fivethirtyeight just updated the Trump-Clinton election odds.

[MarathonMike]

One hour ago Nate Silver just re-calculated the odds. Keep in mind that one month ago, Hillary had an 80% to 20% lead according to his election model. Take a look now.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo

 

[Dekster]

Virginia is not really in play. There will be last minute liberal carpet bombing of the black areas around Richmond by No. VA and Tidewater liberals to get out the vote, as always. Obama/Biden will make a lot of quick trips into the state at the 11th hour.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

 

[jillian]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

and pennsylvania. i think uncle joe is going to be hitting the folk in scranton pretty hard.

looking forward to seeing dumb donald either blow off or crash and burn during the debates.

personally, i suspect he's going to implode way before november. he's already unhinged.

 

[Dekster]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

 

[LoneLaugher]

This is very exciting.

Are we to assume that the OP trusts the projections that Mr. Silver puts forth?

 

[blackhawk]

Interesting what I love is how everyone now considers Nate Silver an election god when his models favor their candidate when they don't well you know not quite so much. The thing everyone seems to think outside of the super hyper-partisans is this is going to be a very close election.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

Ohio is determined by the counties in suburban Cincinnati (or at least has for the past 3 elections). When they get walloped with “Wages are too high” 60,000 times between labor day and election day…they’ll be in Clinton’s camp.

Observe the :30 second mark.



Bush beat Kerry here by pandering to the Amish and cultural conservatives in the region. That will not work for Drumpf.

Pence is being sent to Arizona. Definitely not a good sign for Donald if they are sending #2 and not a surrogate out here.

 

[Dekster]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

Ohio is determined by the counties in suburban Cincinnati (or at least has for the past 3 elections). When they get walloped with “Wages are too high” 60,000 times between labor day and election day…they’ll be in Clinton’s camp.

Observe the :30 second mark.



Bush beat Kerry here by pandering to the Amish and cultural conservatives in the region. That will not work for Drumpf.

Pence is being sent to Arizona. Definitely not a good sign for Donald if they are sending #2 and not a surrogate out here.

Hillary "Vote for me or I will send your job to China as part of the new trade pact I supported up until I got the nomination and don't support now, but will support again in January" Clinton may not win that battle.

 

[candycorn]

Interesting what I love is how everyone now considers Nate Silver an election god when his models favor their candidate when they don't well you know not quite so much. The thing everyone seems to think outside of the super hyper-partisans is this is going to be a very close election.

Nate will be right (as per usual). What he says plainly on his site is that the % will be updated as polling becomes available. The reason for the huge swing is that you get what I will refer to as “momentum” for one candidate or another. Bad weeks or Good weeks creates the momentum.

Anyway, drill down 1 degree in Ohio. Four polls in a row showed Mr. Trump doing better than he has from the first part of July. The latest poll shows HRC doing better:

I know it’s a lot to take in for a Conservative but the masthead on the same page illustrates it much better:

Nobody thinks either candidate will get 57% in Ohio.

 

[Correll]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

and pennsylvania. i think uncle joe is going to be hitting the folk in scranton pretty hard.

looking forward to seeing dumb donald either blow off or crash and burn during the debates.

personally, i suspect he's going to implode way before november. he's already unhinged.

Trump's message is selling like crazy in the Rust Belt.

The rest of your post is wishful thinking.

 

[MarathonMike]

If there is a more accurate statistician for recent Congressional and Presidential elections than Nate Silver please provide a link.

 

[Correll]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

Ohio is determined by the counties in suburban Cincinnati (or at least has for the past 3 elections). When they get walloped with “Wages are too high” 60,000 times between labor day and election day…they’ll be in Clinton’s camp.

Observe the :30 second mark.



Bush beat Kerry here by pandering to the Amish and cultural conservatives in the region. That will not work for Drumpf.

Pence is being sent to Arizona. Definitely not a good sign for Donald if they are sending #2 and not a surrogate out here.

THe AMISH?

You do not know what you are talking about.

 

[candycorn]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

Ohio is determined by the counties in suburban Cincinnati (or at least has for the past 3 elections). When they get walloped with “Wages are too high” 60,000 times between labor day and election day…they’ll be in Clinton’s camp.

Observe the :30 second mark.



Bush beat Kerry here by pandering to the Amish and cultural conservatives in the region. That will not work for Drumpf.

Pence is being sent to Arizona. Definitely not a good sign for Donald if they are sending #2 and not a surrogate out here.

Hillary "Vote for me or I will send your job to China as part of the new trade pact I supported up until I got the nomination and don't support now, but will support again in January" Clinton may not win that battle.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, people who think they understand trade pacts are not the voters HRC should target. Don’t get me wrong, she would love their support but free trade, fair trade, indifferent trade, or Trader Joes always has winners and losers. Those who spin yarns about re-negotiating so it’s always a win for one side or the other are just ignorant on how it works.

 

[candycorn]

If there is a more accurate statistician for recent Congressional and Presidential elections than Nate Silver please provide a link.

History shows there is not.

 

[mdk]

I hate living in a swing state sometimes.

 

[theHawk]

Interesting what I love is how everyone now considers Nate Silver an election god when his models favor their candidate when they don't well you know not quite so much. The thing everyone seems to think outside of the super hyper-partisans is this is going to be a very close election.

Nate will be right (as per usual). What he says plainly on his site is that the % will be updated as polling becomes available. The reason for the huge swing is that you get what I will refer to as “momentum” for one candidate or another. Bad weeks or Good weeks creates the momentum. That Drumpf had a good week during his convention isn’t a surprise to you… is it?

Anyway, drill down 1 degree in Ohio. Four polls in a row showed Mr. Trump doing better than he has from the first part of July. The latest poll shows HRC doing better:

View attachment 83718

I know it’s a lot to take in for a Conservative but the masthead on the same page illustrates it much better:

View attachment 83719

Nobody thinks either candidate will get 57% in Ohio.

Apparently you don't know how to read. No one ever said either candidate would get 57% of the vote in Ohio. That's the odds for winning it.

Hillary has a 95% chance of winning NY, doesn't mean she is getting 95% of the vote there.

 

[ElGringoViejo]

Interesting what I love is how everyone now considers Nate Silver an election god when his models favor their candidate when they don't well you know not quite so much. The thing everyone seems to think outside of the super hyper-partisans is this is going to be a very close election.

Nate will be right (as per usual). What he says plainly on his site is that the % will be updated as polling becomes available. The reason for the huge swing is that you get what I will refer to as “momentum” for one candidate or another. Bad weeks or Good weeks creates the momentum. That Drumpf had a good week during his convention isn’t a surprise to you… is it?

Anyway, drill down 1 degree in Ohio. Four polls in a row showed Mr. Trump doing better than he has from the first part of July. The latest poll shows HRC doing better:

View attachment 83718

I know it’s a lot to take in for a Conservative but the masthead on the same page illustrates it much better:

View attachment 83719

Nobody thinks either candidate will get 57% in Ohio.

Apparently you don't know how to read. No one ever said either candidate would get 57% of the vote in Ohio. That's the odds for winning it.

Hillary has a 95% chance of winning NY, doesn't mean she is getting 95% of the vote there.

 

[ElGringoViejo]

Never, Ever Trump. Trump ought to be sent to prison for the rest of his life. He forcibly raped then thirteen year old Katie Johnson after tying her to a bed. Down with Trump.

 

[Dekster]

Yeah, folks…drill down one degree into Ohio and see what you think after that.

I think Trump will win Ohio actually. PA will come down to black turn out. I think Hillary has a problem with blacks when it comes to turn out. She and Kaine pander so much to Hispanics and there is a vein of the the black community already unhappy with Obama favoring Hispanics and giving them nothing during his Presidency. "Mi nombre es Hillary Clinton Obama." may not be her best approach right now.

Ohio is determined by the counties in suburban Cincinnati (or at least has for the past 3 elections). When they get walloped with “Wages are too high” 60,000 times between labor day and election day…they’ll be in Clinton’s camp.

Observe the :30 second mark.



Bush beat Kerry here by pandering to the Amish and cultural conservatives in the region. That will not work for Drumpf.

Pence is being sent to Arizona. Definitely not a good sign for Donald if they are sending #2 and not a surrogate out here.

Hillary "Vote for me or I will send your job to China as part of the new trade pact I supported up until I got the nomination and don't support now, but will support again in January" Clinton may not win that battle.

At the risk of sounding arrogant, people who think they understand trade pacts are not the voters HRC should target. Don’t get me wrong, she would love their support but free trade, fair trade, indifferent trade, or Trader Joes always has winners and losers. Those who spin yarns about re-negotiating so it’s always a win for one side or the other are just ignorant on how it works.

Anytime people start talking about trade negotiations, it does not matter if the person understands it or not. All the one who will vote based on it will be hearing, "You're job is going to China....well unless your union gives up even more wages and benefits in the next contract."