Very early. Things can change overnight with the capitulation of one of our trading partners.
Most serious people know this. Most serious people know not to project too far.
A majority of us continue to hope for the best, even if we didn't vote for him.
.
You yourself agreed that much of the recent DOW drops/fluctuations were mostly due to the Trumps tariffs/trade threats.
Me: 'Is the recent DOW drop primarily (not completely - primarily) to do with Trump' s tariffs/trade threats.
YES OR NO?'
You: Yes, I think so.
Dow futures slump more than 300 points as fears of a U.S.-China trade war ratchet up
The OP was not saying we are in for a long term, major trade war FOR CERTAIN. He only was saying (if I read it correctly) that Trump's recent trade threats are moronic and are causing nothing but turmoil and price rises. And if it continues - it will hurt mainstream America far more then it will probably help it.
And he is absolutely right in this, IMO.
Sure, the tariffs could end tomorrow/soon...but it looks VERY unlikely.
Trump has - more or less - painted himself into a corner...he politically cannot back down first. He has been crowing about these stupid tariffs for years.
And those Trump is attacking (Canada, Mexico, the EU, China, etc.) have shown absolutely ZERO indication that they will not match Trump's tariffs tit for tat.
Yes, there is no guarantee that this thing could get VERY ugly. But, right now, no one seems to be showing ANY indication of backing down. A ginormous game of macroeconomic chicken.
BTW - politically, Trump is being an idiot on these tariffs. Most people think the economy is doing well (I am NOT one of them - just as I thought under Obama). The stock market WAS booming, official unemployment was low...things looked great.
At the very least, he should have waited to do his tariff idea until after this November. And I bet you most of the Republican big shots wish he had as well.