Over half of the nation lives in the East and 80% live in or near cities.
States west of the Mississippi won't matter because the winner will be announced at around 5 PM Pacific time
With the current system, if the 20 year pattern of states voting in presidential elections continues, if Republicans lose Florida (29) in 2016, they would lose.
Now, the only states west of the Mississippi where analysts couldn't predict the party winner more than 14 months out, are Iowa (6 electoral votes), Nevada (6), and Colorado (9).
The "East" does not vote as a monolithic block of voters all for one party. Neither do voters in cities.
16% of the U.S. population lives outside the nation's Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Rural America has voted 60% Republican. None of the 10 most rural states matter now.
The population of the top five cities (New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Philadelphia) is only 6% of the population of the United States and the population of the top 50 cities (going as far down as Arlington, TX) is only 15% of the population of the United States. 16% of the U.S. population lives in the top 100 cities. They voted 63% Democratic in 2004.
Suburbs divide almost exactly equally between Republicans and Democrats.
Big cities do not always control the outcome of elections. The governors and U.S. Senators are not all Democratic in every state with a significant city.
Because of state winner-take-all laws for awarding electoral votes, analysts concluded months ago that only the 2016 party winner of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire (with 86 electoral votes among them) is not a foregone conclusion.
10 states were considered competitive in the 2012 election. More than 99% of presidential campaign attention (ad spending and visits) was invested in them. Two-thirds (176 of 253) of the general-election campaign events, and a similar fraction of campaign expenditures, were in just four states (Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa)
From 1992- 2012
13 states (with 102 electoral votes) voted Republican every time
19 states (with 242) voted Democratic every time
If this 20 year pattern continues, and the National Popular Vote bill does not go into effect,
Democrats only would need a mere 28 electoral votes from other states.
If Republicans lose Florida (29), they would lose..
If the National Popular Vote bill is not in effect, less than a handful of states will continue to dominate and determine the presidential general election.
With the National Popular Vote bill, all states will matter, because all voters in all states will count and matter to each candidate.
Instead of being "wasted"
Oklahoma's margin of 455,000 votes for Bush in 2004 would count. That was larger than the margin generated by the 9th and 10th largest states, namely New Jersey and North Carolina (each with 15 electoral votes).
Utah's margin of 385,000 votes for Bush in 2004 would count.
8 small western states, with less than a third of California’s population, votes would count. They gave Bush a bigger margin (1,283,076) than California provided Kerry (1,235,659).
California's, Oregon's, Washington's, etc. etc. etc. votes for the Republican candidate would count.