Trump Has GOP Nomination Nailed Down; Here's the Math

[JimBowie1958]

Trump currently has 994 delegates pledged to him on the first ballot.

Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?

Lets use the current polls to calculate what Trump will win, but give him only 65% of the delegates, and he has been doing way better than that in states he wins, and assume Cruze gets 100% of the states Trump loses.

Indiana: Trump +37
Nebraska: Trump loses
West Virginia: Trump +22
Oregon: Trump +18
Washington: Trump +28
California: Trump +111
New Jersey: Trump +34
New Mexico: Trump loss
Montana: Trump loss
South Dakota:Trump loss
Trump goes into convention with 1241 delegates.

In reality Trump will sweep West Virginia and New Jersey, so he will have an additional 29 delegates over this predicted amount.

With Trumps momentum building, he will probably win more states than this.But if Trump loses Indiana, and he is up 6% with the wind at his back, so its very unlikely, but if Trump loses Indiana then the nomination is still open in all practical considerations.

But he is not going to lose Indiana and this nomination race is over in practical terms after Indiana.

 

[Manchester]

 

[JimBowie1958]

LUV IT! THANK YOU!

 

[Manchester]

LUV IT! THANK YOU!

You're welcome Jim. Glad you like.

 

[JimBowie1958]

LUV IT! THANK YOU!

You're welcome Jim. Glad you like.

Oh, yeah, it really beats the hell out of the alternative.

 

[Manchester]

LUV IT! THANK YOU!

You're welcome Jim. Glad you like.

Oh, yeah, it really beats the hell out of the alternative.

I tend to agree. As I have said before, I don't believe one candidate in this presidential race is fit to do the job.

 

[Avatar4321]

So cruz has a 58% chance of winning Indiana and you're putting it in Trump's camp? Interesting choice but we will see Tuesday how that goes.

 

[DarkFury]

 

[eagle1462010]

There are unbound delegates in Pennsylvania still in the air................and many are committed to their district votes.............54 on the line there.......and is still in question........................that changes the equation somewhat.................

It's gonna be close...........and Cruz, Kasich and the establishment knows it...............and the people are seeing the establishment trying to change the voters choices and is pissing them off..............which would be a up yours vote coming up in the final 10 states..........could change the playing field.

 

[DarkFury]

LUV IT! THANK YOU!

You're welcome Jim. Glad you like.

Oh, yeah, it really beats the hell out of the alternative.

I tend to agree. As I have said before, I don't believe one candidate in this presidential race is fit to do the job.

Clinton could be our Merkel.

 

[eagle1462010]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Indiana Republican Presidential Primary

The latest polls have the race between Trump and Cruz very close.................With Trump having a small edge..................will probably be a battle...............no guarantees with the polls this close............

 

[eagle1462010]

These guys have been pretty accurate so far..........and they believe Cruz will take Indiana...............they don't just use polls but use voting trends in neighboring states to come to a prediction................

Ind. Republican Primary Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight

As I said.....this is going down to the wire.........................unbound delegates may very well decide it............Places like Pennsylvania may play a serious roll in it.....................................Only time will tell.

 

[Avatar4321]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

 

[eagle1462010]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

Cruz chose Carly trying to throw out another article to block 1237...........Generally you don't pick a VP unless you win the nomination........

To the wire.........yep...........gonna be close............

To the will of the people..........Trump has already gotten more votes than Romney at the end of the primaries, and that is with 10 states left..........Trump will also surpass the record number of votes set under Bush...............

Hardly stats that back up your claim.........and denies the fact that you support one that has far less votes.............

 

[DarkFury]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

Picking Carly a great move? Going into a state {California} where she FIRED 30k workers?

 

[SwimExpert]

Trump currently has 994 delegates pledged to him on the first ballot.

Who's Winning the Presidential Delegate Count?

Lets use the current polls to calculate what Trump will win, but give him only 65% of the delegates, and he has been doing way better than that in states he wins, and assume Cruze gets 100% of the states Trump loses.

Indiana: Trump +37
Nebraska: Trump loses
West Virginia: Trump +22
Oregon: Trump +18
Washington: Trump +28
California: Trump +111
New Jersey: Trump +34
New Mexico: Trump loss
Montana: Trump loss
South Dakota:Trump loss
Trump goes into convention with 1241 delegates.

In reality Trump will sweep West Virginia and New Jersey, so he will have an additional 29 delegates over this predicted amount.

With Trumps momentum building, he will probably win more states than this.But if Trump loses Indiana, and he is up 6% with the wind at his back, so its very unlikely, but if Trump loses Indiana then the nomination is still open in all practical considerations.

But he is not going to lose Indiana and this nomination race is over in practical terms after Indiana.

Haven't you posted this before? You're making wild assumptions with nothing to justify them.

 

[SwimExpert]

Actually, I believe you were looking for this....

 

[dannyboys]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

Picking Carly a great move? Going into a state {California} where she FIRED 30k in workers?

I bet when the primary moves to Cal. Miss Carly won't be within a thousand miles of the state.
Whoever advised Cruz to pick her is obviously being paid big bucks sent to an offshore bank account by the Trump campaign.
Like White Supremacists infiltrating the negro fashion industry and designing white ball caps with three foot long peeks on them and jeans designed to be worn at the knees.

 

[DarkFury]

It will come down to the wire. Which is why it's absolutely absurd to pretend it's over and call for Cruz to drop out. Or why it's absurd to declare Trump the will of the people when the people haven't finished speaking. Especially when we are going into States more favorable to Cruz.

It's also why Cruz picking Carly at this point was a great move because it breaks up Trump's momentum by getting the media off the stories of his "inevitability".

Picking Carly a great move? Going into a state {California} where she FIRED 30k in workers?

I bet when the primary moves to Cal. Miss Carly won't be within a thousand miles of the state.
Whoever advised Cruz to pick her is obviously being paid big bucks sent to an offshore bank account by the Trump campaign.
Like White Supremacists infiltrating the negro fashion industry and designing white ball caps with three foot long peeks on them and jeans designed to be worn at the knees.

Cruz is beat before he walks in. How can he complain about the out sourcing of jobs when his VP has out sourced more jobs than anybody in the race.

 

[jon_berzerk]

--LOL

true