Well, yes, it is. The earth is warming. The reason is GHGs produced by humans. The consequences are being felt right now in every grocery store.
As for obese junkies, who cares?
Apparently.............the World Bank cares enough to write a white paper on the subject. Yuk........yuk.........now heres a group only a bonfide mental case would call partisan skeptics.
The title???
Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change
Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change
Author: Hallegatte, Stephane ; Shah, Ankur; Lempert, Robert; Brown, Casey; Gill, Stuart; Collection Title: Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 6193
Country: World; Date Stored: 2012/09/06
Document Date: 2012/09/01 Document Type: Policy Research Working Paper
Language: English Region: The World Region
Report Number: WPS6193 SubTopics: Climate Change Economics; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Global Environment Facility; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions; Science of Climate Change
Volume No: 1 of 1
Summary: While agreeing on the choice of an optimal investment decision is already difficult for any diverse group of actors, priorities, and world views, the presence of deep uncertainties further challenges the decision-making framework by questioning the robustness of all purportedly optimal solutions. This paper summarizes the additional uncertainty that is created by climate change, and reviews the tools that are available to project climate change (including downscaling techniques) and to assess and quantify the corresponding uncertainty. Assuming that climate change and other deep uncertainties cannot be eliminated over the short term (and probably even over the longer term), it then summarizes existing decision-making methodologies that are able to deal with climate-related uncertainty, namely cost-benefit analysis under uncertainty, cost-benefit analysis with real options, robust decision making, and climate informed decision analysis. It also provides examples of applications of these methodologies, highlighting their pros and cons and their domain of applicability. The paper concludes that it is impossible to define the "best" solution or to prescribe any particular methodology in general. Instead, a menu of methodologies is required, together with some indications on which strategies are most appropriate in which contexts. This analysis is based on a set of interviews with decision-makers, in particular World Bank project leaders, and on a literature review on decision-making under uncertainty. It aims at helping decision-makers identify which method is more appropriate in a given context, as a function of the project's lifetime, cost, and vulnerability.
Investment decision making under deep uncertainty -- application to climate change, Vol. 1 of 1
Those who dont understand the ramifications of a paper like this are beyond hopelessly naive. Suffice to say, its about the best barometer on how the power brokers of the world envision financial plans surrounding climate change.
Speaks to
"climate related uncertainty" based upon vast descrepancies between models, depending on location.
For example, the paper notes...............
Apparently, the IPCC provides results from 19 global climate models. Even though the models agree on the very big picture (more warming in high latitude than in low latitude; more precipitation in high latitudes; less precipitation around the tropics; more precipitation around the equator), the differences can be huge in some regions (e.g., half the models predict an increase in precipitation over India; half the models predict the opposite; and — as a consequence — the “average model” predicts no change, showing the risk of using an average model).
Here’s another example: “For Ghana, [one model] predicts a 20% increase in precipitation, while [another model] predicts a 30% decrease!”
I laughed my balls off when I saw this.............more strong evidence that the "consensus science" is losing. Now though, I'm just more aware of the level of spin attached to these "climate models". These assholes pick the ones that fit the narrative every time.
But the people out there in charge of $$$ and climate investment................dont.


