trump got more votes in 2020 then he did in 2016Even worse is that like with anything else....if you're not gaga about someone or something, you find an alternative or, even worse from their view, simply pull the ripcord and leave all together.
Trump, in 2020, got a smaller percentage of the votes in many red states than he got in 2016. It wasn't a huge percentage but, you'd figure, that with the alleged charisma, the onset of early voting, and the alleged good job he did, the percentages would not only be greater across the board in red states but off-the-charts. It wasn't the case. In Alabama, the overall participation (I don't like using the term "turnout" since there are so many voting absentee) was down 5% from 2016 to 2020. The percent that voted for Trump was down by .05%. This is Alabama. So the Republicans stayed home. The Democrats are going to stay home in 2024 as they did in 2022. Put another way, the customers are indifferent.
I don't think you'll see too many deciding they will vote for R instead of D or vice versa; you'll simply see the customers--the party members--not showing up for church.