temp result in much of what you describe. As this balance is exceeded, however, and temp trends increase that cycle falls apart (due moreso to warming winter temp averages), the geologic record demonstrates the conditions that result in an ice-free planet. We aren't there yet but it is on the horizon, and unfortunately may already be scripted, unless we take a lot more drastic actions than anyone wants to undertake.

Newsflash, the polar regions are not global. You are confusing climate and weather. The average global temperature could increase by 20 degrees and there would still be ice. Even if the impossible happens, it will take centuries, and we are pretty smart. We will learn more over time, and have more options. Even today we have learned to deal with the functional equivalent of a rising sea level of 15 to 20 feet in urban coastal areas. The very act of building large cities near the coast cause the land to sink that much, and no coastal city has yet sunk under the waves. In fact, most of them have expanded into areas that were once below the sea level.

Certainly, no one is right about everything, much depends upon one's qualifications to assess evidences and understandings, and even within the field of one's life's devotion, occassional errors and misunderstandings occur. In this particular instance however, Asimov's considerations of climate are matched and supported by the mainstream scientific understandings and evidences.

His qualifications are that he studied bio-chemistry, wrote science fiction, and was a pundit and talking head for the media. The mainstream science field today reject his views as alarmist and unsupported.

Want to try again?

 

[Old Rocks]

Hey Q, want to link to any of that mainstream science that you claim views what Asimov stated as alarmist?

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Hey Q, want to link to any of that mainstream science that you claim views what Asimov stated as alarmist?

Nope

Warning effect on sea level unsure

 

[Old Rocks]

Really, Q, there is a lot of data much more recent than this.

Warning effect on sea level unsure

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change covers the question of how global warming could effect sea levels around the globe in Chapter 7 of it's book Climate Change 1995. A new report, which would update the 1995 book is due in 2001.

5.5.2.2 Sea Level Change during the Last Decade from Satellite Altimetry - AR4 WGI Chapter 5: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Since 1992, global mean sea level can be computed at 10-day intervals by averaging the altimetric measurements from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason satellites over the area of coverage (66°S to 66°N) (Nerem and Mitchum, 2001). Each 10-day estimate of global mean sea level has an accuracy of approximately 5 mm. Numerous papers on the altimetry results (see Cazenave and Nerem, 2004, for a review) show a current rate of sea level rise of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr–1 over 1993 to 2003 (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004; Leuliette et al., 2004; Figure 5.14). A significant fraction of the 3 mm yr–1 rate of change has been shown to arise from changes in the Southern Ocean (Cabanes et al., 2001

 

[Trakar]

Nope

Warning effect on sea level unsure

The Copenhagen Diagnosis - http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf

pg -38 Global SeaLevel

...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.

Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.

Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).

Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).

level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Really, Q, there is a lot of data much more recent than this.

Warning effect on sea level unsure

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change covers the question of how global warming could effect sea levels around the globe in Chapter 7 of it's book Climate Change 1995. A new report, which would update the 1995 book is due in 2001.

5.5.2.2 Sea Level Change during the Last Decade from Satellite Altimetry - AR4 WGI Chapter 5: Observations: Oceanic Climate Change and Sea Level

Since 1992, global mean sea level can be computed at 10-day intervals by averaging the altimetric measurements from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) and Jason satellites over the area of coverage (66°S to 66°N) (Nerem and Mitchum, 2001). Each 10-day estimate of global mean sea level has an accuracy of approximately 5 mm. Numerous papers on the altimetry results (see Cazenave and Nerem, 2004, for a review) show a current rate of sea level rise of 3.1 ± 0.7 mm yr–1 over 1993 to 2003 (Cazenave and Nerem, 2004; Leuliette et al., 2004; Figure 5.14). A significant fraction of the 3 mm yr–1 rate of change has been shown to arise from changes in the Southern Ocean (Cabanes et al., 2001

Did you even bother to look at anything? Even the mediocre link I posted? If you did, why are you looking backwards in an attempt to refute my point that no one thinks the sea level will rise by 200 feet in the ******* future?

 

[Quantum Windbag]

Nope

Warning effect on sea level unsure

The Copenhagen Diagnosis - http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf

pg -38 Global SeaLevel

...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.

Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.

Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).

Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).

level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...

At 100 centimeters a century, which is far above even the rate the most ridiculous predictions show, we will have 6000 years to deal with the problem before it rises 200 feet. Believe it or not, we will fix it before that happens.

You really should do some basic math before you try to make me look stupid and uninformed. That is why mainstream scientist think that type of thinking is alarmist, because idiots like you are incapable of thinking far enough ahead to see how stupid it really is.

 

[Trakar]

Nope

Warning effect on sea level unsure

The Copenhagen Diagnosis - http://www.ccrc.unsw.edu.au/Copenhagen/Copenhagen_Diagnosis_LOW.pdf

pg -38 Global SeaLevel

...Satellite measurements show sea-level is rising at 3.4 millimeters per year since these records began in 1993. This is 80% faster than the best estimate of the IPCC Third Assessment Report for the same time period.

Accounting for ice-sheet mass loss, sea-level rise until 2100 is likely to be at least twice as large as that presented by IPCC AR4, with an upper limit of ~2m based on new ice-sheet understanding.

Since 1870, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (IPCC AR4). Since 1993, sea level has been accurately measured globally from satellites. Before that time, the data come from tide gauges at coastal stations around the world. Satellite and tide-gauge measurements show that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated. Statistical analysis reveals that the rate of rise is closely correlated with temperature: the warmer it gets, the
faster sea level rises (Rahmstorf 2007).

Sea level rise is an inevitable consequence of global warming for two main reasons: ocean water expands as it heats up, and additional water flows into the oceans from the ice that melts on land. For the period 1961-2003, thermal expansion contributed ~40% to the observed sea level rise, while shrinking mountain glaciers and ice sheets have contributed ~60% (Domingues et al. 2008).

level has risen faster than expected (Rahmstorf et al. 2007), see Figure 16. The average rate of rise for 1993-2008 as measured from satellite is 3.4 millimeters per year (Cazenave et al. 2008), while the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) projected a best estimate of 1.9 millimeters per year for the same period. Actual rise has thus been 80% faster than projected by models. (Note that the more recent models of the 2007 IPCC report still project essentially the same sea level rise as those of the TAR, to within 10%.)
(...)
Sea level will continue to rise for many centuries after global temperature is stabilized, since it takes that much time for the oceans and ice sheets to fully respond to a warmer climate. Some recent estimates of future rise are compiled in Figure 17. These estimates highlight the fact that unchecked global warming is likely to raise sea level by several meters in coming centuries, leading to the loss of many major coastal cities and entire island states...

At 100 centimeters a century, which is far above even the rate the most ridiculous predictions show, we will have 6000 years to deal with the problem before it rises 200 feet. Believe it or not, we will fix it before that happens.

Sea level is currently expected to rise by around 2 meters (200 cm) over this century, and as is laid out in the document I linked and the published papers it references, this rate is accelerating.

You really should do some basic math before you try to make me look stupid and uninformed.

I have treated you with respect and simply offered mainstream scientific information and links to try and help you improve your understandings of the science. If you wish now to insult and personally attack me because your own understandings do not agree with the science, then that is your choice, but I am not trying to portray you in any fashion.

That is why mainstream scientist think that type of thinking is alarmist, because idiots like you are incapable of thinking far enough ahead to see how stupid it really is.

please indicate and support anything I have claimed or asserted that is not supported by mainstream published science and accepted mainstream scientific understandings.