Here is the reason trusted and quality polls have more democrats than republicans

[Billiejeens]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

There was a considerable number of undecided voters going into last week of the campaign. This was right when Comey told Congress they were reopening the Clinton email investigation, which eager Republicans were sure to let everyone else know. It wasn’t relevant that the investigation was quickly closed, the damage has been done. Public opinion swung against Clinton and the shift was too late to be fully reflected in polls.

False

I know you rarely allow intelligence analysis penetrate your bubble but if you’re feeling like reading something that might challenge your world view (I know, what are the odds of that happening?) read this article.

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election

So why won't the media admit as much?

fivethirtyeight.com

I'm aware that Nate Silver believes that he couldn't have just gotten it wrong.
Poor Nate.

What do you mean? Nate Silver was the one saying Trump had a good chance going into Election Day.

Did your bubble not tell you that? That’s how your bubble works. When you don’t want to believe something, come up with an excuse, any excuse to disregard it.

Poor Coleytroll

I feel bad for you. You’ve been so broken mentally you can’t even think for yourself anymore.

Thank you.

 

[DGS49]

There can be no doubt that the population is trending toward the Democrat party. And the reasons are obvious.

We have one political party that says, America is the nation of OPPORTUNITY, where you can make your life whatever you want it to be; all it takes is hard work, innovation, willingness to take risks, and maybe a little bit of luck. You are all on your own.

And we have another Party that says, We will take care of you. We will give you free food, shelter, medicine, free college, and take care of you in your old age. If you fail, it's not your fault, it's the culture and what happened to your ancestors a hundred and fifty years ago. And you won't have to pay for anything. We'll get Rich People to pay for it. And by the way, EVERYBODY GETS A TROPHY!

Which party do you think people are going to favor?

 

[Billy000]

There can be no doubt that the population is trending toward the Democrat party. And the reasons are obvious.

We have one political party that says, America is the nation of OPPORTUNITY, where you can make your life whatever you want it to be; all it takes is hard work, innovation, willingness to take risks, and maybe a little bit of luck. You are all on your own.

And we have another Party that says, We will take care of you. We will give you free food, shelter, medicine, free college, and take care of you in your old age. If you fail, it's not your fault, it's the culture and what happened to your ancestors a hundred and fifty years ago. And you won't have to pay for anything. We'll get Rich People to pay for it. And by the way, EVERYBODY GETS A TROPHY!

Which party do you think people are going to favor?

Why do you just pretend that the democrat party is just giving away all of those programs to ANYBODY. Very few people even qualify for the programs you listed.

 

[westwall]

I went years without ever being called for a political poll.

Then, when they finally did start calling, as soon as they could tell I was a conservative, the call / poll would abruptly end.

Now, if I get a call, I fuck with them by acting like the biggest flaming snowflake leftard that I can.

I have been a Democrat all my life. I have always been polled for my opinion. But last year, when I saw how the Dem Party was going communist, I was very vocal in my dislike for that change.

This year I was polled one time and I reiterated my disgust for how harris was supporting the rioting.

I have not been polled since.

 

[Nostra]

November 3rd.

The only poll that matters.

November 3rd

Actually, it's Oct 4 when you posted that.

 

[Nostra]

Any poll not showing Donald Trump has been an absolute moron for 3 1/2 years and is about to be voted out is useless. He is on his way to the most lopsided loss in history. He better hope Biden dies from a Trump family Covid infection.

So, you predict Crazy Joe will win all 50 states?

Care to make a bet?

He’s gonna win all 57. I talked to Obama and it’s a slam dunk.

So you are ready to make a bet.

If Crazy Joe wins all 50 states, I go away forever.

If he doesn't, you go away forever.

Bet?

citygator is gone
p

Let’s make it more fair. Biden wins. You go away. Trump wins I will go. . Hope you don’t have a lot of friends here... Aw who am I kidding. You won’t take that bet and you don’t have friends.

So you are crawfishing off your earlier claim. Typical Dimwinger..........all talk.

 

[Nostra]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

There was a considerable number of undecided voters going into last week of the campaign. This was right when Comey told Congress they were reopening the Clinton email investigation, which eager Republicans were sure to let everyone else know. It wasn’t relevant that the investigation was quickly closed, the damage has been done. Public opinion swung against Clinton and the shift was too late to be fully reflected in polls.

False

I know you rarely allow intelligence analysis penetrate your bubble but if you’re feeling like reading something that might challenge your world view (I know, what are the odds of that happening?) read this article.

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election

So why won't the media admit as much?

fivethirtyeight.com

I'm aware that Nate Silver believes that he couldn't have just gotten it wrong.
Poor Nate.

What do you mean? Nate Silver was the one saying Trump had a good chance going into Election Day.

Did your bubble not tell you that? That’s how your bubble works. When you don’t want to believe something, come up with an excuse, any excuse to disregard it.

I recall ol Nate giving Trump about a 5% chance of winning.

 

[Stryker___777]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

The turnout was totally unexpected. Supposedly, "white male uneducated rural voters" turned out like they never have in any other election which stunned the "experts" who do academic polling and always base their "scientific methodology" on precedent, specifically, the demographic mix that put Obama in power for two terms.
They are still weighting the polling samples to reflect the Obama demographic. They don't bother weighting it to match the turnout of 2016, because I don't know, maybe that would be racist? Maybe they want polling to be representative of "people of color" or else it's racist polls... regardless of accuracy based on turnout. Maybe it's a symbol of the Wokeness that has infected academia and how it gets in the way of true, accurate, up-to-date actual scientific polling.
As far as claiming "there's simply more Democrats"... when they poll registered voters, they see which party the voter is registered as. So they could easily make it 50/50 R/D, but they don't, they use the ambigious "oh there are just more Democrats" as an excuse to over-represent the Left aided by their TDS confirmation bias... plus look at the companies doing the polls: NYT, CBS, WAPO... all have lost their integrity and professionalism due to TDS.
Overall I think its the Nate Silver overanalytic number crunching and obsession with techie data and willfull ignorance of the abstractions on the ground i.e. the passionate display of support for Trump everywhere which the Nate Silver types choose to conveniently ignore..

 

[Osiris-ODS]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

Well the national polls were not wrong. That’s what you’re not getting. The media made the mistake in believing that Hillary’s lead in the polls meant she would win because only FOUR prior presidential elections in US history had the winning candidate losing the popular vote. Trump’s win was a fluke. The only actual polling mistakes were in state polls like PA, WI, and MI. That’s it. Those were the only inaccurate polls.

Those were not the only state polls that were wrong. Just look at Post #4 for another example for God's sake. You people have ridiculous excuses for everything, and when one excuse is shown to be false you just move on to the next asinine point.

 

[Osiris-ODS]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

The turnout was totally unexpected. Supposedly, "white male uneducated rural voters" turned out like they never have in any other election which stunned the "experts" who do academic polling and always base their "scientific methodology" on precedent, specifically, the demographic mix that put Obama in power for two terms.
They are still weighting the polling samples to reflect the Obama demographic. They don't bother weighting it to match the turnout of 2016, because I don't know, maybe that would be racist? Maybe they want polling to be representative of "people of color" or else it's racist polls... regardless of accuracy based on turnout. Maybe it's a symbol of the Wokeness that has infected academia and how it gets in the way of true, accurate, up-to-date actual scientific polling.
As far as claiming "there's simply more Democrats"... when they poll registered voters, they see which party the voter is registered as. So they could easily make it 50/50 R/D, but they don't, they use the ambigious "oh there are just more Democrats" as an excuse to over-represent the Left aided by their TDS confirmation bias... plus look at the companies doing the polls: NYT, CBS, WAPO... all have lost their integrity and professionalism due to TDS.
Overall I think its the Nate Silver overanalytic number crunching and obsession with techie data and willfull ignorance of the abstractions on the ground i.e. the passionate display of support for Trump everywhere which the Nate Silver types choose to conveniently ignore..

The numbers are not 50/50 R/D nationwide. It's more like 40% Independent, and 30/30 R/D. That's another big problem with the way these polls are skewed, as they severely under sample "Independent" voters. As someone else noted, the breakdown of voters who consider themselves "Independents" tends to skew greater towards R than D. In fact, in some states there is "Conservative" party registration that is separate from and in addition to the Republican party (i.e., NJ, NY, IL), and some people who are "Independents" in states that do not have that separate designation would register as Conservatives if available.

The other thing they've been doing recently according to polling Insiders is oversampling suburban women for the "Republican" numbers (who tend to be the demographic within the R party that is less supportive of Trump), and undersampling Republicans in demographics that are more likely to be Trump supporters. That demographic data within the "R" category doesn't show up in their sampling breakdowns, even though it unequivocally skews the polling results in opposition to Trump.

 

[citygator]

Any poll not showing Donald Trump has been an absolute moron for 3 1/2 years and is about to be voted out is useless. He is on his way to the most lopsided loss in history. He better hope Biden dies from a Trump family Covid infection.

So, you predict Crazy Joe will win all 50 states?

Care to make a bet?

He’s gonna win all 57. I talked to Obama and it’s a slam dunk.

So you are ready to make a bet.

If Crazy Joe wins all 50 states, I go away forever.

If he doesn't, you go away forever.

Bet?

citygator is gone
p

Let’s make it more fair. Biden wins. You go away. Trump wins I will go. . Hope you don’t have a lot of friends here... Aw who am I kidding. You won’t take that bet and you don’t have friends.

So you are crawfishing off your earlier claim. Typical Dimwinger..........all talk.

So you proved my first statement... you won’t take that bet. Now I’m calling on you to produce a single friend or I win both points.

 

[kyzr]

OK, then how do you explain 2016?

The turnout was totally unexpected. Supposedly, "white male uneducated rural voters" turned out like they never have in any other election which stunned the "experts" who do academic polling and always base their "scientific methodology" on precedent, specifically, the demographic mix that put Obama in power for two terms.
They are still weighting the polling samples to reflect the Obama demographic. They don't bother weighting it to match the turnout of 2016, because I don't know, maybe that would be racist? Maybe they want polling to be representative of "people of color" or else it's racist polls... regardless of accuracy based on turnout. Maybe it's a symbol of the Wokeness that has infected academia and how it gets in the way of true, accurate, up-to-date actual scientific polling.
As far as claiming "there's simply more Democrats"... when they poll registered voters, they see which party the voter is registered as. So they could easily make it 50/50 R/D, but they don't, they use the ambiguous "oh there are just more Democrats" as an excuse to over-represent the Left aided by their TDS confirmation bias... plus look at the companies doing the polls: NYT, CBS, WAPO... all have lost their integrity and professionalism due to TDS.
Overall I think its the Nate Silver over-analytic number crunching and obsession with techie data and willful ignorance of the abstractions on the ground i.e. the passionate display of support for Trump everywhere which the Nate Silver types choose to conveniently ignore..

Agree that 2020 polling is more bullshit than science. Pollsters call about 1,500 people at random.
1. How does that take the Kanye voters into consideration?
2. How does that take the Hispanics for Trump into consideration?
3. How does that take Trumps increased support from blacks into consideration?
4. How does that take Trump's "stealth voters", union families who work in the energy industries, into consideration?
5. In 2016 Trump got about 13 points more than polls predicted.
6. In 2016 Investors Business Daily was one of the few polls who correctly predicted a Trump win

Biden Job Approval, Direction Of Country: IBD/TIPP Poll

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index tracks President Biden's job approval rating and the overall leadership index.

www.investors.com

 

[Nostra]

Any poll not showing Donald Trump has been an absolute moron for 3 1/2 years and is about to be voted out is useless. He is on his way to the most lopsided loss in history. He better hope Biden dies from a Trump family Covid infection.

So, you predict Crazy Joe will win all 50 states?

Care to make a bet?

He’s gonna win all 57. I talked to Obama and it’s a slam dunk.

So you are ready to make a bet.

If Crazy Joe wins all 50 states, I go away forever.

If he doesn't, you go away forever.

Bet?

citygator is gone
p

Let’s make it more fair. Biden wins. You go away. Trump wins I will go. . Hope you don’t have a lot of friends here... Aw who am I kidding. You won’t take that bet and you don’t have friends.

So you are crawfishing off your earlier claim. Typical Dimwinger..........all talk.

So you proved my first statement... you won’t take that bet. Now I’m calling on you to produce a single friend or I win both points.

I'll take the bet based on your claim, but you are too much of a wimp to stand behind your own claim.

Sad, really.

 

[citygator]

Any poll not showing Donald Trump has been an absolute moron for 3 1/2 years and is about to be voted out is useless. He is on his way to the most lopsided loss in history. He better hope Biden dies from a Trump family Covid infection.

So, you predict Crazy Joe will win all 50 states?

Care to make a bet?

He’s gonna win all 57. I talked to Obama and it’s a slam dunk.

So you are ready to make a bet.

If Crazy Joe wins all 50 states, I go away forever.

If he doesn't, you go away forever.

Bet?

citygator is gone
p

Let’s make it more fair. Biden wins. You go away. Trump wins I will go. . Hope you don’t have a lot of friends here... Aw who am I kidding. You won’t take that bet and you don’t have friends.

So you are crawfishing off your earlier claim. Typical Dimwinger..........all talk.

So you proved my first statement... you won’t take that bet. Now I’m calling on you to produce a single friend or I win both points.

I'll take the bet based on your claim, but you are too much of a wimp to stand behind your own claim.

Sad, really.

Guarantee you that more people vote against Donald Trump than have ever voted against any US Presidential candidate in History. Slight possibility I’m wrong and it’s the second most lopsided loss since John McCain had 69m vote against him. Will be 1 or 2 most lopsided vote ever. Book it and you know it’s true.