Is the world "better off" at 580 ppm or 300 ppm of CO2?

[westwall]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they? You can't handle an extra degree? Every day in the desert human beings enjoy temperature swings of up to 100 degrees. A degree isn't anything to freak out about.

Temperature is not the issue, climate is the issue. If droughts become common in the West, the old fights over water rights will only get worse. If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

And none of that will happen.

 

[ding]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

So which would you prefer 300 ppm or 580 ppm?

No idea. Whatever it is today, that is where I'd vote to keep it.

Why? We're at risk of entering a glacial cycle at 416 ppm. That's where it was at when the glacial cycles started.

 

[alang1216]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

 

[ReinyDays]

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

Americans have a reliable pension program ... we get checks from the government instead of our children ... we don't need a dozen to support us in our dodderhood ... like they need in Bangladesh ... they've always built their homes on mounds there, it floods every year ... mitigating sea level rise over the next 100 years is only a few weekend's work piling more dirt on these mounds ... a dozen kids remember? ...

You'll want to wait 50 years before you build your home if you want beach front views in 100 ... houses don't last 100 years, not the way we build them today ...

My DIL's got wind I'll be insisting their kids call me Grandma ... I guess they stopped ovulating or something ... fear does strange things ...

 

[ding]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 9 inches or 24 cm since 1880 calculates to a 1.7 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 3.2 in or 8.1 cm since 1993 calculates to at 3 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

So if the GMSL rises at 3 mm/yr using the topographic contour map of elevations above GMSL how many years do you calculate it will take for most of Florida to vanish?

You do see that the contours are in meters, right? You do see that most of Florida is above 10 meters above GMSL, right? Realistically for Florida to vanish we are talking about a 20m sea level rise. That's 6,667 years.

 

[ReinyDays]

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

I've been alternating between "Purple Trainwreck" and "Lemon Royal" ... both from the Green Acre Farms just up the road ... they both test out at mid 20%'s in THC and trivial CBD's ... I like the sharp hit and quick fade ... what are you smoking right now? ...

Well ... there's a twenty foot berm with a roadbed on top there in South Florida, the Everglades Parkway cuts straight across between Miami and Naples ... I guess with two feet rise in 100 years, it'll only be an 18 foot berm with a road bed on top ... will our great-great-grandchildren notice? ... Bangladesh already floods every year during monsoon season ... ten feet ... that's the fresh water running down the mountains ... what does sea level have to do with that? ...

Your sea level rise number are running anemic ... at 3.2 mm/yr, we only see 320 mm in a century, about a foot ... piling dirt up one foot doesn't take 100 years ... Japan has been building 50 foot sea walls since the old ones washed away in 2011 ... hundreds of miles of 50 foot sea wall in just 9 years (including clean-up) ...

The satellite data is showing an acceleration to this rate, of 0.084 mm/yr/yr ... slapping that into the quadratic gives closer to 2 feet rise by year 2100 ... but piling two feet of dirt up is about as trivial as one foot ... call it 2% the cost (per mile) of the 41,000 mile interstate freeway system we built in twenty years here ... and this is all about the East Coast ... the West Coast is benched up 20 feet, in some places 30 feet (in some places 250 feet) ... but there will be a 200 foot tsunami there within 100 years, so no difference eh? ...

California tumbles into the sea
That'll be the day I go
Back to Annandale

 

[alang1216]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they? You can't handle an extra degree? Every day in the desert human beings enjoy temperature swings of up to 100 degrees. A degree isn't anything to freak out about.

Temperature is not the issue, climate is the issue. If droughts become common in the West, the old fights over water rights will only get worse. If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

And none of that will happen.

Well that is a relief. But how do you know?

 

[alang1216]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 9 inches or 24 cm since 1880 calculates to a 1.7 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 3.2 in or 8.1 cm since 1993 calculates to at 3 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

So if the GMSL rises at 3 mm/yr using the topographic contour map of elevations above GMSL how many years do you calculate it will take for most of Florida to vanish?

You do see that the contours are in meters, right? You do see that most of Florida is above 10 meters above GMSL, right? Realistically for Florida to vanish we are talking about a 20m sea level rise. That's 6,667 years.
View attachment 371609

Actually it isn't that simple, the rising water doesn't just gently cover the land. The effect of sea level rise is magnified by wave action. Florida won't get covered by the rising water, it will be eroded away by the rising water.

 

[alang1216]

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

I've been alternating between "Purple Trainwreck" and "Lemon Royal" ... both from the Green Acre Farms just up the road ... they both test out at mid 20%'s in THC and trivial CBD's ... I like the sharp hit and quick fade ... what are you smoking right now? ...

Well ... there's a twenty foot berm with a roadbed on top there in South Florida, the Everglades Parkway cuts straight across between Miami and Naples ... I guess with two feet rise in 100 years, it'll only be an 18 foot berm with a road bed on top ... will our great-great-grandchildren notice? ... Bangladesh already floods every year during monsoon season ... ten feet ... that's the fresh water running down the mountains ... what does sea level have to do with that? ...

Your sea level rise number are running anemic ... at 3.2 mm/yr, we only see 320 mm in a century, about a foot ... piling dirt up one foot doesn't take 100 years ... Japan has been building 50 foot sea walls since the old ones washed away in 2011 ... hundreds of miles of 50 foot sea wall in just 9 years (including clean-up) ...

The satellite data is showing an acceleration to this rate, of 0.084 mm/yr/yr ... slapping that into the quadratic gives closer to 2 feet rise by year 2100 ... but piling two feet of dirt up is about as trivial as one foot ... call it 2% the cost (per mile) of the 41,000 mile interstate freeway system we built in twenty years here ... and this is all about the East Coast ... the West Coast is benched up 20 feet, in some places 30 feet (in some places 250 feet) ... but there will be a 200 foot tsunami there within 100 years, so no difference eh? ...

California tumbles into the sea
That'll be the day I go
Back to Annandale

Pot is still a federal and VA no no so I'll have to wait some more.

As for sea level rise, it isn't that simple, the rising water doesn't just gently cover the land. The effect of sea level rise is magnified by wave action (or is it the other way round?). Florida won't get covered by the rising water, it will be eroded away by the rising water.

 

[ding]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 9 inches or 24 cm since 1880 calculates to a 1.7 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 3.2 in or 8.1 cm since 1993 calculates to at 3 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

So if the GMSL rises at 3 mm/yr using the topographic contour map of elevations above GMSL how many years do you calculate it will take for most of Florida to vanish?

You do see that the contours are in meters, right? You do see that most of Florida is above 10 meters above GMSL, right? Realistically for Florida to vanish we are talking about a 20m sea level rise. That's 6,667 years.
View attachment 371609

Actually it isn't that simple, the rising water doesn't just gently cover the land. The effect of sea level rise is magnified by wave action. Florida won't get covered by the rising water, it will be eroded away by the rising water.

It's exactly that simple. You don't think there is wave action now too?

Give it up man. This is probably the first time you have ever looked at this in any detail. Which is why you are grasping at straws when confronted with the reality of a 3 mm/yr rise.

 

[ding]

So now is the time to show why I believe 580 ppm is a great number. Let's see who can figure this out?

 

[ding]

See all that spiky behavior of the last 5 million years?

That's what it looks like when the planet is experiencing bipolar glaciation.

600 ppm keeps us out of that.

 

[alang1216]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 9 inches or 24 cm since 1880 calculates to a 1.7 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 3.2 in or 8.1 cm since 1993 calculates to at 3 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

So if the GMSL rises at 3 mm/yr using the topographic contour map of elevations above GMSL how many years do you calculate it will take for most of Florida to vanish?

You do see that the contours are in meters, right? You do see that most of Florida is above 10 meters above GMSL, right? Realistically for Florida to vanish we are talking about a 20m sea level rise. That's 6,667 years.
View attachment 371609

Actually it isn't that simple, the rising water doesn't just gently cover the land. The effect of sea level rise is magnified by wave action. Florida won't get covered by the rising water, it will be eroded away by the rising water.

It's exactly that simple. You don't think there is wave action now too?

Give it up man. This is probably the first time you have ever looked at this in any detail. Which is why you are grasping at straws when confronted with the reality of a 3 mm/yr rise.

Actually I know quite a bit on the subject. The future will be worse but here is the situation today:

In the United States, coastal erosion is responsible for roughly $500 million per year in coastal property loss, including damage to structures and loss of land. To mitigate coastal erosion, the federal government spends an average of $150 million every year on beach nourishment and other shoreline erosion control measures.1 In addition to beach erosion, more than 80,000 acres of coastal wetlands are lost annually—the equivalent of seven football fields disappearing every hour of every day.2 The aggregate result is that the United States lost an area of wetlands larger than the state of Rhode Island between 1998 and 2009.3​

 

[ding]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

What kind of dope do you have? How much sea level rise will it take to flood Florida or Bangladesh?

Global mean sea level has risen about 8–9 inches (21–24 centimeters) since 1880, with about a third of that coming in just the last two and a half decades. The rising water level is mostly due to a combination of meltwater from glaciers and ice sheets and thermal expansion of seawater as it warms. In 2018, global mean sea level was 3.2 inches (8.1 centimeters) above the 1993 average—the highest annual average in the satellite record (1993-present)

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 9 inches or 24 cm since 1880 calculates to a 1.7 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

Using your claim that the GMSL rose 3.2 in or 8.1 cm since 1993 calculates to at 3 mm/yr rise in GMSL. Do you agree?

So if the GMSL rises at 3 mm/yr using the topographic contour map of elevations above GMSL how many years do you calculate it will take for most of Florida to vanish?

You do see that the contours are in meters, right? You do see that most of Florida is above 10 meters above GMSL, right? Realistically for Florida to vanish we are talking about a 20m sea level rise. That's 6,667 years.
View attachment 371609

Actually it isn't that simple, the rising water doesn't just gently cover the land. The effect of sea level rise is magnified by wave action. Florida won't get covered by the rising water, it will be eroded away by the rising water.

It's exactly that simple. You don't think there is wave action now too?

Give it up man. This is probably the first time you have ever looked at this in any detail. Which is why you are grasping at straws when confronted with the reality of a 3 mm/yr rise.

Actually I know quite a bit on the subject. The future will be worse but here is the situation today:

In the United States, coastal erosion is responsible for roughly $500 million per year in coastal property loss, including damage to structures and loss of land. To mitigate coastal erosion, the federal government spends an average of $150 million every year on beach nourishment and other shoreline erosion control measures.1 In addition to beach erosion, more than 80,000 acres of coastal wetlands are lost annually—the equivalent of seven football fields disappearing every hour of every day.2 The aggregate result is that the United States lost an area of wetlands larger than the state of Rhode Island between 1998 and 2009.3​

Dude

 

[ReinyDays]

See all that spiky behavior of the last 5 million years?

That's what it looks like when the planet is experiencing bipolar glaciation.

600 ppm keeps us out of that.

That's kinda a bold statement ... why do you think the current 180-280 ppm oscillation is what causes the glacial/interglacial cycles? ... perhaps it is only an effect of some unknown aspect of the climate system ... would not a 500-600 ppm oscillation give roughly the same effect? ... how does the atmosphere hold this 600 ppm unless we're continually producing CO2 ... we may not be running out of fossil fuels but we're certainly have run out of cheap fossil fuels ... we're already well into the not-so-cheap fossil fuels and soon we'll be into our hey-this-stuff-is-getting-expensive fossil fuels ... the oceans do more than absorb carbon, they also encapsulate it as sugar, proteins, DNA, RNA, enzymes, lipid, the list goes on ... biology sucks up CO2 like food ...

We can see the variations, but we don't know why they exist ... why do you think we can control something if we don't know what we're controlling ...

Research continues ...

 

[ding]

See all that spiky behavior of the last 5 million years?

That's what it looks like when the planet is experiencing bipolar glaciation.

600 ppm keeps us out of that.

That's kinda a bold statement ... why do you think the current 180-280 ppm oscillation is what causes the glacial/interglacial cycles? ... perhaps it is only an effect of some unknown aspect of the climate system ... would not a 500-600 ppm oscillation give roughly the same effect? ... how does the atmosphere hold this 600 ppm unless we're continually producing CO2 ... we may not be running out of fossil fuels but we're certainly have run out of cheap fossil fuels ... we're already well into the not-so-cheap fossil fuels and soon we'll be into our hey-this-stuff-is-getting-expensive fossil fuels ... the oceans do more than absorb carbon, they also encapsulate it as sugar, proteins, DNA, RNA, enzymes, lipid, the list goes on ... biology sucks up CO2 like food ...

We can see the variations, but we don't know why they exist ... why do you think we can control something if we don't know what we're controlling ...

Research continues ...

Because northern hemisphere glaciation occurs at 280 ppm. Here's the research paper that says so.

We show that the CO2 threshold below which glaciation occurs in the Northern Hemisphere (,280 p.p.m.v.) is much lower than that for Antarctica (,750 p.p.m.v.).

(PDF) Thresholds for Cenozoic bipolar glaciation

PDF | The long-standing view of Earth's Cenozoic glacial history calls for the first continental-scale glaciation of Antarctica in the earliest... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on ResearchGate

www.researchgate.net

200 ppm is full on glacier cycle. You can see it on the graph below.

 

[ding]

See all that spiky behavior of the last 5 million years?

That's what it looks like when the planet is experiencing bipolar glaciation.

600 ppm keeps us out of that.

That's kinda a bold statement ... why do you think the current 180-280 ppm oscillation is what causes the glacial/interglacial cycles? ... perhaps it is only an effect of some unknown aspect of the climate system ... would not a 500-600 ppm oscillation give roughly the same effect? ... how does the atmosphere hold this 600 ppm unless we're continually producing CO2 ... we may not be running out of fossil fuels but we're certainly have run out of cheap fossil fuels ... we're already well into the not-so-cheap fossil fuels and soon we'll be into our hey-this-stuff-is-getting-expensive fossil fuels ... the oceans do more than absorb carbon, they also encapsulate it as sugar, proteins, DNA, RNA, enzymes, lipid, the list goes on ... biology sucks up CO2 like food ...

We can see the variations, but we don't know why they exist ... why do you think we can control something if we don't know what we're controlling ...

Research continues ...

The conditions which led to the glacial interglacial cycles is CO2 level of 400 ppm and isolated polar regions from warm marine currents. Conditions which still exist today. Orbital cycles triggered the cycles but we have always had orbital cycles. But it wasn't until the last 5 million years that we had isolated polar regions from warm marine currents and atmospheric CO2 of 400 ppm and orbital cycles.

 

[westwall]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they? You can't handle an extra degree? Every day in the desert human beings enjoy temperature swings of up to 100 degrees. A degree isn't anything to freak out about.

Temperature is not the issue, climate is the issue. If droughts become common in the West, the old fights over water rights will only get worse. If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

And none of that will happen.

Well that is a relief. But how do you know?

Because it has not happened when the planet was MUCH warmer in the past.

 

[Grumblenuts]

Good and bad are a matter of perspective ... there's an area in Europe set aside and the natural environment quickly took over ... a place now considered an excellent example of primordial Europe before humanoids arrived ... about the only place in Europe with fertile soils not under industry cultivation ... just an amazing place ...

Japan has decided to do the same ... allowing the natural world to take over what was agricultural lands ... with every expectation to get a real world example of the islands before human invasion ...

Massive contamination of Cesium-135 is clearly GOOD for the environment ... c.f. Chernobyl and Fukushima ... removing humans is undeniable proof humans are BAD ... thus Covid-19 is GOOD ... ha ha ha ... humans are just the last diseased and putrid bud on a nearly dead branch of the tree of life whose only evolutionary advance is an unpalatable flesh ... nothing eats us except as carrion, and the older the better ...

So let's just presume for a moment that you weren't really interested in killing off all of humanity. Say you have kids, perhaps even grandkids. Maybe you even love them and not just because of all the time, money, and effort you've invested into raising them..
Question:

We also know that 99% of all climatology studies are pure computer derived fiction that have zero relationship to reality.

Is that your opinion as well? If so, please define "We" for both of you.. and do supply anything reputably authoritative for backup. In other words, anything worth anyone's precious time,.. meaning other than from like minded posers and kooks or well documented and paid deniers.. And thanks!

 

[ding]

other than from like minded posers and kooks or well documented and paid deniers.

For the second time...

No one is denying the GHG effect of gases in the atmosphere. We are arguing against their models containing unrealistic feedback responses and unrealistic forecasts of GHG emissions.

But what I am arguing in this thread is the idiocy of worrying about an atmospheric CO2 concentration of 580 ppm. It's actually a good level to have if we want to avoid extensive northern hemisphere glaciation.