El Nino Watch Party 2023

[Matted Joybeard]

Farewell La Nina, it's been a great three years, but we have some baking to do.

What does the future hold? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts a 'SUPER EL NINO' developing aiyeeee! Their prediction seems to be an outlier for the moment. Most other outfits are calling for a less severe El Nino developing later this year. On the other hand, our own professor, solar physicist, climatologist, atmospheric physicist Billy Bob claims they are all wrong. NOAA itself is clueless. In fact, it is just going to continue getting colder. Quite the contrarian take! Certainly not a 'hot' take.

So where are we going to end up? Getting colder? SUPER EL NINO? Post your predictions, your actual data, your fake data, discount the scientific establishment! Have at it and have fun!

 

[ReinyDays]

I predict widespread daylight until this evening when we'll see increasing darkness ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Already setting records and it is not even El Nino yet. Lets go!

 

[ReinyDays]

Already setting records and it is not even El Nino yet. Lets go!

View attachment 768794

Do the 3.4 maps confirm your claim? ... see all the "blue" in the Central Pacific on the right ... that's why all the rest of the indices are still negative ... "La Niña to Neutral conditions" ...

Oh ... and 1997-98 is still the most intense El Niño season followed closely by 1982-83 ... the 2.1 index was over 4.0 in these years ... maybe go back to the website and read a little closer ... likely it's a bogus site feeding you bullshit ... always check the NOAA El Niño Index Dashboard before making crazy claims about central Pacific water temperatures ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[ReinyDays]

Do the 3.4 maps confirm your claim? ... see all the "blue" in the Central Pacific on the right ... that's why all the rest of the indices are still negative ... "La Niña to Neutral conditions" ...
Oh ... and 1997-98 is still the most intense El Niño season followed closely by 1982-83 ... the 2.1 index was over 4.0 in these years ... maybe go back to the website and read a little closer ... likely it's a bogus site feeding you bullshit ... always check the NOAA El Niño Index Dashboard before making crazy claims about central Pacific water temperatures ...

 

[ding]

Farewell La Nina, it's been a great three years, but we have some baking to do.

What does the future hold? The Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts a 'SUPER EL NINO' developing aiyeeee! Their prediction seems to be an outlier for the moment. Most other outfits are calling for a less severe El Nino developing later this year. On the other hand, our own professor, solar physicist, climatologist, atmospheric physicist Billy Bob claims they are all wrong. NOAA itself is clueless. In fact, it is just going to continue getting colder. Quite the contrarian take! Certainly not a 'hot' take.

So where are we going to end up? Getting colder? SUPER EL NINO? Post your predictions, your actual data, your fake data, discount the scientific establishment! Have at it and have fun!

View attachment 768449
View attachment 768451

My prediction is that climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty will continue because climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty are hallmarks of our bipolar glaciated world due to its landmass configuration.

 

[SweetSue92]

All I'm saying is for the first time in years and years and years, we are on track to have a REAL spring again--in April. Not in, say, late May. Spring. In APRIL.

So whatever is happening, great. More please.

 

[Likkmee]

Do the 3.4 maps confirm your claim? ... see all the "blue" in the Central Pacific on the right ... that's why all the rest of the indices are still negative ... "La Niña to Neutral conditions" ...

Oh ... and 1997-98 is still the most intense El Niño season followed closely by 1982-83 ... the 2.1 index was over 4.0 in these years ... maybe go back to the website and read a little closer ... likely it's a bogus site feeding you bullshit ... always check the NOAA El Niño Index Dashboard before making crazy claims about central Pacific water temperatures ...

All I know is I filled my ice cube tray to the brim last night and just awoke to the door flying off the freezer !
Something is amiss

 

[ReinyDays]

All I know is I filled my ice cube tray to the brim last night and just awoke to the door flying off the freezer !
Something is amiss

Buy better quality dynamite ... not that crappy stuff they use in lithium batteries ...

 

[Crick]

My prediction is that climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty will continue because climate fluctuations and environmental uncertainty are hallmarks of our bipolar glaciated world due to its landmass configuration.

Why are they hallmarks of a bipolar, glaciated world with our current landmass configuration? And, for that matter, whenever did the planet not have two poles?

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Do the 3.4 maps confirm your claim? ... see all the "blue" in the Central Pacific on the right ... that's why all the rest of the indices are still negative ... "La Niña to Neutral conditions" ...
Oh ... and 1997-98 is still the most intense El Niño season followed closely by 1982-83 ... the 2.1 index was over 4.0 in these years ... maybe go back to the website and read a little closer ... likely it's a bogus site feeding you bullshit ... always check the NOAA El Niño Index Dashboard before making crazy claims about central Pacific water temperatures ...

Maybe question whether you might need to read a little closer. Where's the 'crazy' claim about Pacific water temperature other than in your imagination?

 

[ReinyDays]

Maybe question whether you might need to read a little closer. Where's the 'crazy' claim about Pacific water temperature other than in your imagination?

"Super El Niño" ? ... haw haw haw haw haw haw ... you wanna start naming atmospheric rivers? ... does "bomb cyclone" turn you on? ...

Yeah ... fucking crazy ... just like hypercanes and hockey sticks ... stupid names for stupid people ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

"Super El Niño" ? ... haw haw haw haw haw haw ... you wanna start naming atmospheric rivers? ... does "bomb cyclone" turn you on? ...

Yeah ... fucking crazy ... just like hypercanes and hockey sticks ... stupid names for stupid people ...

I cannot help if you're not able to follow a short thread without making weird leaps and miscomparisons while attributing to me a bunch of statements and imaginary desires I never made nor possess.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[ReinyDays]

I cannot help if you're not able to follow a short thread without making weird leaps and miscomparisons while attributing to me a bunch of statements and imaginary desires I never made nor possess.

I am following the thread ... that's why it's so funny ... tweeting your science? ... this is a joke, right? ... ha ha ha ...

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Hey MJ, it's me ReinyDays. NOAA's global sea surface temps covering 60S - 60N temps are at a record high and it is not even El Nino yet? Yeah well, NOAA's data is 'bullshit' don't you know? Read closer - look at the NOAA's non-bullshit El Nino 3.4 data for 5N - 5S / 170W - 120W only. Actually, it is me that is not reading closely enough to catch that the two data sets are incomparable in area coverage, or to catch that you are implicitly wondering what global sea surface temps may look like should El Nino materialize, but whatever MJ. I enjoy being an argumentative dipshit, so I will just invent that you are making up claims, even though you not editorializing the data generated by other agencies which I schizophrenically believe one minute and disbelieve the next. That just how I roll, it is who I am. I mean, you know me MJ, I like to project a lot, that is why you are the one that cannot read and whatever else I might pretend. Now MJ, please excuse me while I step out for brunch and eat your entire ass dick and balls and fuck off.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Record temps.

Western Pacific getting toasty, but ...

... the eastern Pacific not so much presently.

A mystery in the Pacific is complicating climate projections

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which has a huge influence on global weather patterns, isn’t behaving as computer models predicted. That’s puzzling scientists.
....

Top global climate models have predicted for more than 20 years that the tropical Pacific would gradually shift toward an “El Niño-like” state, with the surface waters warming more rapidly toward the east than toward the west.

Instead, just the opposite is going on. The western tropical Pacific has warmed dramatically, as predicted, but unusually persistent upwelling of cool subsurface water has led to a slight drop in average sea surface temperature over much of the eastern tropical Pacific.

The result is a strengthening west-to-east temperature contrast that increasingly resembles La Niña. Scientists expect that El Niño events will continue to occur – such as the one predicted to arrive later this year – but they will take place on a backdrop of an ocean that looks more like La Niña.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

There we have it.

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.​

In May, weak El Niño conditions emerged as above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strengthened across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. All of the latest weekly Niño indices were more than +0.5°C: Niño-3.4 was +0.8°C, Niño-3 was +1.1°C, and Niño1+2 was +2.3°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperatures anomalies remained positive [Fig. 3], reflecting the continuation of widespread anomalous warmth below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. For the May average, low-level wind anomalies were westerly over the western equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convection was enhanced along the equator and was suppressed over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the equatorial SOI and traditional SOI were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the emergence of El Niño conditions.

The most recent IRI plume indicates the continuation of El Niño through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 6]. Confidence in the occurrence of El Niño increases into the fall, reflecting the expectation that seasonally averaged Niño-3.4 index values will continue to increase. Another downwelling Kelvin wave is emerging in the western Pacific Ocean, and westerly wind anomalies are forecasted to recur over the western Pacific. At its peak, the chance of a strong El Niño is nearly the same as it was last month (56% chance of November-January Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C), with an 84% chance of exceeding moderate strength (Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.0°C). In summary, El Niño conditions are present and are expected to gradually strengthen into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24 [Fig. 7].

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Where is the reversion to the mean?