Is the world "better off" at 580 ppm or 300 ppm of CO2?

[ding]

According to the IPCC it looks like 520 ppm is the lowest prediction for the year 2100.

That's a good thing because 580 ppm is a nice safe number for humanity. That will prevent another ice age.

 

[ding]

You can see how the temperature (red curve) did not respond to the rise in CO2 (blue curve) during the current interglacial cycle. That's because CO2 doesn't drive climate change. CO2 only reinforces climate change.

 

[alang1216]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

 

[ding]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

Don't hold your breath. The sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the last 6,000 years.

We're in an interglacial cycle. Have been for the past 22,000 years or so.

 

[alang1216]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they? You can't handle an extra degree? Every day in the desert human beings enjoy temperature swings of up to 100 degrees. A degree isn't anything to freak out about.

Temperature is not the issue, climate is the issue. If droughts become common in the West, the old fights over water rights will only get worse. If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

 

[ding]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

So which would you prefer 300 ppm or 580 ppm?

 

[ding]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they? You can't handle an extra degree? Every day in the desert human beings enjoy temperature swings of up to 100 degrees. A degree isn't anything to freak out about.

Temperature is not the issue, climate is the issue. If droughts become common in the West, the old fights over water rights will only get worse. If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

Old wives tale.

But again... we are in an interglacial cycle. Temperatures have been rising for the past 22,000 years or so.

Water rights will be an issue regardless. That's more of a function of population growth. Do you want to regulate that too?

 

[alang1216]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

Don't hold your breath. The sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the last 6,000 years.

We're in an interglacial cycle. Have been for the past 22,000 years or so.

We haven't been pumping CO2 in the atmosphere for 6,000 years. Glaciers around the globe are melting. What happens if the Antarctic Ice Sheets decide to speed up their movement and slip into the oceans?

 

[ding]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish, as would NY, LA, and most coastal cities. Chaos.

What kind of dope are you smoking. Sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the past 6,000 years. It was rising at a much faster rate prior to that.

So by the year 2100 it will have raised by about 1 foot and that will happen regardless of the CO2 level in the atmosphere.

 

[ding]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

Don't hold your breath. The sea level has been rising at 3 mm per year for the last 6,000 years.

We're in an interglacial cycle. Have been for the past 22,000 years or so.

We haven't been pumping CO2 in the atmosphere for 6,000 years. Glaciers around the globe are melting. What happens if the Antarctic Ice Sheets decide to speed up their movement and slip into the oceans?

That's exactly my point. We have not been pumping CO2 into the atmosphere for 22,000 years and temperatures have been rising for the last 22,000 years. Glaciers around the globe have been melting for 22,000 years too. Just like the sea level has been rising for 22,000 years. And during those years CO2 lagged temperature by 800 years. Which proves that CO2 does not drive climate change. It reinforces climate change.

 

[ding]

If sea levels rise Florida may mostly vanish

This is an elevation contour map in meters of Florida relative to the mean sea level.

How many years do you calculate that it will take for Florida to mostly vanish due to the rise in sea level?

Please show your math. Or you could just reply with, "Hey, ding, that was a really stupid statement I made and I see your point."

 

[ding]

So no real impact at 580 ppm. But this graphic compares what northern hemisphere glaciation looked like 18,000 years ago versus today. 18,000 years ago was ~4,000 years into the current interglacial cycle which means it was actually worse 22,000 years ago.

The graphic on the left is what the earth would look like if atmospheric CO2 was ~230 ppm?

Are we learning yet?

 

[ReinyDays]

After 50 years of warnings about too much human generated CO2 causing increased GW, perhaps runaway GW,.. now too much is seemingly never enough. Ya know, CO2 doesn't really do shit! OMG, too little CO2 in the atmosphere will soon be causing ice to form at the poles!

What do you mean by "too much"? ... and use temperature as our measure ... the IPCC report gives a 2ºC increase over the next 100 years ... this is the same as difference as between Chicago and Peoria ... damn near commuting distance ... just gives Peoria laughing right when there's a freeze in Chicago ...

I didn't quote your cute little charts ... they all use the statistical trick of "limiting the sample pool to drive up probabilities" ... just like the Monty Hall Paradox ... it's not a paradox, it's a fraud ... that's why it never happened on the show ... annual values are strictly weather, in the sense they're all subject to the dynamic forces at play ... climatology tries to "average out" these natural fluctuations by using longer periods of data for averaging, typically 100 years ... it's cooler today than yesterday, that doesn't mean we're glaciating ...

 

[ReinyDays]

So 300 ppm or 580ppm?

Equal ... the same ... "within instrumentation error" ...

 

[ReinyDays]

View attachment 371588

This map is very wrong ... there should be a line due west out of Miami ... straight across ... above that line is not subject to sea level inondation ...

The Everglades Parkway ...

 

[ding]

View attachment 371588

This map is very wrong ... there should be a line due west out of Miami ... straight across ... above that line is not subject to sea level inondation ...

The Everglades Parkway ...

No. It's not. It's a higher resolution map than the one you are referring too.

 

[westwall]

After 50 years of warnings about too much human generated CO2 causing increased GW, perhaps runaway GW,.. now too much is seemingly never enough. Ya know, CO2 doesn't really do shit! OMG, too little CO2 in the atmosphere will soon be causing ice to form at the poles!

Why would there be runaway greenhouse effect? It was provably 2.3 degrees warmer during the medieval warming period and nothing happened other than England challenged France for wine production and this little thing called the Renaissance occurred.

 

[ding]

So 300 ppm or 580ppm?

Equal ... the same ... "within instrumentation error" ...

The same as what? Today?

 

[alang1216]

ALL past evidence. The paleoclimate record is pretty well known. Whenever it has been warmer life has thrived.

I'm not concerned with humanity going extinct so much as my family going extinct.

Why would they?

My family probably wouldn't, we Americans have enough wealth to more or adapt, hey, I may get beachfront property if sea level rises enough. A poor farmer in Bangladesh whose land gets inundated, may not be so lucky.

So which would you prefer 300 ppm or 580 ppm?

No idea. Whatever it is today, that is where I'd vote to keep it.

 

[westwall]

View attachment 371577

You can see how the temperature (red curve) did not respond to the rise in CO2 (blue curve) during the current interglacial cycle. That's because CO2 doesn't drive climate change. CO2 only reinforces climate change.

No, atmospheric CO2 increases BECAUSE the temp increased, it has no bearing on temp at all.