Indiana doesn't Matter- Trump has GOP nom sewn up

[Zander]

Sorry Trump haters......According to Princeton University, Trump has a 97% probability of winning even without Indiana. Get over it.

Media types want you to get your knickers in a twist about Indiana. However, the data suggests that it doesn’t matter any more. Rationally speaking, it is probably time to stop writing so much about the Republican race for delegates. Also, may we have a moratorium on “brokered-convention” articles please?

Today I write about the PEC delegate snapshot. It is based on data posted here. All polls are current, including Trump +6% in Indiana (n=3 polls). Based on Tuesday’s voting, in which Cruz underperformed polls by a median of 4 percentage points, I will no longer assign a Cruz bonus. Note that Trump overperformed polls by a median of 8 percentage points.

As of today, for recently-unpolled states (NE,WV,OR,WA,MT,NM,SD) I will start using Google Correlate-based estimates. Of those states, Trump is favored in West Virginia (34 delegates) and is near-tied in Oregon and Washington (proportional representation). The rest are Cruz states.

Put through the PEC delegate simulator, the median delegate count is 1333 (interquartile range 1304-1339). The probability of getting to 1237 delegates is 98%:

What if we assume that Trump will lose Indiana? In that case the median drops to 1284 delegates (interquartile range 1278-1287). The probability of getting to 1237 is now 97%:

Indiana may not matter any more
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[JakeStarkey]

Trump will win the nomination then get less % of the vote than Goldwater in 1964.

 

[BULLDOG]

The nomination doesn't matter. Trump will collapse in the general.

 

[Avatar4321]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

 

[william the wie]

Hillary being Hillary is Trump's only chance

 

[BULLDOG]

Hillary being Hillary is Trump's only chance

Trump has no chance.

 

[TemplarKormac]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

Looks like you're the one making excuses now. Cruz lost. Time to face facts. His little alliance with Kasich ended him. He got destroyed in the Acela primaries, he's the one who got massacred.

Let's try not to be a poor sport.

 

[william the wie]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

There are two other very good reasons:

Tempt Sanders to go third party

Get more air time.

 

[Avatar4321]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

Looks like you're the one making excuses now. Cruz lost. Time to face facts. His little alliance with Kasich ended him.

Race isn't over. The fact that you guys want it to be doesn't change it

 

[JakeStarkey]

Sanders will not go third party.

If Trump is denied the nomination, he will not go third party this year.

He will create a new party.

 

[TemplarKormac]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

Looks like you're the one making excuses now. Cruz lost. Time to face facts. His little alliance with Kasich ended him.

Race isn't over. The fact that you guys want it to be doesn't change it

It already is. No matter how much you don't want it to be, it's over. Cruz is mathematically eliminated. And if anyone else but Trump is the nominee, there will be serious repercussions for the GOP.

I'm sorry it's so difficult for you to accept.

 

[Zander]

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

Looks like you're the one making excuses now. Cruz lost. Time to face facts. His little alliance with Kasich ended him.

Race isn't over. The fact that you guys want it to be doesn't change it

You've been wrong, then wrong some more, then wrong again. You need a reality check.

If trumpets are trying to claim Indiana doesntip matter than Trump is going to get massacres there and they are making excuses

Sam Wang (the founder of the Princeton Election Consortium) is not a Trump supporter. He is a scientist. .Psephology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

They have Trump at 98% with Indiana and 97% without it.

 

[Zander]

Hillary being Hillary is Trump's only chance

Trump has no chance.

^^^^^^ Self soothing.^^^^^^^^

 

[basquebromance]

President Trump will save America from 3 horrible women: Crooked Hillary, Ugly Carly, and Lyin Ted.