Ted Cruz Might Win It All

[JimBowie1958]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

 

[Silhouette]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

 

[TheOldSchool]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

You tell 'em Silh. I demand a birth certificate! What's Cruz so scared of?!

 

[Moonglow]

Cruz is really a communist country dark horse candidate...

 

[JimBowie1958]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

 

[Moonglow]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

 

[Bruce_T_Laney]

The calendar for the GOP primaries/caucuses and how they will proportion their delgates is very different this time around, especially in contrast with 2012.

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

There is the straight caucus result with no threshold at all.
This will be done in:
Iowa - Feb 1

Nevada- Feb 23
Colorado - Feb 23

N Dakota - March 1
Wyoming - March 1

Illinois - March 15 direct election at district level with 12 at large winner take all state vote

Most of the primaries are proportional results from one of mostly two methods.
One is a threshold method based on the statewide popular vote, most often 15%. This means that they take the total vote of all candidates that finish above 15% and then divy out the delegates based on that proportion.
This will be done in:
New Hampshire - 10% - Feb 9

Alaska - Feb 23
Massachusetts - Feb 23
Minnesota - Feb 23

Vermont - 20% threshold - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Virginia - March 1 completely proportional, no threshold

Hawaii - March 8
Idaho - March 8
Michigan - March 8

Missouri - March 15
N Carolina - March 15

Utah - March 22

The second common method is to give delegates out on a Congressional district basis. If the winning candidate gets over 50% he gets ALL the delegates for that district. If no one gets a majority, then the top vote winner gets two delegates and the second place finisher gets one. There is also usually an at-large slate of delgates as well that sin on a state wide vote and apportioned with some threshold, usually.
This will be done in:
Alabama - Feb 23
Arkansas - Feb 23
Georgia - Feb 23

Oklahoma - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)
Tennessee - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets 66%+, he gets all delegates)
Texas - March 1 (hybrid, if statewide winner gets majority, he gets all delegates)

Kansas- March 5
Kentucky- March 5
Maine- March 5
Louisiana- March 5

Mississippi - March 8

Then there is the Winner-takes-all method.
This will be done in:
South Carolina - Feb 20 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Florida - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all
Ohio - March 15 with district and at large delegates chosen winner take all

Arizona - March 22

Starting in April 'Winner Takes All' is the dominant format, this will be done in: Wisconsin, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nebraska, California, Montana, New Jersey, and S Dakota.

Proportional states are New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Oregon, Washington (State), and New Mexico.

Now, for Trump to win it all, he has to place well in Iowa, not necessarily win it, and win New Hampshire. I say this because primary voters are very fickle and are prey to the Bandwagon Effect. If Trump does not finish in the top 3 in Iowa,and does not win in New Hampshire, then he goes into S Carolina very weak and he will lose alot of opportunity voters and many of his independents will simply stay home.

This is where Ted Cruz' 'second mouse' strategy promises to pay off if Trump falters. If Cruz wins Iowa, and I am pretty sure he will, then he he places well in New Hampshire, he can swing a good portion of the Trump support his way and squeak out a slim win in S Carolina and win ALL those delegates and become the delegate count front runner.

Jeb Bush can surprise a lot of people in Iowa also and finish decently in New Hampshire to try to keep some momentum going into Florida, his home turf, and win a huge block of delegates there.

So, in summation, Trump is the front runner in the polls, but seems to have little organizational strength which is a typical nooby mistake in politics. His support can flatten out in a heart beat like a giant electoral souffle if he suddenly looks like a loser. Everything I am reading right now says that Trump is not building a ground game anywhere. Winning at precinct caucuses is critical for any ground game and it is not something that can be over night. You need precinct leaders familiar with Roberts Rules of order with lists of supporters in the precinct and a slate of delegates ready to go to the county caucus. Whoever wins the chair in the precinct meeting will have control and be able to ramrod through a preselected slate of delegates with a quick motion-sustain-sustain sequence that could take less than a second.

But Cruz does have an excellent ground game and is well organized in every state with a carefully recruited set of organizers at every congressional district, from what I read and hear.

Though Trump is strong in the polls, he at this time looks like little more than anti-establishment camoflage for Cruz.

So it is starting to look like a good probability that Trump loses Iowa to Cruz, he barely wins in New Hampshire, his base sages into S Carolina where he squeaks a win, and then rolls on to huge gains in March. But if the establishment does take out Trump, Cruz is the best positioned to pick up the pieces and carry the Conservative flag to victory starting in S Carolina.

Whoever is the leader by April will probably win with the series of winner take all states that come in that time frame, and my money is on Cruz for the upset, because he has money, strategy and organization all three, where Trump has money and name recognition, and Jeb has money and establishment support.

Cruz could win the Republican Primary...

Bush is banking on New Hampshire because Iowa is most likely Cruz and if Trump loses both Iowa and New Hampshire he would need South Carolina to stay in and by then I am banking Cruz take that state along with Nevada then put a nail in Trump run for the Oval Office...

 

[TheOldSchool]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

You might have a point if Cruz released his long form birth certificate. Which he won't. Does Rafael Eduardo Cruz have something to hide? Obviously yes.

 

[candycorn]

The math is looking good for him.

The math is looking fucking awesome for Hillary.

Give liberally to Teddy's campaign: tedcruz.com

 

[JimBowie1958]

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

As long as the Mom is 18, as always. When Obama was born I think the law was the mom had to be 21, hence the claims of many birthers that Obama was not born a US citizen. I think the more important issue is that the GOP did not do due diligence in vetting their opposition.

 

[JimBowie1958]

The math is looking good for him.

The math is looking fucking awesome for Hillary.

Give liberally to Teddy's campaign: tedcruz.com

How will Hillary run from Prison?

I hear she looks even worse in orange.

 

[Silhouette]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So because men and women are equal under the 14th Amedment, a child sired by an American man overseas to a foreign woman raising the child in a foreign country may also become president?

Or was the long-settled question of law only in favor of this arrangement when one of the parents was American maternal, not paternal?

 

[Indeependent]

Cruz loves Business Visas...a non-starter for me.

 

[Katzndogz]

Trump will win the majority, if not all the primaries. Cruz will come in a close second winning some primaries.

The republican establishment will move for a brokered conventio to make a last ditch effort to propel Bush or Rubio as the nominee.

Trump will tell Cruz to give Trump the Cruz delegates in exchange for the vice presidency. If percentages do not change from today, that will give Trump 70% of the vote and end dreams of a brokered convention.

 

[JimBowie1958]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So because men and women are equal under the 14th Amedment, a child sired by an American man overseas to a foreign woman raising the child in a foreign country may also become president?

Or was the long-settled question of law only in favor of this arrangement when one of the parents was American maternal, not paternal?

I am no authority, of course, but I dont think gender plays a role. If the child is born outside our state/territorial borders, one parent of adult age MUST be an American citizen for the child to have American citizenship.

I think that should be changed to also include births inside US borders as well.

 

[browsing deer]

The math is looking good for him.

The math is looking fucking awesome for Hillary.

Give liberally to Teddy's campaign: tedcruz.com

How will Hillary run from Prison?

I hear she looks even worse in orange.

I think she looks great in orange! It is the new black! She should wear it every day, with a number

 

[Eaglewings]

 

[BULLDOG]

So being born in Kenya with a US citizen for a Mom would be okay?

As long as the Mom is 18, as always. When Obama was born I think the law was the mom had to be 21, hence the claims of many birthers that Obama was not born a US citizen. I think the more important issue is that the GOP did not do due diligence in vetting their opposition.

So you think all that birther crap was over her age? You know better than that.

 

[Pete7469]

A Ted Cruz presidency is the most ideal result.

I don't believe any other candidate will do more to roll back regressive policy and redundant ineffective programs.

\

 

[bodecea]

I read that Ted Cruz was born in Canada. I'm not a "birther" and never have been. Doesn't matter. US Bedrock Law declares that anyone running for US Presidency must be naturally born on US soil or outposts. Ted Cruz, no matter how good of a president he would have made...and he would have made a good one I think, has to be born on US soil or outposts.

This is a Constitutional issue that has long been settled in favor of the American citizen born overseas. They are considered natural born Americans for all intents and purposes under US law to include running for President.

So...if Cruz was born in Communist China to an American born mother and lived there for many years then came to the U.S....that's totally legit?