Is the West angling to make Belarus the next Ukraine?

[Tom Paine 1949]

Here is a Russian nationalist view of the election protests in Belorussia. I don’t usually agree with Russian nationalists, and I certainly can’t confirm details reported here, but the overall political analysis of the situation there is interesting. These demonstrations against the decades long dictatorial Lukashenko regime in Belarus may initiate the start of new serious problems in Eastern Europe between Russia and NATO. The author of this piece claims involvement of the CIA and the Ukrainian SBU in a complex plot to make an anti-Russian coup in this poverty-stricken and extraordinarily corrupt “independent” country bordering Russia (but made up of Russians):

***

Now the events in Belarus force me to address this very unpleasant topic: Belarus is facing a complex and dangerous crisis which might well result in a major crisis inside Belarus and even a loss of sovereignty. But first, before we look into what just happened, let me begin by a quick “mini-primer” about Belarus. Here is what I think everybody ought to know about this country:

• Belarus is a completely artificial creation, even more artificial than the Ukraine. At least in the Ukraine there were “westerners” (Galicians) who truly were not Russians at all (you can think of them as the “real Ukrainians” if you want) and whose hatred for everything Russian was every bit as rabid as the one of the Interahamwe of Rwanda. There is no meaningful equivalent to the Banderites in Belarus.
• Lukashnko was no more pro-Russian than Ianukovich. This is crucial. Lukashenko was always pro-Lukashenko, not pro-Russia. Both the West and Lukashenko like to say that Belarus is the only real Russian ally. This is false. Technically, Russia and Belarus are supranational union states. However, it is true that Lukashenko tried to use the historical identity between the Russian and Belarusian people to demand that Russia help him out over and over and over again. And until recently, Russia did.
• As a country, Belarus is a quasi perfect police state with an extremely competent and feared KGB (yes, in Belarus they kept the name) which controls everything and everybody. This is also crucial for reasons I will explain below.
• As for the Kremlin, it always wanted to foster a reunification with Belarus but this process was never fully completed due to regular problems, and even crises, between Moscow and Minsk. Russia poured immense sums of money to keep the Belarusian society from crashing.
• Finally, Belarus is really a poor country with very limited resources. For Russia, however, Belarus is a crucial military ally, one which plays a central role in Russian defense plans. If the US and NATO will be successful in taking control of the country, this will be a major strategic threat for the Russian security....

Here is what really happened. It now appears that the Ukrainian secret service SBU (which does nothing without Uncle Sam’s approval) mounted a complex covert operation to try to get Belarus and Russia into a confrontation. The entire operation, including recruitment, purchase of airline tickets, etc was, in fact, run from the Ukraine. This was also the biggest mistake the Ukies did: they did not hide their actions well enough and it took the Russians special services less than 24 hours to figure out the entire plan and leak it to the media (in Russian). The fine details are still being ascertained...

But there is much more to this story. Following a meeting between Lukashenko and Pompeo, the US will now open a (very big) embassy in Minsk. For years the West has been calling Lukashenko all sorts of names, and now it is suddenly “all smiles”...

[Sidebar: yes, I know, Lukashenko is called the “last dictator of Europe” and he is not popular in the West.... Over and over again, Lukashenko tried to get support (meaning “money”) from the West and now Pompeo & Co. have apparently decided to make “their” son of a bitch “our” son of a bitch. What I mean by that Lukashenko was the textbook case of the “our son of a bitch” phenomenon, but not for the West – for Russia. I furthermore believe that like all “sons of bitches” (including “theirs” and “ours”) – Lukashenko has now turned into a liability for Russia.] ...

Putin and Russia are facing a very serious crisis in Belarus | The Vineyard of the Saker

Here is a BBC article for a normal Western view: Belarus protests: more than 6,000 arrested, says interior ministry

 

[Blackrook]

We should stay out.

 

[Correll]

We should stay out.

agreed. we should have zero involvement.


the cold war is over. we do not need to be looking for conflicts with russia.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

We should stay out.

agreed. we should have zero involvement.
the cold war is over. we do not need to be looking for conflicts with russia.

And yet the U.S is right now sanctioning German, Russian and Dutch companies to stop the building of a mutually beneficial NordStream2 oil and gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What is with that?

 

[Blackrook]

We should stay out.

agreed. we should have zero involvement.
the cold war is over. we do not need to be looking for conflicts with russia.

And yet the U.S is right now sanctioning German, Russian and Dutch companies to stop the building of a mutually beneficial NordStream2 oil and gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What is with that?

Our government is run by people who forgot that Russia is no longer a Communist country.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

Our government is run by people who forgot that Russia is no longer a Communist country

I think it is worth pointing out that it is Trump & Pompeo that now play these games, just as before it was Obama & Hillary. It seems to me the language changes, but the underlying reality does not.

Here is an update from the same source:

“While many people did sincerely and peacefully protest, a number of criminal elements were recruited (for US dollars) and they instantly attacked the security forces with great skill and violence: cops were lynched, some were shot (at least one), agent provocateurs even ran over cops with their cars, one guy was caught with 10’000 USD in the streets during the riots and his explanation was “this is my money” ... others were caught with knives, baseball bats, Molotov cocktails, radios, flash-bang grenades (from Poland).... Many of the hardcore rioters have multiple criminal convictions in the past and were well known by the authorities. Last but not least, some of these rioters had Ukie-style Nazi tattoos all over their bodies. What else is new….?

“Predictably, the riot police retaliated in kind and started beating the crap out of anybody breaking the law and, alas, also beating the crap left and right of people who were not doing anything illegal (including severely beaten up journos, including Russian ones)....

“Personally, I can only repeat that I have zero confidence in Lukashenko and I don’t believe that an independent Belarus is viable. The only solution I see is a full integration of Belarus into Russia.”

A quick update on Belarus | The Vineyard of the Saker

A bird's eye view of the vineyard

thesaker.is

 

[Correll]

We should stay out.

agreed. we should have zero involvement.
the cold war is over. we do not need to be looking for conflicts with russia.

And yet the U.S is right now sanctioning German, Russian and Dutch companies to stop the building of a mutually beneficial NordStream2 oil and gas pipeline from Russia to Germany. What is with that?

imo, it is Trump bowing to political pressure from the right and the left. it runs counter to his campaign of non, or at less less interventionism.


it is worth noting though, that if russia is supposed to be the big bad, then making your winter heat dependent on the russians, is not the action of a serious people.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

t is worth noting though, that if russia is supposed to be the big bad, then making your winter heat dependent on the russians, is not the action of a serious people.

I think Germany knows best who they should buy their gas and oil from. Why should they be dependent on the U.S. which sells oil and (LN) gas at much higher prices than the Russians do? Frankly, Germany is no pushover for the Russians, and Putin knows it. German politicians would be wise to stand up for themselves (and Europe) against U.S. bullying.

 

[ESay]

t is worth noting though, that if russia is supposed to be the big bad, then making your winter heat dependent on the russians, is not the action of a serious people.

I think Germany knows best who they should buy their gas and oil from. Why should they be dependent on the U.S. which sells oil and (LN) gas at much higher prices than the Russians do? Frankly, Germany is no pushover for the Russians, and Putin knows it. German politicians would be wise to stand up for themselves (and Europe) against U.S. bullying.

The main question for Germany is why they are ready to spend billions of dollars on mutual pipeline with Russia, while the alternatives are already exist.

About Bearus and Lukashenko. I think that he will remain in power for another term. The US are busy with their home matters; Europe is seeking to improve relations with Russia and few are interested there in one anotger political conflict with Moscow; after almost 3 decades of Lukashenko's rule, there is no organized nation-wide opposition in Belarus now. But this term will be the last for him, it seems.

 

[Correll]

t is worth noting though, that if russia is supposed to be the big bad, then making your winter heat dependent on the russians, is not the action of a serious people.

I think Germany knows best who they should buy their gas and oil from. Why should they be dependent on the U.S. which sells oil and (LN) gas at much higher prices than the Russians do? Frankly, Germany is no pushover for the Russians, and Putin knows it. German politicians would be wise to stand up for themselves (and Europe) against U.S. bullying.

we are allies. that makes it our business. if germany knows why it is doing this, they need to share that information with us.

if we are in a war with the russians, and winter hits and our allies, the germans bow out because putin turns off their heat, millions of americans could die because of that.


what i want, is to pull america out of nato. teh cold war is over. germany is not a push over for russia and if they trust russia enough to put them in charge of their heat, then they must trust them enough to stay on their side of poland.

 

[Olde Europe]

Here is what really happened. It now appears that the Ukrainian secret service SBU (which does nothing without Uncle Sam’s approval) mounted a complex covert operation to try to get Belarus and Russia into a confrontation. The entire operation, including recruitment, purchase of airline tickets, etc was, in fact, run from the Ukraine. This was also the biggest mistake the Ukies did: they did not hide their actions well enough and it took the Russians special services less than 24 hours to figure out the entire plan and leak it to the media (in Russian). The fine details are still being ascertained...

You know, the guy is a conspiracy crackpot, right? He knows - KNOWS! - things. Things, I tells ya!

The central piece of evidence is a "leak" (hilarity alert) by the "Russians special services". To the renowned-around-the-world for their fact-checking "penza.kp.ru".

So, we know (even if the good "Saker" doesn't) we're dealing with propaganda, in this case, Putin trying to make a case that "Ukraine bad". While that's as surprising as sunrise in the morning, we know not one thing about the underlying allegation, and about its veracity in particular.

I mean, really... With a defense budget of a whopping half-billion euros, and a military mostly equipped with Soviet-era weaponry, Belarus is a major military asset for Russia? That's ridiculousness, squared. Of course, Putin doesn't want the territory taken over by NATO, and that's pretty much the beginning and the end of the whole story. The most troubling information in all of this is freedom-fighter extraordinaire, the Pompous Pompeo, shaking hands with Lukashenko. Wherever that one is around, you can pretty much tell bad deals are being cut. With just a few months for him to mess things up (fingers crossed), it will all amount to a big fat nothing.

There isn't a reason on earth to go into hyperventilation mode about it.

 

[Tom Paine 1949]

The situation in Belarus continues to worsen for Lukashenko, although he has received guarantees from Putin that his military alliance with Russia will hold. If Western powers do not try to militarily intervene (unlikely), and Lukashenko is overthrown or forced to retire (or is killed), it is still difficult to see how the situation can be resolved politically.
Of course with outside financial aid and grudging popular support within the country the Belarus opposition politician and schoolteacher Tsikhanouskaya, now in Lithuania, could emerge victorious. However her inexperience and weak real base within the country makes it likely that would be only temporary. Putin may feel he has no choice but to move in to oversee new elections...

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