How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?

[Sunsettommy]

Watts Up With That?

How Busy Was the 2020 Hurricane Season?

December 11, 2020

by Neil L. Frank

Excerpt:

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, with 30 named storms, is going down in the record books as having the most named storms of any season on record. But are we comparing apples and apples—or apples and oranges?

Some people blame the recent increase in named storms—tropical storms and hurricanes—on global warming, and infer that we must stop spewing CO2 into the atmosphere to curb the warming and so prevent the increase in storms and the damage they cause.

But the raw data for hurricane history is contaminated by changes in observing tools, in our understanding, and in the philosophy of whether a storm should be named. What explains the increase in named storms? Was it an abnormal meteorological event, or are there other explanations? To answer this requires some discussion of the origin of Atlantic storms.

How Do Atlantic Storms Begin?

LINK

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It appears that 1933 is a peak year for true tropical and hurricane storms.

 

[konradv]

Tropical storms are categorized by their sustained wind speeds. I don't think that's changed anytime recently. Back in 1933 there wasn't as much study of the systems, so it's not that things have changed, but that reporting has gotten better.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Tropical storms are categorized by their sustained wind speeds. I don't think that's changed anytime recently. Back in 1933 there wasn't as much study of the systems, so it's not that things have changed, but that reporting has gotten better.

Yes there has been better coverage since the Satellites went up, but you missed something from the article entirely that point out something what rarely seen before 1960.

Here is what I see as the critical difference

"A second type occurs in the upper part of the atmosphere (25,000 ft. and higher). Occasionally, one of these “upper lows” strengthens and spins downward to the surface and may generate a named storm.

Some baroclinic disturbances can convert into tropical storms, and the process by which they do so is complicated. Consider the following scenario. In late May a cold front moves off the mid-Atlantic coast and stalls. A disturbance develops along the front and strengthens. Winds reach 45 mph. The initial energy is all baroclinic. However, thunderstorms generated by the disturbance warm the atmosphere, and now the system is being driven by both baroclinic and tropical energy.

Should the system be named a “tropical storm”? Not unless the tropical energy completely dominates the baroclinic energy. Occasionally this does occur, and the system morphs into a tropical storm.

Once they decide to name the storm, forecasters face another problem. As the storm moves toward the north Atlantic, thunderstorms decrease because of colder water, and cold air is drawn

into the circulation. The winds have not decreased, but baroclinic energy again dominates, and the system is unnamed as it transforms into a post-tropical remnant storm."

red and black bolding mine

=======

Some storms reach tropical or hurricane speeds, but are NOT tropical in origin, because it was formed in a different way.

 

[ReinyDays]

Some storms reach tropical or hurricane speeds, but are NOT tropical in origin, because it was formed in a different way.

Tropical cyclones are a very specific type of cyclone ... low pressure at the surface, high pressure aloft ... it doesn't matter how this condition comes about ... any cyclone that comes to this state, and has sustained winds over 34 kts is named IF spotted in real time ...

An extratropical cyclone (also called cold core cyclones) is another type of cyclone ... low pressure at the surface, low pressure aloft (very much like the vortex over a bath tub drain) ... as these are quite numerous and ubiquitous, naming these storms is foolish ...

In very general terms ... tropical cyclones spin off the ICZ near the equator, cold core cyclones spin off the polar front (about 60º latitude) ... but exceptions abound ... the important point is the type of cyclone has to do with it's structure, not it's origin ... as tropical cyclones recurve up through latitude, it will sometimes lose it's high pressure aloft and take on a cold core structure, less often will a cold core cyclone curve down in latitude and slide under a high pressure becoming a named tropical cyclone ...

A subtropical cyclone is kinda sorta an intermediate stage ... although there's some technical details where this analogy breaks down ... but for tracking and naming purposes, they are treated as tropical cyclones ... these can be difficult to spot in real time, and sometimes they get missed until the off-season post-mortums ... these are noted in the archives as unnamed tropical cyclones ...

Numbers of tropical cyclones per year before satellites is grossly under reported ... and considered scientifically unreliable ... the best we can say is 30 named storms in a year for the North Atlantic Basin is a once in 50 years event ... about as often as New Orleans fills with water ... and that's just the North Atlantic ... 2020 is a rather average year for tropical cyclones world-wide, and this world-wide total is surprisingly steady, between 110 and 140 per year ... the heat transport is about the same overall, nothing special about more storms in the Atlantic ...

As the say in the trade ... "within the first deviation" ...

ETA: Naming storms is STRICTLY for the public's benefit ... it has no scientific meaning ...

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

There are more people in the woods to hear the trees fall so it appears as though more trees are falling.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Some storms reach tropical or hurricane speeds, but are NOT tropical in origin, because it was formed in a different way.

Tropical cyclones are a very specific type of cyclone ... low pressure at the surface, high pressure aloft ... it doesn't matter how this condition comes about ... any cyclone that comes to this state, and has sustained winds over 34 kts is named IF spotted in real time ...

An extratropical cyclone (also called cold core cyclones) is another type of cyclone ... low pressure at the surface, low pressure aloft (very much like the vortex over a bath tub drain) ... as these are quite numerous and ubiquitous, naming these storms is foolish ...

In very general terms ... tropical cyclones spin off the ICZ near the equator, cold core cyclones spin off the polar front (about 60º latitude) ... but exceptions abound ... the important point is the type of cyclone has to do with it's structure, not it's origin ... as tropical cyclones recurve up through latitude, it will sometimes lose it's high pressure aloft and take on a cold core structure, less often will a cold core cyclone curve down in latitude and slide under a high pressure becoming a named tropical cyclone ...

A subtropical cyclone is kinda sorta an intermediate stage ... although there's some technical details where this analogy breaks down ... but for tracking and naming purposes, they are treated as tropical cyclones ... these can be difficult to spot in real time, and sometimes they get missed until the off-season post-mortums ... these are noted in the archives as unnamed tropical cyclones ...

Numbers of tropical cyclones per year before satellites is grossly under reported ... and considered scientifically unreliable ... the best we can say is 30 named storms in a year for the North Atlantic Basin is a once in 50 years event ... about as often as New Orleans fills with water ... and that's just the North Atlantic ... 2020 is a rather average year for tropical cyclones world-wide, and this world-wide total is surprisingly steady, between 110 and 140 per year ... the heat transport is about the same overall, nothing special about more storms in the Atlantic ...

As the say in the trade ... "within the first deviation" ...

ETA: Naming storms is STRICTLY for the public's benefit ... it has no scientific meaning ...

Your post is a mess and misses the point of the article by 35 mph.

Naming storms are chosen by the National Hurricane team, they make up a list for the upcoming season.

 

[ding]

It's called weather.

 

[ReinyDays]

Your post is a mess and misses the point of the article by 35 mph.
Naming storms are chosen by the National Hurricane team, they make up a list for the upcoming season.

Just correcting some rather significant mistakes in your post ... your welcome ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

Your post is a mess and misses the point of the article by 35 mph.
Naming storms are chosen by the National Hurricane team, they make up a list for the upcoming season.

Just correcting some rather significant mistakes in your post ... your welcome ...

Your post is a mess and misses the point of the article by 35 mph.
Naming storms are chosen by the National Hurricane team, they make up a list for the upcoming season.

Just correcting some rather significant mistakes in your post ... your welcome ...

This is what he replied to:

Some storms reach tropical or hurricane speeds, but are NOT tropical in origin, because it was formed in a different way.

No you never showed the "mistakes" since you never bothered to read the article:


"A second type occurs in the upper part of the atmosphere (25,000 ft. and higher). Occasionally, one of these “upper lows” strengthens and spins downward to the surface and may generate a named storm.

Some baroclinic disturbances can convert into tropical storms, and the process by which they do so is complicated. Consider the following scenario. In late May a cold front moves off the mid-Atlantic coast and stalls. A disturbance develops along the front and strengthens. Winds reach 45 mph. The initial energy is all baroclinic. However, thunderstorms generated by the disturbance warm the atmosphere, and now the system is being driven by both baroclinic and tropical energy.

Should the system be named a “tropical storm”? Not unless the tropical energy completely dominates the baroclinic energy. Occasionally this does occur, and the system morphs into a tropical storm.

Once they decide to name the storm, forecasters face another problem. As the storm moves toward the north Atlantic, thunderstorms decrease because of colder water, and cold air is drawn

into the circulation. The winds have not decreased, but baroclinic energy again dominates, and the system is unnamed as it transforms into a post-tropical remnant storm."

bolding mine

========

To expand on this by talking about four storms that started as a baroclinic storm was eventually named

Forecasters were faced with this decision four times in 2020, and each time they chose to name the system: Dolly, Edward, Kyle, and Omar. All four started out as baroclinic disturbances along dissipating cold fronts and then morphed into tropical storms under the influence of heat from thunderstorms. But following a very short tropical life of less than 24 to 36 hours, re-examination revealed that baroclinic energy once again dominated, and they were reclassified as post-tropical remnant lows (winter-type storms).

NONE of those 4 named storms had a tropical origin, it was CONVERTED into a very short lived tropical cyclone, then quickly reverted back to a baroclinic storm..

========

Just showed that it reaches tropical depression speed, can still keep tropical storm or hurricane speed, when it reverts back to baroclinic status.

I was correct all along, since some storms never started as a tropical system, it started as a baroclinic system, which occasionally convert into a very short lived tropical cyclone, then reverts back to a baroclinic storm again, with retained high wind speed values for a time.

 

[ReinyDays]

I was correct all along, since some storms never started as a tropical system, it started as a baroclinic system, which occasionally convert into a very short lived tropical cyclone, then reverts back to a baroclinic storm again, with retained high wind speed values for a time.

Subtropical cyclone ... there's a difference ...

 

[mamooth]

It was a really busy Atlantic hurricane season. That doesn't mean a lot in terms of climate, just like having a slow year doesn't mean a lot, especially since AGW theory doesn't predict more storms. AGW theory does predict more powerful storms, and that does seem to be the trend.

Hurricanes really are getting stronger, just like climate models predicted

The authors of a new paper studied 4,000 tropical cyclones spanning 39 years.

www.livescience.com

 

[Sunsettommy]

I was correct all along, since some storms never started as a tropical system, it started as a baroclinic system, which occasionally convert into a very short lived tropical cyclone, then reverts back to a baroclinic storm again, with retained high wind speed values for a time.

Subtropical cyclone ... there's a difference ...

No it starts as BAROCLINIC storm becomes a tropical storm that rarely last more than 24 hours, then becomes BAROCLONIC storm again, because a of some cooler air flows in called a post-tropical remnant storm. It was NEVER a true Tropical storm since it began as a NON Tropical system, ends as a NON tropical system.

I post the quotes from Frank, you post confused opinions.....

The difference is YOUR confusion, Frank doesn't say why YOU say at all.

Trying to be a perfessor again?

 

[Sunsettommy]

It was a really busy Atlantic hurricane season. That doesn't mean a lot in terms of climate, just like having a slow year doesn't mean a lot, especially since AGW theory doesn't predict more storms. AGW theory does predict more powerful storms, and that does seem to be the trend.

Hurricanes really are getting stronger, just like climate models predicted

The authors of a new paper studied 4,000 tropical cyclones spanning 39 years.

www.livescience.com

Some of the storms were not tropical at all, some were temporarily tropical, decades ago some of them were not seen as they form and die well out into the Atlantic, thus not observed. With Satellite data and the loosening of the definitions of what constitute a true tropical cyclone, there are more of them seen and counted as a tropical cyclone, a misleading way to count.

You ignore the fact that the rest of the world was well below average, thus your article is misleading.....

" A new paper, published online May 18 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, aims to change that — studying a period of 39 years, between 1979 and 2017. "

a 39 year period....

 

[ReinyDays]

No it starts as BAROCLINIC storm becomes a tropical storm that rarely last more than 24 hours, then becomes BAROCLONIC storm again, because a of some cooler air flows in called a post-tropical remnant storm. It was NEVER a true Tropical storm since it began as a NON Tropical system, ends as a NON tropical system.

I post the quotes from Frank, you post confused opinions.....

The difference is YOUR confusion, Frank doesn't say why YOU say at all.

Trying to be a perfessor again?

You should look up the word before you toss it around:

In fluid dynamics, the baroclinity (often called baroclinicity) of a stratified fluid is a measure of how misaligned the gradient of pressure is from the gradient of density in a fluid.[1][2] In meteorology a baroclinic atmosphere is one for which the density depends on both the temperature and the pressure; contrast this with a barotropic atmosphere, for which the density depends only on the pressure. In atmospheric terms, the barotropic zones of the Earth are generally found in the central latitudes, or tropics, whereas the baroclinic areas are generally found in the mid-latitude/polar regions." -- Wikipedia -- n.d.

Also:

Most subtropical cyclones form when a deep cold-core extratropical cyclone drops down into the subtropics. The system becomes blocked by a high latitude ridge, and eventually sheds its frontal boundaries as its source of cool and dry air from the high latitudes diverts away from the system. Temperature differences between the 500 hPa pressure level and the sea surface temperatures initially exceed the dry adiabatic lapse rate, which causes an initial round of thunderstorms to form at a distance east of the center. Due to the initial cold temperatures aloft, sea surface temperatures usually need to reach at least 20 °C (68 °F) for this initial round of thunderstorms. The initial thunderstorm activity moistens up the environment around the low, which destabilizes the atmosphere by reducing the lapse rate needed for convection. When the next shortwave or upper level jet streak (wind maximum within the jet stream) moves nearby, convection reignites closer to the center and the system develops into a true subtropical cyclone. The average sea surface temperature that helps lead to subtropical cyclogenesis is 24 °C (75 °F).[1][14] If the thunderstorm activity becomes deep and persistent, allowing its initial low level warm core to deepen, tropical cyclogenesis is possible.[11] The locus of formation for North Atlantic subtropical cyclones is out in the open ocean; the island of Bermuda is regularly impacted by these systems." -- Wikipedia -- n.d.

Baroclinity is a measure of the STATE of the atmosphere ... and this can cause a cold core cyclone to be generated ... the warm and cold fronts associated with the cold core cyclone are good examples of baroclinity ... if the environment changes for baroclinity to barotropic, the cyclone is said to transition to a sub-tropical cyclone, although sub-tropical cyclones can form in these barotropic areas directly ... if the cyclone then slides underneath an upper-level high pressure system, the cyclone becomes fully tropical ...

An approaching mid- to upper-level cyclone began to capture Humberto [2013], causing the storm to decelerate between late on September 16 and early on September 17. When Humberto's low-level circulation became vertically stacked under the non-tropical cyclone, the system transitioned into a subtropical storm on September 17. Humberto then weakened to a subtropical depression early the next day, about 1,120 mi (1,800 km) south of Ponta Delgada. The subtropical depression continued north-northwestward until degenerating into an open trough, and was soon absorbed by a cold front." -- NHC Tropical Storm Report, Hurricane Humberto -- Jan 8th, 2014

Humberto never reached extratropical status ...

 

[whitehall]

Before WW2 there was no way to track hurricanes or determine their size and speed except to wait until they hit. Today we have eyes in the sky, satellite technology and hurricane hunter planes. Doesn't it stand to reason that as the weather tracking improves so does the number of storms throughout the world?

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

Before WW2 there was no way to track hurricanes or determine their size and speed except to wait until they hit. Today we have eyes in the sky, satellite technology and hurricane hunter planes. Doesn't it stand to reason that as the weather tracking improves so does the number of storms throughout the world?

That’s right. We’re able to see the falling trees that make the sound from an inaudible distance.

 

[ReinyDays]

That’s right. We’re able to see the falling trees that make the sound from an inaudible distance.

Just for grins and giggles, I checked out my property on Google Earth ... caught my wife doing doughnuts in the pick-up ... she was not happy about the spanking she got ... "you can't use Google Earth that way" ... too funny ...

 

[RoshawnMarkwees]

That’s right. We’re able to see the falling trees that make the sound from an inaudible distance.

Just for grins and giggles, I checked out my property on Google Earth ... caught my wife doing doughnuts in the pick-up ... she was not happy about the spanking she got ... "you can't use Google Earth that way" ... too funny ...

I didn’t think women did that.

 

[ReinyDays]

I didn’t think women did that.

Well, they don't ... fight like a banshee when you take them across your knee ...