Electoral Map

[clevergirl]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

 

[Dreamy]

Much depends on the turnout.

 

[decker]

Much depends on the turnout.

well if that happened the dems have to do massive inquest to lost landslide by that much. means would have lost michigan and pa according to that poll.

 

[Saigon]

I think 327 is overly optimistic - I'm going to stick with my prediction that Obama will hit around 300.

 

[auditor0007]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

Damn, I guess it's over then.

 

[decker]

Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211

10/11/12

Dick Morris says that if an incumbent cannot reach 50% in the polls, he'll likely lose.

So I tabulated Obama's last three poll numbers by state.
State Last 3 Polls Projected Winner
COLORADO 47, 46, 49 Romney
CONNECTICUT 51, 54, 54 Obama
FLORIDA 48, 49, 46 Romney
IOWA 49, 48, 51 Romney
MICHIGAN 49, 46, 48 Romney
MINNESOTA 53, 48, 51 Obama
NEVADA 51, 47, 47 Romney
NEW HAMPSHIRE 48, 47, 54 Romney
NEW MEXICO 54, 51, 51 Obama
NORTH CAROLINA 48, 41, 47 Romney
OHIO 48, 45, 51 Romney
PENNSYLVANIA 51, 50, 47 Romney
VIRGINIA 47, 51, 50 Romney
WISCONSIN 50, 51, 49 Obama

Let's project that he'll win the state if he gets to 50% and lose otherwise. If you build the map using this data, Romney wins the 2012 election with 327 electoral votes!

Read more at Latest Projection: Romney 327, Obama 211 [Click to see map]

Damn, I guess it's over then.

i don,t think romney win by that much. it close which he has a edge nationally

 

[AmyNation]

That will never happen.

I think Romney will win, but by a far smaller margin.

 

[Conservative]

That will never happen.

I think Romney will win, but by a far smaller margin.

pretty much this.

Every time I look at things, it all seems to come down to OH.

 

[decker]

That will never happen.

I think Romney will win, but by a far smaller margin.

no doubt romney has edge

if he wins va, nc and fi,co as expected then all he needs is following scenores
(a) ohio
(b) (not ohio) nv and iowa ( wins on a tie due to gop house)
(c) (not ohio) nh,wi

so he in strong position. but no doubt ohio a key swing state

 

[decker]

That will never happen.

I think Romney will win, but by a far smaller margin.

pretty much this.

Every time I look at things, it all seems to come down to OH.

very true though romney can win without ohio. Obama must win ohio in my view though. without it be very hard.

to be fair it be hard for both men without ohio but espeically the president.

 

[TNHarley]

I think Romney will win. I used to think I was supporting the loser, but I dont now! Winning by that much? Nah

 

[decker]

I think Romney will win. I used to think I was supporting the loser, but I dont now! Winning by that much? Nah

he front runner and has been since october 3rd. the first debate changed everything.

president can still win but he underdog no doubt and hoping midwest can save him. But its a tough ask

 

[AmyNation]

If Romney loses Ohio, he will have lost the election.

Ohio is key to his win, not just because of electoral votes. Where Ohio goes, the country goes, it's one of the reasons no republican has ever won without Ohio.

 

[decker]

If Romney loses Ohio, he will have lost the election.

Ohio is key to his win, not just because of electoral votes. Where Ohio goes, the country goes, it's one of the reasons no republican has ever won without Ohio.

not sure that true though. if he win iwoa and nv or wi he win with either a tie or win. yes harder route without ohio but can win

probally right though. whoever wins ohio will be massive favourite to win election. key state.

 

[AceRothstein]

If Dick Morris says it then it must be true.

 

[AmyNation]

I've said before, Ohio is a barometer for the nation. If he loses Ohio, he won't take enough states to win.

 

[decker]

I've said before, Ohio is a barometer for the nation. If he loses Ohio, he won't take enough states to win.

true but all i am saying is map shows he can win without it but its a tougher road

look it a key state for both men no doubt about it.,

 

[NYcarbineer]

The problem with your theory is, in 2008 Obama was under 50% in Indiana, Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina, in the final polls,

and won all four of those states.

 

[decker]

If Dick Morris says it then it must be true.

to be fair dick morris is a bit biased

 

[tinydancer]

Here's Rasmussen. The lead is very small but this is promising.

Rasmussen: Romney 261, Obama 253

State-by-state polling by Rasmussen Reports now shows Mitt Romney narrowly leading President Obama in the projected tally of electoral votes — 261 to 253.

Of the nine key swing states, Rasmussen’s polling (all conducted during the past week except for in Pennsylvania) shows Romney ahead in Florida (by 5 percentage points), Virginia (by 3 points), Colorado (by 4 points), and New Hampshire (by 2 points).

It shows Obama ahead in Pennsylvania (by 5 points), Wisconsin (by 2 points), and Nevada (by 2 points). It shows Ohio and Iowa tied.

Rasmussen: Romney 261, Obama 253 | The Weekly Standard