fivethirtyeight just updated the Trump-Clinton election odds.

[Harry Dresden]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

and pennsylvania. i think uncle joe is going to be hitting the folk in scranton pretty hard.

looking forward to seeing dumb donald either blow off or crash and burn during the debates.

personally, i suspect he's going to implode way before november. he's already unhinged.

Jill lets remember something here.....Trump said he knows more than the Generals.....how can you doubt the guy?....

 

[konradv]

One hour ago Nate Silver just re-calculated the odds. Keep in mind that one month ago, Hillary had an 80% to 20% lead according to his election model. Take a look now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Still 60-40 Clinton. No one really expected it to be 80-20.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#plus

 

[jillian]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

and pennsylvania. i think uncle joe is going to be hitting the folk in scranton pretty hard.

looking forward to seeing dumb donald either blow off or crash and burn during the debates.

personally, i suspect he's going to implode way before november. he's already unhinged.

Jill lets remember something here.....Trump said he knows more than the Generals.....how can you doubt the guy?....

lol.. you're so awesome....

and the donald is HUUUUUUUGE.

did't any of these people listen to the generals who don't want this guy anywhere near the white house?

oh right... they were busy reading the donald's insane tweets.

 

[jillian]

One hour ago Nate Silver just re-calculated the odds. Keep in mind that one month ago, Hillary had an 80% to 20% lead according to his election model. Take a look now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Still 60-40 Clinton. No one really expected it to be 80-20.

i don't think it was ever 80-20. that doesn't even make sense.

 

[Dekster]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

 

[konradv]

One hour ago Nate Silver just re-calculated the odds. Keep in mind that one month ago, Hillary had an 80% to 20% lead according to his election model. Take a look now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Still 60-40 Clinton. No one really expected it to be 80-20.

i don't think it was ever 80-20. that doesn't even make sense.

That's chances of winning, not % of voters. You're right though. Hillary's peak was at about 74% chance, not 80.

 

[Harry Dresden]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

and pennsylvania. i think uncle joe is going to be hitting the folk in scranton pretty hard.

looking forward to seeing dumb donald either blow off or crash and burn during the debates.

personally, i suspect he's going to implode way before november. he's already unhinged.

Jill lets remember something here.....Trump said he knows more than the Generals.....how can you doubt the guy?....

lol.. you're so awesome....

and the donald is HUUUUUUUGE.

did't any of these people listen to the generals who don't want this guy anywhere near the white house?

oh right... they were busy reading the donald's insane tweets.

i have seen 3 of them so far...

 

[Katzndogz]

If any generals want to outlast obama's presiduncy they will condemn Trump on command. They don't want to end up like Stanley McChrystal.

 

[candycorn]

One hour ago Nate Silver just re-calculated the odds. Keep in mind that one month ago, Hillary had an 80% to 20% lead according to his election model. Take a look now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

How’s it looking today?

Not too good….

It will oscillate to and fro as long as polling zig zags.

Again, though, 538 is simply a reflection of the polling data that Mr. Silver weights, scores, and presents. One needn’t look further than Ohio.

Ohio’s margin will not be 4-5 % most likely.

 

[SassyIrishLass]

It's freaking August and the election is still three months away....give it a rest already

 

[dannyboys]

Never, Ever Trump. Trump ought to be sent to prison for the rest of his life. He forcibly raped then thirteen year old Katie Johnson after tying her to a bed. Down with Trump.

That's enough of your bullshit!
Permanent Ignore asshole!

 

[dannyboys]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

 

[Dekster]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

The same is true for Trump and every person who supports one candidate will go around saying that a vote for Johnson is a vote for the other candidate. Always happens every election. I may write in Rutherford B. Hayes or something. Who knows.

 

[dannyboys]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

The same is true for Trump and every person who supports one candidate will go around saying that a vote for Johnson is a vote for the other candidate. Always happens every election. I may write in Rutherford B. Hayes or something. Who knows.

I don't think so.
The Gary supporters aren't going anywhere. Same with the Trump supporters.
But there are a lot of Independents who are either going to vote for Gary or Hillary or not going to vote. Never Trump obviously.
It's the independents who are at play.
Every time something negative surfaces about Hillary it's the independents that Hillary loses.
100% guaranteed Assange has a MAJOR ethical MOAB ready to drop on Hillary before the election.
Gary could get a 15 point bounce then. Trump could get 5 points then.

 

[Mac1958]

From 270towin.com:

 

[Dekster]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

The same is true for Trump and every person who supports one candidate will go around saying that a vote for Johnson is a vote for the other candidate. Always happens every election. I may write in Rutherford B. Hayes or something. Who knows.

I don't think so.
The Gary supporters aren't going anywhere. Same with the Trump supporters.
But there are a lot of Independents who are either going to vote for Gary or Hillary or not going to vote. Never Trump obviously.
It's the independents who are at play.
Every time something negative surfaces about Hillary it's the independents that Hillary loses.
100% guaranteed Assange has a MAJOR ethical MOAB ready to drop on Hillary before the election.
Gary could get a 15 point bounce then. Trump could get 5 points then.

"Independents" are often conservatives.

 

[dannyboys]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

The same is true for Trump and every person who supports one candidate will go around saying that a vote for Johnson is a vote for the other candidate. Always happens every election. I may write in Rutherford B. Hayes or something. Who knows.

I don't think so.
The Gary supporters aren't going anywhere. Same with the Trump supporters.
But there are a lot of Independents who are either going to vote for Gary or Hillary or not going to vote. Never Trump obviously.
It's the independents who are at play.
Every time something negative surfaces about Hillary it's the independents that Hillary loses.
100% guaranteed Assange has a MAJOR ethical MOAB ready to drop on Hillary before the election.
Gary could get a 15 point bounce then. Trump could get 5 points then.

"Independents" are often conservatives.

"Independants" are often Liberals.
So?
"Independants" who are 'leaning' Left are either going to end up voting for Gary or Hillary or writing in Daffy Duck or staying home.
I maintain that the vast majority of Gary's supporters are Left leaning.
That's why the current polls which don't factor in Gary's supporters have Hillary over Trump but when Gary's supporters are factored in it's Hillary who loses points not Trump.

 

[Dekster]

I don't like either one of them and won't vote for either one of them, but, I have been telling people, especially republicans, since January that Trump would be their nominee and when he floundered on the Judge stuff I told democrats he would be back even and here we are. I have no idea who will win this election. It will be very close. It will come down to whether or not Trump sticks his foot in his mouth at the 11th hour; there is a terrorist attack at the 11th hour; or yet another Clinton scandal drops from wiki at the 10th hour. Hillary will underperform Obama among blacks and Trump will overperform Romney/McCain among independents. Polls suggest Johnson is pulling evenly from both. Whoever wins will be the one who can pull the larger chunk of their bloc back into the fold absent one of those 11th hour events.

Every vote for Gary is a vote Hillary doesn't get.
It's going to come down to how many voters Gary can take away from Hillary.
Think of it like this:
Say Trump has 50% solid voters. They aren't going anywhere.
But Hillary can't afford to lose voters to Gary.
Every time another bunch of leaked Hillary emails comes to the surface a percent that would have voted for Hillary moves to Gary, not to Trump.
Trump just needs to hang on to what he has to win.
Hillary must stop the bleeding of voters to Gary.
Gary is Hillary's Nader.

The same is true for Trump and every person who supports one candidate will go around saying that a vote for Johnson is a vote for the other candidate. Always happens every election. I may write in Rutherford B. Hayes or something. Who knows.

I don't think so.
The Gary supporters aren't going anywhere. Same with the Trump supporters.
But there are a lot of Independents who are either going to vote for Gary or Hillary or not going to vote. Never Trump obviously.
It's the independents who are at play.
Every time something negative surfaces about Hillary it's the independents that Hillary loses.
100% guaranteed Assange has a MAJOR ethical MOAB ready to drop on Hillary before the election.
Gary could get a 15 point bounce then. Trump could get 5 points then.

"Independents" are often conservatives.

"Independants" are often Liberals.
So?
"Independants" who are 'leaning' Left are either going to end up voting for Gary or Hillary or writing in Daffy Duck or staying home.
I maintain that the vast majority of Gary's supporters are Left leaning.
That's why the current polls which don't factor in Gary's supporters have Hillary over Trump but when Gary's supporters are factored in it's Hillary who loses points not Trump.

That is not why it is happening really, but your statement about the polls is half true. Donald Trump loses support in the same polls. The more choices you give people in polls, the more likely people will pick an outlying answer.

 

[Skylar]

Hillary is currently running 68% v 31 for Trump per Nate Silver.

Trump can't keep the crazy in.