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Electoral College (Demographics And Various Different Scenarios)

Lucy Hamilton

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

1602723105360.png

1602723138165.png


^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

1602723283360.png


As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

1602723483825.png


If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

1602723660498.png

1602723757032.png


1602723826000.png


If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

1602724108658.png

1602724129128.png


1602724158755.png
 
Last edited:

theHawk

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

View attachment 401713
View attachment 401714

^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

View attachment 401716

As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

View attachment 401719

If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

View attachment 401721
View attachment 401723

View attachment 401724

If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

View attachment 401727
View attachment 401728

View attachment 401729
It’s all about the white vote. The only thing Biden has going for him is he isn’t as hated as Hillary. If President Trump can increase the white vote just a few points from last time, he wins. He can give a few points up, but he’d have to make up for it with a LOT more black and Latino vote.
 
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Lucy Hamilton

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

View attachment 401713
View attachment 401714

^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

View attachment 401716

As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

View attachment 401719

If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

View attachment 401721
View attachment 401723

View attachment 401724

If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

View attachment 401727
View attachment 401728

View attachment 401729
It’s all about the white vote. The only thing Biden has going for him is he isn’t as hated as Hillary. If President Trump can increase the white vote just a few points from last time, he wins. He can give a few points up, but he’d have to make up for it with a LOT more black and Latino vote.

I disagree, because there has been an increase in various States of Black voters and Hispanic voters the latter especially in Arizona and Florida, The Donald needs to increase his percentage of White, non college graduates by about 4% and he needs to increase his percentage of Black voters by about 2% and he needs to increase his percentage of Hispanic voters by about 2%
 

theHawk

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

View attachment 401713
View attachment 401714

^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

View attachment 401716

As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

View attachment 401719

If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

View attachment 401721
View attachment 401723

View attachment 401724

If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

View attachment 401727
View attachment 401728

View attachment 401729
It’s all about the white vote. The only thing Biden has going for him is he isn’t as hated as Hillary. If President Trump can increase the white vote just a few points from last time, he wins. He can give a few points up, but he’d have to make up for it with a LOT more black and Latino vote.

I disagree, because there has been an increase in various States of Black voters and Hispanic voters the latter especially in Arizona and Florida, The Donald needs to increase his percentage of White, non college graduates by about 4% and he needs to increase his percentage of Black voters by about 2% and he needs to increase his percentage of Hispanic voters by about 2%
+2 for blacks and Latinos won’t do anything. I doubt he’ll get more college graduates. He only needs a few points in the non-college, it’s the largest percentage of the electorate.
 
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Lucy Hamilton

Lucy Hamilton

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

View attachment 401713
View attachment 401714

^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

View attachment 401716

As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

View attachment 401719

If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

View attachment 401721
View attachment 401723

View attachment 401724

If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

View attachment 401727
View attachment 401728

View attachment 401729
It’s all about the white vote. The only thing Biden has going for him is he isn’t as hated as Hillary. If President Trump can increase the white vote just a few points from last time, he wins. He can give a few points up, but he’d have to make up for it with a LOT more black and Latino vote.

I disagree, because there has been an increase in various States of Black voters and Hispanic voters the latter especially in Arizona and Florida, The Donald needs to increase his percentage of White, non college graduates by about 4% and he needs to increase his percentage of Black voters by about 2% and he needs to increase his percentage of Hispanic voters by about 2%
+2 for blacks and Latinos won’t do anything. I doubt he’ll get more college graduates. He only needs a few points in the non-college, it’s the largest percentage of the electorate.

Actually going from 8% to 10% Black votes and from 27% to 29% Hispanic votes does mean quite a lot in terms of the Electoral College vote, on my estimates he needs to increase by 4% his share of the White, non college graduate vote.
 

Montrovant

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Interesting.

I'll point out that in each of those scenarios Biden gets more of the popular vote. If he does that and doesn't win, it's sure to bring more calls for getting rid of the Electoral College.

I noticed that Trump gets the Senate-based votes from Nebraska in each scenario and from Maine in 3 of the 4 scenarios. Trump did get the vote from one Maine district in 2016, but Clinton got the other and won the Senate-based votes, so I wonder why Trump gets them in your scenarios? Do you know if it has to do with changing demographics, or redistricting, or something else?

The biggest problem with your scenarios is that it seems unlikely for either candidate to win the same percentage of any group's votes in every state. That probably makes this pretty inaccurate. That said, it's a fun look at how changes in overall trends can affect the election. I appreciate it.
 

Quasar44

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Every single poll has Buffoon Biden up in Michigan and Pennsylvania
Our only hope is the “ silent majority “
If we lose FL then it’d over
 

Oddball

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Okay being a complete Political Junkie I do love playing around with things like this. I'm going to show some Electoral College situations using percentages of Demographic Groups for both Joe Biden and Donald Trump and showing various different scenarios. We are in most cases dealing with very small shifts in percentages in one Demographic Group that produces a very different Electoral College scenario.

The National Polls mean not a great deal, what does mean a great deal are the Electoral College votes, and like most Elections this Election will come down to who can get the most peoples out to actually vote. In certain combined States in 2016 - Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania there were approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

Okay the below is Electoral College Scenario I this in my opinion is the best The Donald could hope for.

The Demographics for this are that The Donald gets 78% of White, non-college graduates, 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians:

View attachment 401713
View attachment 401714

^^^^ The above Demographic percentages result in this:

View attachment 401716

As I commented above very small percentages changes in just one Demographic Group result in very different Scenarios. This is the first if we give The Donald the same as the above in ALL Demographic Groups except ONE - 35% of White, college graduates, 10% of Blacks, 31% of Hispanics and 29% of Asians BUT we change the percentage in White, non college graduate from the above 78% to 74% we get the below Electoral College Scenario II:

View attachment 401719

If we change TWO of the Demographic groups for The Donald and reduce the Black percentage from 10% to 8% and we reduce the Hispanic percentage from 31% to 27% then we get the below Electoral College Scenario III:

View attachment 401721
View attachment 401723

View attachment 401724

If we increase for The Donald the White, non college graduates percentage from 78% to 86% and we increase the White, college graduates percentage from 65% for Biden to 72% for Biden then we get the Electoral College vote below and it is the below Electoral College vote scenario why I am commenting in my opening comments that those approx 4.9 Millions peoples who did NOT go and vote, they were low to middle income Blue Collar and White, a Demographic that helped The Donald to win Minnesota, Michigan and Pennsylvania but 4.9 Millions MORE of them did NOT bother to go out and vote, The Donald and his Campaign need to target these 4.9 Millions and attempt to get them out to vote this time.

The below is Electoral College Scenario IV:

View attachment 401727
View attachment 401728

View attachment 401729
If teevee ads are indicative, Biden is in big trouble in Minnesota.

There is no commercial break after the 9:00 hour on any channel that isn't runing a Biden ad....In Minnesota....A state that hasn't gone republican since 1968.
 

jwoodie

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Is a 269-269 tie reasonably possible? It would be interesting to watch the House determine the election. Shades of 1876?
 

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