I was wrong about Covid 19, and you probably was too.

[Sandy Shanks]

I put this in Politics because if I put it in health, few will see it. As well as politics of this virus was clouding my mind in the same way it has clouded all of our minds.
As mentioned before, my son is a Respiratory Care Specialist at one of the nations leading Children's hospitals and my daughter is a Respiratory Therapist at a large metropolitan hospital/trauma center. When I say they are on the front lines of this, I mean they are on the front lines.
Up until Friday, I was not that concerned about getting it, or my wife or the two of them. Like most, I was comfortable in the knowledge that it is primarily a concern for the very old/folks with underlying illness.
That is no longer the case.
This weekend, all over the country hospitals are getting much younger patients that require life saving care - and they have no other illness. And the numbers you are seeing reported are not representative of the actual numbers. It is higher.
Like many, I scoffed at all of these restrictions the government was laying out. 4 states with "stay at home" orders. I thought this was over reacting.
Until I got a call from both my kids. Especially my daughter, upset and for the first time afraid and scared. "It is really bad here Dad, we are getting more and more and they are getting younger".
A 32 year old, who 48 hours earlier was at work, feeling a little funny. Last night he was on life support and fighting for his life. Add more to that. Kids also.

The situation is evolving. And it is changing in not a good way.
Take it serious folks. Don't wait until it effects you or someone you know. Change what you are doing now.
Thank God our government took this more seriously than we did.... I guess they knew more than us.




On a good note. The malaria drug is showing promise. Yesterday a 66 year old at the hospital was in critical condition on a breathing machine. He has received 2 malaria shots, is now off the machine and sitting up and talking. It isn't working for everyone, but it is clearly having positive results on some.

Yes, you, the media, and the government are giving us all the bad news. Here is the truth of the matter.

When we do get to hear from Trump's medical experts, they talk a great deal about testing and the increasing number of cases. They never talk about the death rate, the only true measure of the severity of a viral pandemic. Those numbers are too low, and discussing the death the death toll would seriously damage the message they are trying to deliver. Nor will they provide the ages of those who died. That, too, would harm the message.

As opposed to only a week ago, hundreds of thousands of tests have now been conducted, accounting for the dramatic rise in the number of cases, not necessarily increases in the number of new cases on a daily basis.

As of now in a population of 327 million there are 60,653 cases of the common cold caused by Covid-19 in the past three months of winter. That number is actually quite low.

819 Americans have died in the past three months from Covid-19 induced common cold. "80% of deaths associated with COVID-19 are among adults aged 65 years and older with the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged 85 years and older. Also, the evidence shows those people were already sick with serious maladies before there ever was Covid-19. Again, in three months of winter, 327 million people, that number is small.

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

This is from YOUR LINK IN 578:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:

• 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
• Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
• Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
• Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
• Comparison with other viruses
• How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3


So, tell us who calculates mortality rates like you do when you get to 62%

Hey Pogo no response to your own link proving you to be full of shit?

How did you calculate a morality rate in the US at 62%? Show your work.

Ah, you want an update do you? Basic math a child could do with a calculator is over your head, is it?

Here ya go, first the numbers, because "62%" has almost certainly changed. I'll hold your hand and show you how it works, you just sit and chew your toenails.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	60,653	+5,797	819	+39	387	59,447	1,307	183	2
Spain	47,610	+5,552	3,434	+443	5,367	38,809	2,636	1,018	73
Germany	35,740	+2,749	186	+27	3,540	32,014	23	427	2
Iran	27,017	+2,206	2,077	+143	9,625	15,315		322	25
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17

1. Total Deaths: 819.
2. Total Recovered: 387.
3. Add those up to get the total number of cases which had an outcome, death or recovery: 1206
4. Divide 819 by 1206: 67.9%. Slightly over two-thirds.

You're right Nostril, it isn't 62% any more.

For comparison --- China's rate of the same number is 4%.
Italy's is 44%.
Spain: 39%.
Germany: 5%.
Iran: 18%.
France: 25%.

See how those numbers are all over the scale? Why do you think that is? Put your toenail down and raise your hand if you think you have an idea.

I'll even give you a hint. Notice that every country but the US has more Recoveries than Deaths. Discuss.

Nuh huh... Step away from that calculator.. You're in danger of not setting up the problem corrected.. The CORRECT setup is to take Deaths divided by TOTAL INFECTIONS...

Since the "TOTAL INFECTIONS" is NOT KNOWN BY ANYONE,, the CDC and others simply approximately DOUBLES the "Number of Cases"...

So the setup is (deaths) / (# of cases) X 2)

Try again chief and don't argue.. I'm fully qualified to lay this out for ya...

AGAIN --- that doesn't work. It gives you a random number with no meaning whatsoever.

TRUE we do not know the total number of infections but even if we did it would still give you a random number. Because (AGAIN) you'd be comparing a known as a proportion of an UNknown, even given accurate infection numbers. Because as long as the status of ANY of those known infections has not resolved, you CANNOT simply declare by personal fiat that they will not die. That can only be established after cases resolve. Obviously they will resolve in one of two ways: the virus will overcome the patient or the patient will overcome the virus. BOTH must be known numbers.

Here's the analogy I keep using and I guess will continue to use as long as it works.

If ten people go to climb the mountain, and then two of them are found dead, while the others are unaccounted for, you DO NOT have a mortality rate of 20% because the 8 missing are status-unknown. If later the other 8 return safely, THEN you have a mortality rate of 20% because now both numbers are known. But suppose only seven of them return, and eventually a third dead climber is found. Now your rate is 30%. If you previously claimed it was 20, your error was counting a dead climber as a survivor -- with no basis to do so.

Same thing here. The active cases which have yet to resolve are the 8 status-unknowns. You can't just assign them a status they have not yet achieved.

That's why these numbers, although calculable, are devoid of real meaning, because not enough TIME has transpired to resolve those sixty thousand active cases. To count them all as "recovered" is going to wildly skew those numbers in the "Recovered" direction, with no basis to do so.

That's why those countries listed above, notably China, has such a lower mortality rate. It's had more TIME to resolve more cases. Even then it's still got well over four thousand unresolved active cases, which when they do resolve will settle that number, presumably toward the Recovered direction (in other words it can be expected to diminish). When that happens and ALL cases are resolved, THEN the mountain climbers will be back and we'll have an accurate number that means something.

Now you made me give away the answer to my dimwitted pupil up there, but there it is, I run rings around you logically.

 

[Sandy Shanks]

It is getting harder and harder to find out information on the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.

This is the question I have been asking Google for over two weeks. "How many people have died in the united states as a result of the coronavirus?"

In the past I got exactly what I wanted. During the past few days that has not been true. This link shows the question I asked moments ago and the results.


how many people have died in the united states as a result of the coronavirus - Google Search

Please note that the first page of results fails to answer my question and most of the responses are two to seven days old.

Is the government hiding information from the public? We know they won't give an age breakdown or health conditions of those who have died. The White House Covid-19 team avoids mentioning the death toll because it is so low.

 

[flacaltenn]

Pogo I know this might kill you.. But step away from USMB and WATCH the daily briefings from CDC (Fauci and Birx with Trump and staff) .. They are doing a FINE job of laying out the numbers...

Yesterday and the day before, Birx and Fauci STRESSED the "death rate" in the US is closer to 0.75% and told everyone where that number comes from...

And THAT is far LESS than the original hysterical estimates from the "modeling" that caused people to crap their undies...

 

[flacaltenn]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

This is from YOUR LINK IN 578:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:

• 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
• Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
• Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
• Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
• Comparison with other viruses
• How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3


So, tell us who calculates mortality rates like you do when you get to 62%

Hey Pogo no response to your own link proving you to be full of shit?

How did you calculate a morality rate in the US at 62%? Show your work.

Ah, you want an update do you? Basic math a child could do with a calculator is over your head, is it?

Here ya go, first the numbers, because "62%" has almost certainly changed. I'll hold your hand and show you how it works, you just sit and chew your toenails.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	60,653	+5,797	819	+39	387	59,447	1,307	183	2
Spain	47,610	+5,552	3,434	+443	5,367	38,809	2,636	1,018	73
Germany	35,740	+2,749	186	+27	3,540	32,014	23	427	2
Iran	27,017	+2,206	2,077	+143	9,625	15,315		322	25
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17

1. Total Deaths: 819.
2. Total Recovered: 387.
3. Add those up to get the total number of cases which had an outcome, death or recovery: 1206
4. Divide 819 by 1206: 67.9%. Slightly over two-thirds.

You're right Nostril, it isn't 62% any more.

For comparison --- China's rate of the same number is 4%.
Italy's is 44%.
Spain: 39%.
Germany: 5%.
Iran: 18%.
France: 25%.

See how those numbers are all over the scale? Why do you think that is? Put your toenail down and raise your hand if you think you have an idea.

I'll even give you a hint. Notice that every country but the US has more Recoveries than Deaths. Discuss.

Nuh huh... Step away from that calculator.. You're in danger of not setting up the problem corrected.. The CORRECT setup is to take Deaths divided by TOTAL INFECTIONS...

Since the "TOTAL INFECTIONS" is NOT KNOWN BY ANYONE,, the CDC and others simply approximately DOUBLES the "Number of Cases"...

So the setup is (deaths) / (# of cases) X 2)

Try again chief and don't argue.. I'm fully qualified to lay this out for ya...

AGAIN --- that doesn't work. It gives you a random number with no meaning whatsoever.

TRUE we do not know the total number of infections but even if we did it would still give you a random number. Because (AGAIN) you'd be comparing a known as a proportion of an UNknown, even given accurate infection numbers. Because as long as the status of ANY of those known infections has not resolved, you CANNOT simply declare by personal fiat that they will not die. That can only be established after cases resolve. Obviously they will resolve in one of two ways: the virus will overcome the patient or the patient will overcome the virus. BOTH must be known numbers.

Here's the analogy I keep using and I guess will continue to use as long as it works.

If ten people go to climb the mountain, and then two of them are found dead, while the others are unaccounted for, you DO NOT have a mortality rate of 20% because the 8 missing are status-unknown If the other 8 return safely, THEN you have a mortality rate of 20% because now both numbers are known.

Same thing here. The active cases which have yet to resolve are the 8 status-unknowns. You can't just assign them a status they have not yet achieved.

Read my suggestion in the post above and QUIT passing this bad information on USMB...

 

[flacaltenn]

It is getting harder and harder to find out information on the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S.

This is the question I have been asking Google for over two weeks. "How many people have died in the united states as a result of the coronavirus?"

In the past I got exactly what I wanted. During the past few days that has not been true. This link shows the question I asked moments ago and the results.


how many people have died in the united states as a result of the coronavirus - Google Search

Please note that the first page of results fails to answer my question and most of the responses are two to seven days old.

Is the government hiding information from the public? We know they won't give an age breakdown or health conditions of those who have died. The White House Covid-19 team avoids mentioning the death toll because it is so low.

there is a great summary of data that Cowboy Ted did in Politics.. Suggest you start there and ASK CowboyTed for his sources to look deeper...

Lets see where COVID is going

Lads, Can we have a thread that doesn't mention one side or the other... Please keep the finger point out of it... This is how big is the hole and how bad will it get. First lets look at US Numbers right now. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States Lets...

www.usmessageboard.com

 

[flacaltenn]

Sandy Shanks I also suggest you do what I just suggested to Pogo... It might HURT to watch the daily briefings out of the WH -- but folks that DO -- have all the numbers and most of their questions answered...

USMB is the WRONG place to get info on something this dramatic...

 

[Pogo]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

This is from YOUR LINK IN 578:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:

• 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
• Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
• Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
• Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
• Comparison with other viruses
• How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3


So, tell us who calculates mortality rates like you do when you get to 62%

Hey Pogo no response to your own link proving you to be full of shit?

How did you calculate a morality rate in the US at 62%? Show your work.

Ah, you want an update do you? Basic math a child could do with a calculator is over your head, is it?

Here ya go, first the numbers, because "62%" has almost certainly changed. I'll hold your hand and show you how it works, you just sit and chew your toenails.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	60,653	+5,797	819	+39	387	59,447	1,307	183	2
Spain	47,610	+5,552	3,434	+443	5,367	38,809	2,636	1,018	73
Germany	35,740	+2,749	186	+27	3,540	32,014	23	427	2
Iran	27,017	+2,206	2,077	+143	9,625	15,315		322	25
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17

1. Total Deaths: 819.
2. Total Recovered: 387.
3. Add those up to get the total number of cases which had an outcome, death or recovery: 1206
4. Divide 819 by 1206: 67.9%. Slightly over two-thirds.

You're right Nostril, it isn't 62% any more.

For comparison --- China's rate of the same number is 4%.
Italy's is 44%.
Spain: 39%.
Germany: 5%.
Iran: 18%.
France: 25%.

See how those numbers are all over the scale? Why do you think that is? Put your toenail down and raise your hand if you think you have an idea.

I'll even give you a hint. Notice that every country but the US has more Recoveries than Deaths. Discuss.

Nuh huh... Step away from that calculator.. You're in danger of not setting up the problem corrected.. The CORRECT setup is to take Deaths divided by TOTAL INFECTIONS...

Since the "TOTAL INFECTIONS" is NOT KNOWN BY ANYONE,, the CDC and others simply approximately DOUBLES the "Number of Cases"...

So the setup is (deaths) / (# of cases) X 2)

Try again chief and don't argue.. I'm fully qualified to lay this out for ya...

AGAIN --- that doesn't work. It gives you a random number with no meaning whatsoever.

TRUE we do not know the total number of infections but even if we did it would still give you a random number. Because (AGAIN) you'd be comparing a known as a proportion of an UNknown, even given accurate infection numbers. Because as long as the status of ANY of those known infections has not resolved, you CANNOT simply declare by personal fiat that they will not die. That can only be established after cases resolve. Obviously they will resolve in one of two ways: the virus will overcome the patient or the patient will overcome the virus. BOTH must be known numbers.

Here's the analogy I keep using and I guess will continue to use as long as it works.

If ten people go to climb the mountain, and then two of them are found dead, while the others are unaccounted for, you DO NOT have a mortality rate of 20% because the 8 missing are status-unknown If the other 8 return safely, THEN you have a mortality rate of 20% because now both numbers are known.

Same thing here. The active cases which have yet to resolve are the 8 status-unknowns. You can't just assign them a status they have not yet achieved.

Read my suggestion in the post above and QUIT passing this bad information on USMB...

You want me to abandon logic? No can do. I'm not interested in soiled undies or emotion. There is no emotion in the logic. The logic is irrefutable. If I'm wrong and it IS refutable --- have at it.

 

[g5000]

Pogo I know this might kill you.. But step away from USMB and WATCH the daily briefings from CDC (Fauci and Birx with Trump and staff) .. They are doing a FINE job of laying out the numbers...

Total deaths/Total cases = 1.35% mortality rate in the US.

This is from the CDC site TODAY:

 

[flacaltenn]

Three days ago:

Yesterday:

Today:

Actually (i.e. later today) it's already up to 49,594 with 622 perished. We're actually about to top fifty thousand, the third country to do so after China and Italy, and leading the world in new infections detected.

Looks like President Trump's ramped up testing is working. Nice job, President Trump.

1.2% mortality rate in the US. Nice job, President Trump.

Thanks for the numbers.

All these members calculated wrong.. You cannot GET a mortality rate if you DO NOT know the infection rate.. From listening to Fauci and whatshername, the ONLY estimates on mortality assume that ACTUAL infections are about twice the "Diagnosed cases" numbers... So don't divide "diagnosed" by "mortality"... It's a guess and the REAL NUMBER is 0.75%... Fauci confirmed that GUESS yesterday...

That's FAR BETTER than the 2 or 4% that MANY were projecting and apparently, some politicos are pandering with fear to the public...

NOBODY knows the "infection" numbers because MANY FOLKS present entirely Asymptomatic, don't seek/need med help, or are misdiagnosed as some other respiratory disease because the cases are mild enough... They are simply (for now) taking the diagnosed cases and multiplying by about 2....

Obviously they have no way of knowing exact numbers. I was using the ones Pogo pulled out of his ass.

I will be interested in seeing how he calculated a US mortality rate of over 62% from his numbers.

Actually the numbers are right off the stats on Worldometer where we've all been tracking them. "Exact" is exactly what they are, although, and I seem to be the only one of us noting this, they're also fluid.

You have 983 total resolved cases. Of those 622 died and 361 have recovered (so far --- which is exactly why I stipulated "so far"... that number can and will rise).

Whelp, then you take the number 622 (dead -- you see, "mortality" means "dead), and divide it into the number 983 (the total). And you get 62.3%. See how simple?

Here, let me educate you since you are clearly ignorant as to how mortality rate is calculated...'


Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

Case fatality rate | epidemiology

Case fatality rate, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time. Case fatality rate typically is used as a measure of disease severity and is often used for prognosis (predicting disease

www.britannica.com

IF the disease is REPORTED or accurately differentiated from SIMILAR symptoms/tests. We're not there yet because of the # of unreported, misdiagnosed, etc....

Who cares. I was demonstrating the fact Pogo is ignorant on how mortality rate is calculated. Idiot thinks it is over 62% in the US.

That's changed. It's now 64.4%. More deaths reported.

It's also ---AGAIN---- meaningless unti those numbers have enough time to settle.

I showed you how the medical community, and all other thinking people, calculate the mortality rate.

Only a blithering idiot would think you calculate it the way you are calculating it, which explains your problem.

No, Intestinal Tract, you linked to a Worldometer page which disproves your bullshit.

Let's go there even now, and see what it says. Ready?

>>
How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]

A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.

2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV): estimating the case fatality rate – a word of caution - Battegay Manue et al., Swiss Med Wkly, February 7, 2020


The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]
<<

Weird how every country and WHO have the mortality rate at 1-4%, depending on location.....................and you have it at over 62% for the US.

Link us up to anyone who tries to calculate it the way you are trying to, moron.

Link is already upstairs in 578. I even had to explain how to read it. Even though the calculation is RIGHT THERE ON THE PAGE.

This is from YOUR LINK IN 578:

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Mortality Rate
Last updated: March 5, 3:00 GMT
See also: Death Rate by Age and Sex of COVID-19 patients
On this page:

• 3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the WHO as of March 3
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 20 (3.8% nationwide, 5.8% in Wuhan, 0.7% other areas)
• Mortality Rate in China as of Feb. 4 (2.1% nationwide, 4.9% Wuhan, 3.1% Hubei, and 0.16% other provinces) reported by the NHC of China
• Study providing a tentative mortality rate of 3%
• Death rate among patients admitted to hospital (HFR): 15%
• Days from first symptom to death: 14 days
• Comparison with other viruses
• How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

3.4% Mortality Rate estimate by the World Health Organization (WHO) as of March 3


So, tell us who calculates mortality rates like you do when you get to 62%

Hey Pogo no response to your own link proving you to be full of shit?

How did you calculate a morality rate in the US at 62%? Show your work.

Ah, you want an update do you? Basic math a child could do with a calculator is over your head, is it?

Here ya go, first the numbers, because "62%" has almost certainly changed. I'll hold your hand and show you how it works, you just sit and chew your toenails.

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Active Cases	Serious, Critical	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Tot Deaths/ 1M pop
China	81,218	+47	3,281	+4	73,650	4,287	1,399	56	2
Italy	74,386	+5,210	7,503	+683	9,362	57,521	3,489	1,230	124
USA	60,653	+5,797	819	+39	387	59,447	1,307	183	2
Spain	47,610	+5,552	3,434	+443	5,367	38,809	2,636	1,018	73
Germany	35,740	+2,749	186	+27	3,540	32,014	23	427	2
Iran	27,017	+2,206	2,077	+143	9,625	15,315		322	25
France	22,304		1,100		3,281	17,923	2,516	342	17

1. Total Deaths: 819.
2. Total Recovered: 387.
3. Add those up to get the total number of cases which had an outcome, death or recovery: 1206
4. Divide 819 by 1206: 67.9%. Slightly over two-thirds.

You're right Nostril, it isn't 62% any more.

For comparison --- China's rate of the same number is 4%.
Italy's is 44%.
Spain: 39%.
Germany: 5%.
Iran: 18%.
France: 25%.

See how those numbers are all over the scale? Why do you think that is? Put your toenail down and raise your hand if you think you have an idea.

I'll even give you a hint. Notice that every country but the US has more Recoveries than Deaths. Discuss.

Nuh huh... Step away from that calculator.. You're in danger of not setting up the problem corrected.. The CORRECT setup is to take Deaths divided by TOTAL INFECTIONS...

Since the "TOTAL INFECTIONS" is NOT KNOWN BY ANYONE,, the CDC and others simply approximately DOUBLES the "Number of Cases"...

So the setup is (deaths) / (# of cases) X 2)

Try again chief and don't argue.. I'm fully qualified to lay this out for ya...

AGAIN --- that doesn't work. It gives you a random number with no meaning whatsoever.

TRUE we do not know the total number of infections but even if we did it would still give you a random number. Because (AGAIN) you'd be comparing a known as a proportion of an UNknown, even given accurate infection numbers. Because as long as the status of ANY of those known infections has not resolved, you CANNOT simply declare by personal fiat that they will not die. That can only be established after cases resolve. Obviously they will resolve in one of two ways: the virus will overcome the patient or the patient will overcome the virus. BOTH must be known numbers.

Here's the analogy I keep using and I guess will continue to use as long as it works.

If ten people go to climb the mountain, and then two of them are found dead, while the others are unaccounted for, you DO NOT have a mortality rate of 20% because the 8 missing are status-unknown If the other 8 return safely, THEN you have a mortality rate of 20% because now both numbers are known.

Same thing here. The active cases which have yet to resolve are the 8 status-unknowns. You can't just assign them a status they have not yet achieved.

Read my suggestion in the post above and QUIT passing this bad information on USMB...

You want me to abandon logic? No can do. I'm not interested in soiled undies or emotion. There is no emotion in the logic. The logic is irrefutable. If I'm wrong and it IS refutable --- have at it.

Dont have time to Pogo around with you. You're irresponsibly passing BAD info and arguing about it.. Rather shut this thread and BAN you until you go watch a couple WH daily briefings with the CDC big wigs... Not joking here..

 

[Rigby5]

This thread is totally wrong.
The COVID-19 has a fairly low mortality rate, and it is mostly elderly or compromised who are dying. The fact some of those include young people who vape, is irrelevant because that is deliberate actions young people are choosing to do.

The reality is that trying to get COVID-19 early, if you are young and healthy, is the best strategy.
That is because it will become more lethal over time, everyone will get it, and the only way to survive is by building up resistance by getting it.