I was wrong about Covid 19, and you probably was too.

[flacaltenn]

I put this in Politics because if I put it in health, few will see it. As well as politics of this virus was clouding my mind in the same way it has clouded all of our minds.
As mentioned before, my son is a Respiratory Care Specialist at one of the nations leading Children's hospitals and my daughter is a Respiratory Therapist at a large metropolitan hospital/trauma center. When I say they are on the front lines of this, I mean they are on the front lines.
Up until Friday, I was not that concerned about getting it, or my wife or the two of them. Like most, I was comfortable in the knowledge that it is primarily a concern for the very old/folks with underlying illness.
That is no longer the case.
This weekend, all over the country hospitals are getting much younger patients that require life saving care - and they have no other illness. And the numbers you are seeing reported are not representative of the actual numbers. It is higher.
Like many, I scoffed at all of these restrictions the government was laying out. 4 states with "stay at home" orders. I thought this was over reacting.
Until I got a call from both my kids. Especially my daughter, upset and for the first time afraid and scared. "It is really bad here Dad, we are getting more and more and they are getting younger".
A 32 year old, who 48 hours earlier was at work, feeling a little funny. Last night he was on life support and fighting for his life. Add more to that. Kids also.

The situation is evolving. And it is changing in not a good way.
Take it serious folks. Don't wait until it effects you or someone you know. Change what you are doing now.
Thank God our government took this more seriously than we did.... I guess they knew more than us.




On a good note. The malaria drug is showing promise. Yesterday a 66 year old at the hospital was in critical condition on a breathing machine. He has received 2 malaria shots, is now off the machine and sitting up and talking. It isn't working for everyone, but it is clearly having positive results on some.

Na, I'm still fine with my first opinion and refusal to panic. America should be ashamed of its self. What ever happened to common sense? Covering your mouth when you caugh or sneeze, staying away from old people when your sick using the disinfecting wipes that have always been at the supermarket? What does America do? They hide under their beds and stick their hands out for money.

There is fundamental reality of the political divide that does not get enough attention.. The main divisions of the 2 "brand name" political tribes form along a line divided by ONE WORD....

And that word is RISK...

Those on the left think that's the dirtiest word... They want NO financial risks. They want NO food or medicine risks.. They believe in listing 4200 items in Cali as "possible carcinogenics". They believe there is such a thing as "clean water" outside a laboratory...

They don't even want to risk being made UNCOMFORTABLE by speech that troubles them..

And it's the same here... For anything "bipartisan" to happen, you have to make it appear that it is "ZERO" resultant risk to their lives...

 

[Leo123]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

1.4% death rate. Almost on par with South Korea.

South Korea has at present a 3% rate. Read it here.

South Korea is also well past its peak. WE ARE NOT.

Thanks however YOUR link says 9,037 cases and 120 deaths. That's 1.3% death rate. Rudimentary math Pogo.

 

[Nostra]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

 

[Siete]

argue til youre purple - I'm staying home, PERIOD.

my housekeeper called this am and promised to wear a mask, gloves, keep a 10 foot distance between us then wipe down everything she came in contact with before she leaves - IF SHE CAN JUST HAVE HER JOB BACK.


empty wallets breed logical decisions -

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

1.4% death rate. Almost on par with South Korea.

South Korea has at present a 3% rate. Read it here.

South Korea is also well past its peak. WE ARE NOT.

Thanks however YOUR link says 9,037 cases and 120 deaths. That's 1.3% death rate. Rudimentary math Pogo.

That's because you're looking at the wrong numbers and mixing them.

Scroll down to the right. You see a box titled "CLOSED CASES". The numbers are right there, already calculated.

When you insert "9037 cases" you're mixing OPEN cases --- which means UNRESOLVED --- with CLOSED, resolved cases. You can't do that.

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

This pandemic has OBVIOUSLY not ended. Therefore, numbers are still changing and will eventually settle --- somewhere. But grabbing handfuls of active cases where no one knows how they will resolve, from mild nuisance cases to critical condition life-support cases, and declaring every last one of them will survive, gives you a random number that has no meaning. I do understand that random shit with no meaning is what you strive for in your posts but I don't bend that way.

 

[james bond]

argue til youre purple - I'm staying home, PERIOD.

my housekeeper called this am and promised to wear a mask, gloves, keep a 10 foot distance between us then wipe down everything she came in contact with before she leaves - IF SHE CAN JUST HAVE HER JOB BACK.


empty wallets breed logical decisions -

At least, pay her while you're in isolation.

 

[Nostra]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

 

[Andylusion]

I put this in Politics because if I put it in health, few will see it. As well as politics of this virus was clouding my mind in the same way it has clouded all of our minds.
As mentioned before, my son is a Respiratory Care Specialist at one of the nations leading Children's hospitals and my daughter is a Respiratory Therapist at a large metropolitan hospital/trauma center. When I say they are on the front lines of this, I mean they are on the front lines.
Up until Friday, I was not that concerned about getting it, or my wife or the two of them. Like most, I was comfortable in the knowledge that it is primarily a concern for the very old/folks with underlying illness.
That is no longer the case.
This weekend, all over the country hospitals are getting much younger patients that require life saving care - and they have no other illness. And the numbers you are seeing reported are not representative of the actual numbers. It is higher.
Like many, I scoffed at all of these restrictions the government was laying out. 4 states with "stay at home" orders. I thought this was over reacting.
Until I got a call from both my kids. Especially my daughter, upset and for the first time afraid and scared. "It is really bad here Dad, we are getting more and more and they are getting younger".
A 32 year old, who 48 hours earlier was at work, feeling a little funny. Last night he was on life support and fighting for his life. Add more to that. Kids also.

The situation is evolving. And it is changing in not a good way.
Take it serious folks. Don't wait until it effects you or someone you know. Change what you are doing now.
Thank God our government took this more seriously than we did.... I guess they knew more than us.




On a good note. The malaria drug is showing promise. Yesterday a 66 year old at the hospital was in critical condition on a breathing machine. He has received 2 malaria shots, is now off the machine and sitting up and talking. It isn't working for everyone, but it is clearly having positive results on some.

Why must it take something personal to happen to THEM for self-proclaimed conservatives and other assorted rightwingers BEFORE they snap out of their stupor and start to have some sense?

Why!?!??

I was not aware that self-proclaimed conservatives were not acting.

In fact, as far as I can tell, right-wingers are moving more than left-wingers are.

While left-wingers in california, are going to the beach to party, because the state is in "lock down", which is an odd version of "snapping out of their stupor".

Meanwhile, I can't even begin to count the ways in which right-wingers are moving. A ministry in Arizona is taking runaway teens off the streets in California, because so many social services are closed, and providing them help. Here in my local area, we have people serving food to seniors who are confined to their homes.

I was just talking to a woman from Hawaii, whose church had people standing at the stores, at 5 AM, to get food and supplies for all the Seniors in their area.

Samaritan's Purse opens coronavirus field hospital in Italy, receives first patients

A U.S.-based evangelical group has opened a coronavirus field hospital in Italy and received its first patients Saturday to help the country's strained health system and medical workers.

www.foxnews.com

Samaritan's Purse opened a field hospital in Northern Italy, fully staffed, free of charge, fully supplied.

Lutheran Ministries, has setup additional wards for sick and those who are harmed by the economic decline, meaning job loss or homelessness. As well as care packages for those in need.

From Life Church in Oklahoma, to Celebration Church in Wisconsin, to SeaCoast Church in S.Coralina, to Woodland Hills Family Church in Missouri, to Cypress Church in Ohio... I see conservative right-wing people springing into action across this entire country. From the largest international Charities, to one Christian woman in Hawaii making a difference by standing in line at 5 AM to get canned soup for her senior neighbors.

And these are only the things that I personally have been involved in myself.

And nearly all these people know of no one that actually has Corona.

If anything, I think the left-wingers are the ones sitting around doing nothing. Going to the beach in California.

Some 30 miles (48 km) to the north of Long Beach, 26-year-old massage therapist Katie Osenbaugh stood on the beach in Venice while her boyfriend surfed and wondered how she would earn a living in her hands-on business under the new rules, which have no expiration date.

On the beach and in the drive-throughs, California residents adjust to life under quarantine

At a coffee shop in the Los Angeles suburb of Long Beach, a few locals gathered in the tiny, half-lit dining room, cleared of tables and chairs, and talked about how they might make ends meet under sweeping new 'stay at home' orders by the governor.

www.reuters.com

Well isn't that "snapping out of their stupor"?

 

[Leo123]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

1.4% death rate. Almost on par with South Korea.

South Korea has at present a 3% rate. Read it here.

South Korea is also well past its peak. WE ARE NOT.

Thanks however YOUR link says 9,037 cases and 120 deaths. That's 1.3% death rate. Rudimentary math Pogo.

That's because you're looking at the wrong numbers and mixing them.

Scroll down to the right. You see a box titled "CLOSED CASES". The numbers are right there, already calculated.

When you insert "9037 cases" you're mixing OPEN cases --- which means UNRESOLVED --- with CLOSED, resolved cases. You can't do that.

Yes I can certainly do that. Out of a TOTAL of 9037 cases IDENTIFIED only 1.3% died. Unresolved doesn't mean that the population sample DIDN'T have the virus. Removing those cases is skewing the stats.

 

[james bond]

America has surged and is now in third place for confirmed infections. With this type of gigantic leap, it means we will surpass Italy and China. It means our death rates will be going up, way up. The story is out the United States is the new epicenter and Trump has no clue.

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

1.4% death rate. Almost on par with South Korea.

South Korea has at present a 3% rate. Read it here.

South Korea is also well past its peak. WE ARE NOT.

Thanks however YOUR link says 9,037 cases and 120 deaths. That's 1.3% death rate. Rudimentary math Pogo.

That's because you're looking at the wrong numbers and mixing them.

Scroll down to the right. You see a box titled "CLOSED CASES". The numbers are right there, already calculated.

When you insert "9037 cases" you're mixing OPEN cases --- which means UNRESOLVED --- with CLOSED, resolved cases. You can't do that.

Yes I can certainly do that. Out of a TOTAL of 9037 cases IDENTIFIED only 1.3% died. Unresolved doesn't mean that the population sample DIDN'T have the virus. Removing those cases is skewing the stats.

"Unresolved cases" means YOU DON'T KNOW what their eventual resolution will be.

And yet despite that you're counting them as "did not die". That's BULLSHIT. I just explained that you don't get to make that assumption.

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

 

[CowboyTed]

Normal politicians would just resign after being this wrong...

 

[Nostra]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

Nobody calculates mortality rate the way you do. Nobody.

You are an idiot.

 

[Nostra]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

This is from YOUR LINK IN 578:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:

• 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
• Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
• Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
• Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
• Comparison with other viruses
• How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3


So, tell us who calculates mortality rates like you do when you get to 62%

 

[Pogo]

Normal politicians would just resign after being this wrong...

Normal politicians --- nay, normal humans --- don't have his level of pigheaded narcissistic self-delusion.

 

[Nostra]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

Your own link says you are full of shit Pogo

 

[Marion Morrison]

No one was ready for this kind of crisis that will end up touching us all to some degree.

Thats only because the incompetent fuckup in the WH claimed it was not a big deal and a hoax.

Nope. Wouldn't have mattered who was in the White House, and wouldn't have mattered what they said. Once the dominoes started to fall around the world, our fate was sealed.
The world in 2020 is so mobile, nothing could have stopped this. It would have helped some if we would have tightened up our borders and restricted certain countries from coming here, but this would have only slightly delayed the inevitable.

You tell that to the people that would have changed their behavior had Drumpf been a leader from the beginning and raised an alarm instead of downplaying the virus. He has blood on his hands and so do clowns like you that support Drumpf.

Because widespread panic is not good.

 

[Marion Morrison]

I say shutting everything down like it is, is a bad idea.

Sure, people get sick and die, but the majority of people wouldn't and are being hurt bad by this.

-Someone not looking to have to donate to homeless former restaurant owners.