El Nino Watch Party 2023

[Matted Joybeard]

And this is entering winter for Antarctica. Pretty fucked up! This could compound itself during their spring and summer to be something truly fucking ugly. We will see but I wouldn't be shocked to see this as a possible tipping point. The arctic on the otherhand is holding study because of the extra moisture and extra cloud cover allowing for more first year new ice. The question is how many more years or decades will it take before this negative forcing allow for the ice to remain in the arctic.

Yes, the onset of winter there and its looking like summer from the ice standpoint.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Dakar Nino???

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

I am guessing that it will mean
1. More rainfall over Africa which will reduce SAL. This will allow for more instability over the mdr in June-August.
2. Increase SST's over the MDR and Eastern Atlantic will allow rapid development of tropical waves into cyclones.

I'd look for some impressive activity in the mdr this season and possibly this countering the nino in the eastern pacific...This is anything but 1983, 1984, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2009 and 2013 as the atlantic is far warmer, far higher instability + reduced SAL and lower shear. I'd bet dollars to donuts that the caribbean and southern gulf will start seeing higher shear in July-Oct time period so activity will probably be lower but we'll probably see a few canes in the mdr that reverse fast into the weakeness between the bermuda and azores ridges.

This is why the ecmwf seasonal forecast forecast slightly above avg even through we're going towards a strong nino in the Eastern Pacific.

 

[2aguy]

I predict widespread daylight until this evening when we'll see increasing darkness ...

Sadly in 6 months we are going to experience extreme cold......climate change at work...

 

[ReinyDays]

Sadly in 6 months we are going to experience extreme cold......climate change at work...

We need to burn tires ... think of them poor folk in Chicago ...

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

What will limit this one that didn't limit 2015 is 3.4 is near 140 west and so far it is far cooler compared to 2015. Sure near central America is similar but that isn't were these events are rated.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Some coastal regions are now ice-free where that has not been observed before.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Updated predictions from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology - hot stuff.

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

 

[Matted Joybeard]

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

That is the results from this!

 

[Matted Joybeard]

Wild shit happening all around.

 

[fncceo]

So where are we going to end up? Getting colder? SUPER EL NINO? Post your predictions

The El Nino (and El Nina) weather phenomenon were observed and named by the first Spanish explorers to The Pacific nearly 500 years ago...

... despite the fact that neither Europeans nor Pacific Islanders drove very large SUVs.

 

[Crick]

The El Nino (and El Nina) weather phenomenon were observed and named by the first Spanish explorers to The Pacific nearly 500 years ago...

... despite the fact that neither Europeans nor Pacific Islanders drove very large SUVs.

No one here or anywhere else has suggested that ENSO is the result of AGW.

 

[Jessica-stormlover]

Here is the whole CPC weekly update that has niño 3.4 at +1.0C.`1

NIño 1+2 at +2.9C
NIño 3 at +1.4C
NIño 3.4 at +1.0C
Niño 4 at +0.7C

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

 

[Matted Joybeard]