Electoral Map

[jillian]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

reagan coalition?

an electoral map YOU made up????



forgive me if i stick with the real projections of actual smart people.

 

[tinydancer]

I've said before, Ohio is a barometer for the nation. If he loses Ohio, he won't take enough states to win.

I didn't think it was possible either but here's a really interesting article to show how it could be done without Ohio.

Latest Presidential Polls: Real Clear Politics Ohio Polls Show Possible Path to Romney Win Without Ohio

Less than two weeks until Election Day, all eyes are on Ohio. While no Republican president has ever won the election without winning Ohio, it’s not impossible for 2012 nominee Mitt Romney to win without it.

According to the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of polls, Obama currently holds a slim 2 point lead in Ohio at 48%-46%. According to Rasmussen, it’s a dead heat at 48%-48%. No doubt that an Ohio win would make an Electoral College victory for Romney so much simpler.

But what if he doesn’t win Ohio? Is it over? Not at all.

And the article continues at this link. Really interesting case scenarios.

Latest Presidential Polls: Real Clear Politics Ohio Polls Show Possible Path to Romney Win Without Ohio

 

[Zander]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

I think this is a very close representation of what we'll see on Nov 6th.....

 

[AceRothstein]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

I think this is a very close representation of what we'll see on Nov 6th.....

Then you'll wake up to see that it was only a dream and Obama has won reelection.

 

[Zander]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

I think this is a very close representation of what we'll see on Nov 6th.....

Then you'll wake up to see that it was only a dream and Obama has won reelection.

Keep self soothing....

 

[Sarg]

It's not Romney who needs Ohio, it's Obama.

Romney has 191 safe electoral votes. Add in North Carolina's 15 (only a "battleground" in name at this point) to 206.

The other state where Romney has a clear polling lead is Florida's +29 ... That's 235.

Romney has narrow polling leads in Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). These are still reversible, but even the Obama campaign is leaving these names off the "firewall" talk these days. That's 257.

This leaves Romney 12 short of a tie (which he's likely to win in House delegations) and 13 short of an outright win. Ohio by itself is 18 electoral votes. Obama simply must have it. His only other option is to reverse Virginia or Colorado - that's hard to do without momentum, especially since there's no practical hope of undecideds breaking for the incumbent.

Romney, on the other hand, has several bank shots to win without Ohio. Wisconsin plus any other state does the trick. So does Iowa + Nevada. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan are 1-shot wins for Romney ... they may be long shots, but it is true that neither state has been blanketed with ads in either direction yet. Some movement might be possible.

Even if you think Romney has only 10% chance in PA and MI, and 25% in Ohio, that's still a 40% chance of winning the election outright without talking about the Wisconsin or Iowa combos. .

 

[AceRothstein]

It's not Romney who needs Ohio, it's Obama.

Romney has 191 safe electoral votes. Add in North Carolina's 15 (only a "battleground" in name at this point) to 206.

The other state where Romney has a clear polling lead is Florida's +29 ... That's 235.

Romney has narrow polling leads in Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). These are still reversible, but even the Obama campaign is leaving these names off the "firewall" talk these days. That's 257.

This leaves Romney 12 short of a tie (which he's likely to win in House delegations) and 13 short of an outright win. Ohio by itself is 18 electoral votes. Obama simply must have it. His only other option is to reverse Virginia or Colorado - that's hard to do without momentum, especially since there's no practical hope of undecideds breaking for the incumbent.

Romney on the other hand has several bank shots to win without Ohio. Wisconsin plus any other state does the trick. So does Iowa + Nevada. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan are 1-shot wins for Romney ... they may be long shots, but it is true that neither state has been blanketed with ads in either direction yet. Some movement might be possible.

Even if you think Romney has only 10% chance in PA and MI, and 25% in Ohio, that's still a 40% chance of winning the election outright without talking about the Wisconsin or Iowa combos. .

The states you are saying Romney could win to win without Ohio (WI, PA, MI, IA & NV) have better margins for Obama than the states you are giving Romney have for him (FL, VA & CO). Obama has more paths to 270 than does Romney.

 

[Sarg]

The states you are saying Romney could win to win without Ohio (WI, PA, MI, IA & NV) have better margins for Obama than the states you are giving Romney have for him (FL, VA & CO). Obama has more paths to 270 than does Romney.

Only if you rely on averages. The problem with averages is they reward outliers until there is enough new data to knock the bad data out. Take Iowa for example. The RCP average has Obama up two. However, 3 of the 5 polls in the average have Romney tied or ahead - including the only two from this week. The week-and-a-half old Obama +8 outlier is distorting the view.

The reality is that two polls are out this week and neither shows an Obama lead.

Taking the Virginia example you gave, the key there is consistency. No poll (out of 5 majors) in the last two weeks has showed Romney behind, or even tied. The lead might be small, but it is consistent.

Florida is a similar story. 8 major polls in the last week. 7 have a Romney lead, and the 8th is Obama +1.

Colorado is certainly more reversible in my mind than Virginia, which is more reversible than Florida.

My post described PA and MI as long shots, and put theoretical 10% numbers on them. I'm hardly suggesting Romney will win either of these two states. I'm simply accounting for them as long-shots. You could argue CO as a potential long-shot of Obama's, but that seriously complicates the math, as it introduces New Hampshire and the 2nd district of Maine to the discussion.

Which leads to the other half of the point ... Obama's the incumbent. Once people decide he's not the right guy, why would they come back to him absent some major news? A real-true-honest-Romney +1 is more bankable than a real-true-honest-Obama +1.

 

[AmyNation]

The issue with assuming Romney has a path to victory without Ohio, is it flies in the face of history.

Is Romney such a unique candidate that he can do what no other republican in the history of our nation has been able to do? My guess is no.

 

[Charles_Main]

The one thing the polls always miss is how the Last min Undecideds are going to break. Historically they break Heavily for the Challengers. all the most so when the Economic Situation is not good.

 

[Charles_Main]

The issue with assuming Romney has a path to victory without Ohio, is it flies in the face of history.

Is Romney such a unique candidate that he can do what no other republican in the history of our nation has been able to do? My guess is no.

That is always what people say, Until it happens. The Problem with paying such close attention to Ohio, is that it ignores that in all those previous elections where the Republican didn't win with out Ohio, they also didn't get for example, PA, or MI, or WI. Anything is still possible.

 

[AmyNation]

The issue with assuming Romney has a path to victory without Ohio, is it flies in the face of history.

Is Romney such a unique candidate that he can do what no other republican in the history of our nation has been able to do? My guess is no.

That is always what people say, Until it happens. The Problem with paying such close attention to Ohio, is that it ignores that in all those previous elections where the Republican didn't win with out Ohio, they also didn't get for example, PA, or MI, or WI. Anything is still possible.

Well yes, that's sort of the point. Ohio is a perfect gauge for the GOP, if you haven't convinced Ohio voters, you haven't convinced the majority of the nation.

 

[Sarg]

Well yes, that's sort of the point. Ohio is a perfect gauge for the GOP, if you haven't convinced Ohio voters, you haven't convinced the majority of the nation.

The trouble is that Obama's running on a issue that Ohio cares about more than Wisconsin, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire or Virginia in the auto-bailout. It is true that this plays even larger in Michigan, but the Romney family also has history with the state that may partially offset there.

 

[NYcarbineer]

It's not Romney who needs Ohio, it's Obama.

Romney has 191 safe electoral votes. Add in North Carolina's 15 (only a "battleground" in name at this point) to 206.

The other state where Romney has a clear polling lead is Florida's +29 ... That's 235.

Romney has narrow polling leads in Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). These are still reversible, but even the Obama campaign is leaving these names off the "firewall" talk these days. That's 257.

This leaves Romney 12 short of a tie (which he's likely to win in House delegations) and 13 short of an outright win. Ohio by itself is 18 electoral votes. Obama simply must have it. His only other option is to reverse Virginia or Colorado - that's hard to do without momentum, especially since there's no practical hope of undecideds breaking for the incumbent.

Romney, on the other hand, has several bank shots to win without Ohio. Wisconsin plus any other state does the trick. So does Iowa + Nevada. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan are 1-shot wins for Romney ... they may be long shots, but it is true that neither state has been blanketed with ads in either direction yet. Some movement might be possible.

Even if you think Romney has only 10% chance in PA and MI, and 25% in Ohio, that's still a 40% chance of winning the election outright without talking about the Wisconsin or Iowa combos. .

Obama can win without Ohio, Iowa, and Florida if he wins Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

If Romney is too weak to win Ohio it doesn't make sense that he'd turn Wisconsin around.

 

[Sarg]

Obama can win without Ohio, Iowa, and Florida if he wins Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

Only if he also takes Virginia. That combo's at 262 without Virginia (or New Hampshire or 2nd Maine, but they're too small to matter). Your point would have been stronger if you gave him Iowa and New Hampshire, which is the argument currently coming from the Obama campaign. The trouble with this is Romney's pulling into a New Hampshire lead in recent polling.

 

[Liability]

It's not Romney who needs Ohio, it's Obama.

Romney has 191 safe electoral votes. Add in North Carolina's 15 (only a "battleground" in name at this point) to 206.

The other state where Romney has a clear polling lead is Florida's +29 ... That's 235.

Romney has narrow polling leads in Virginia (13) and Colorado (9). These are still reversible, but even the Obama campaign is leaving these names off the "firewall" talk these days. That's 257.

This leaves Romney 12 short of a tie (which he's likely to win in House delegations) and 13 short of an outright win. Ohio by itself is 18 electoral votes. Obama simply must have it. His only other option is to reverse Virginia or Colorado - that's hard to do without momentum, especially since there's no practical hope of undecideds breaking for the incumbent.

Romney, on the other hand, has several bank shots to win without Ohio. Wisconsin plus any other state does the trick. So does Iowa + Nevada. Both Pennsylvania and Michigan are 1-shot wins for Romney ... they may be long shots, but it is true that neither state has been blanketed with ads in either direction yet. Some movement might be possible.

Even if you think Romney has only 10% chance in PA and MI, and 25% in Ohio, that's still a 40% chance of winning the election outright without talking about the Wisconsin or Iowa combos. .

Obama can win without Ohio, Iowa, and Florida if he wins Nevada, New Mexico, and Colorado.

If Romney is too weak to win Ohio it doesn't make sense that he'd turn Wisconsin around.

^ Carbuncle ASSumes that The ONE WILL get ALL the States that used to be considered a given.

Carbuncle cannot answer what Sarg said.

Carbuncle thinks that in order to claim Wisconsin Romney would "have to" also be able to claim Ohio.

Because -- apparently in Carbuncle's special school -- you can't have one without the other.



Sarg pwnd the lib argument. carbuncle just keeps going like an energizer retard.