CDZ Economic impact of repealing Obamacare

[SingleVoyce]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

 

[DarkFury]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

Major insurance companies are Obamacare because they are losing money. So their stock values would go up.

 

[320 Years of History]

In June 2015, the CBO and JCT published its analysis of the budgetary impacts of repealing the ACA.

One can think what one wants of their results -- nobody can prohibit another from thinking anything -- but absent equally rigorous evaluation, I don't know that there is more to say. I certainly have nothing to say about it for I know damn well I am in no position to refute the CBO and JCT's findings and I'm not arrogant enough to focus on one or several "pet" features of the ACA and claim it/they invalidate the CBO's/JCT's primary findings and conclusions results.

 

[william the wie]

Hospitals and clinics hate it: too many patients who can't pay their deductibles and co-pays. But it will die without being killed just look at what is happening with co-pays and deductibles

 

[william the wie]

In June 2015, the CBO and JCT published its analysis of the budgetary impacts of repealing the ACA.

One can think what one wants of their results -- nobody can prohibit another from thinking anything -- but absent equally rigorous evaluation, I don't know that there is more to say. I certainly have nothing to say about it for I know damn well I am in no position to refute the CBO and JCT's findings and I'm not arrogant enough to focus on one or several "pet" features of the ACA and claim it/they invalidate the CBO's/JCT's primary findings and conclusions results.

I concur. Access and affordability is dropping like a rock for the poor, while standardization of care helps the non-poor tremendously. A somewhat bloodyminded approach that leads to riots but it is fixing healthcare..

 

[320 Years of History]

In June 2015, the CBO and JCT published its analysis of the budgetary impacts of repealing the ACA.

One can think what one wants of their results -- nobody can prohibit another from thinking anything -- but absent equally rigorous evaluation, I don't know that there is more to say. I certainly have nothing to say about it for I know damn well I am in no position to refute the CBO and JCT's findings and I'm not arrogant enough to focus on one or several "pet" features of the ACA and claim it/they invalidate the CBO's/JCT's primary findings and conclusions results.

I concur. Access and affordability is dropping like a rock for the poor, while standardization of care helps the non-poor tremendously. A somewhat bloodyminded approach that leads to riots but it is fixing healthcare..

I'm not entirely sure what from my post or the CBO/JCT's report you concur with. Does the study contain observations about access and affordability to healthcare for the poor? The parts of it that I focused on had to do with the quantifiable economic impact of repealing the ACA. I didn't see anything about qualitative factors such as access and affordability, or something that attempted to quantify those factors.

 

[Fishlore]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

ACA is NOT going to repealed. Anyone who thinks or talks differently is either lying or has been conned by a liar. The USA is over the watershed for universal medical coverage. The right wing will squeal and tweak in order to keep their ill-informed supporters stirred up, but there is no chance of going back to the failed patchwork which ACA replaced.

Fringe righties can't accept that fact any more than they can accept the fact of gay marriage. That's OK. It took lots of them a century to finally accept that the Confederacy lost the Civil War. Some still dream of repealing Social Security. These are not serious players.

The real struggle will be with the Public Option on the ACA exchanges and the expansion of Medicaid to cover the millions who are still dependent on the costly, failed old system.

 

[SingleVoyce]

In June 2015, the CBO and JCT published its analysis of the budgetary impacts of repealing the ACA.

One can think what one wants of their results -- nobody can prohibit another from thinking anything -- but absent equally rigorous evaluation, I don't know that there is more to say. I certainly have nothing to say about it for I know damn well I am in no position to refute the CBO and JCT's findings and I'm not arrogant enough to focus on one or several "pet" features of the ACA and claim it/they invalidate the CBO's/JCT's primary findings and conclusions results.

That's a very interesting analysis. Thanks for posting it. However, it concentrates mostly on the impact to the federal budget and deficits and only obliquely addresses the factors that I wanted to discuss. I am more interested in short term impacts on the health care and health insurance industries resulting from the "shock" effect of suddenly terminating the program.

 

[Silent Warrior]

What if we look at the proposition using the logic used by those pushing raising the minimum wage? If Obamacare is repealed the cost of insurance premiums would go down. The extra money left in the budget of those buying insurance would go into the economy and stimulate growth. Under Obamacare those funds are going to the insurance companies in the form of premium subsidies and not benefiting the economy at all. Extra growth means extra tax revenue and more funds in the federal coffers.

 

[320 Years of History]

In June 2015, the CBO and JCT published its analysis of the budgetary impacts of repealing the ACA.

One can think what one wants of their results -- nobody can prohibit another from thinking anything -- but absent equally rigorous evaluation, I don't know that there is more to say. I certainly have nothing to say about it for I know damn well I am in no position to refute the CBO and JCT's findings and I'm not arrogant enough to focus on one or several "pet" features of the ACA and claim it/they invalidate the CBO's/JCT's primary findings and conclusions results.

That's a very interesting analysis. Thanks for posting it. However, it concentrates mostly on the impact to the federal budget and deficits and only obliquely addresses the factors that I wanted to discuss. I am more interested in short term impacts on the health care and health insurance industries resulting from the "shock" effect of suddenly terminating the program.

Oh....TY for clarifying that for me. That is certainly not what that study addressed in the main. Indeed, I don't recall what inferences or estimates it offered in that regard.

 

[320 Years of History]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

ACA is NOT going to repealed. Anyone who thinks or talks differently is either lying or has been conned by a liar. The USA is over the watershed for universal medical coverage. The right wing will squeal and tweak in order to keep their ill-informed supporters stirred up, but there is no chance of going back to the failed patchwork which ACA replaced.

Fringe righties can't accept that fact any more than they can accept the fact of gay marriage. That's OK. It took lots of them a century to finally accept that the Confederacy lost the Civil War. Some still dream of repealing Social Security. These are not serious players.

The real struggle will be with the Public Option on the ACA exchanges and the expansion of Medicaid to cover the millions who are still dependent on the costly, failed old system.

Bold:
At the moment, they're not. What happens if or when the fringe becomes the majority? Would any given policy or position suddenly have less objective or ethical merit? I don't think so, but fringe-come-mainstream folks likely would disagree, and repeal any number of things, although hopefully not the history texts that say the South lost the War of the States. LOL

 

[I amso IR]

I suppose we will simply have to try it to find out. At this point what is a few trillion dollars one way or the other? Hopefully the new enroll program will function a bit better than OB's. Maybe the Fed's can get a true copy from the Chinese or Russians.

 

[Fishlore]

I suppose we will simply have to try it to find out. At this point what is a few trillion dollars one way or the other? Hopefully the new enroll program will function a bit better than OB's. Maybe the Fed's can get a true copy from the Chinese or Russians.

Neither China nor Russia follow the model of ACA, which is government subsidy of for-profit corporations. Switzerland and Germany would be more appropriate models for the USA to look at. The immediate and striking difference is that we make no effort to regulate prices for pharmaceuticals etc. or medical care covered by private corporations.

The government does negotiate prices for medical care under Medicare and the difference between what Medicare pays and what private insurace pays for the same procedure in the same hospital is staggering. Our per-capita costs are more than twice what other advanced nations pay for medical care. Those extra billions aren't going to the MDs, they are going to share holders in for-profit corporations. It's a multi-billion dollar scam.

 

[SingleVoyce]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

Major insurance companies are Obamacare because they are losing money. So their stock values would go up.

I haven't seen any evidence that any insurance companies are losing money. Do you have a source that supports that statement?

 

[SingleVoyce]

What if we look at the proposition using the logic used by those pushing raising the minimum wage? If Obamacare is repealed the cost of insurance premiums would go down. The extra money left in the budget of those buying insurance would go into the economy and stimulate growth. Under Obamacare those funds are going to the insurance companies in the form of premium subsidies and not benefiting the economy at all. Extra growth means extra tax revenue and more funds in the federal coffers.

Why do you think insurance premiums would go down?

 

[DarkFury]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

Major insurance companies are Obamacare because they are losing money. So their stock values would go up.

I haven't seen any evidence that any insurance companies are losing money. Do you have a source that supports that statement?

Nation's largest insurer may exit Obamacare due to losses

Health Insurers Flock and Flee Obamacare

 

[SingleVoyce]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

Major insurance companies are Obamacare because they are losing money. So their stock values would go up.

I haven't seen any evidence that any insurance companies are losing money. Do you have a source that supports that statement?

Nation's largest insurer may exit Obamacare due to losses

Health Insurers Flock and Flee Obamacare

From your first article:

"While its Obamacare business weighed on UnitedHealth's fourth-quarter results, it still had a profitable year thanks to its other operations. The insurer earned $5.8 billion in 2015, up from $5.6 billion a year earlier."

They are not losing money overall and their stock value has gone up considerably since that article was published. Other companies seem to be making money from their Obamacare business so this seems to be some kind of a problem with United Health's business model.

From your second article:

"Pollack says companies were being cautious because they were concerned the marketplaces might not be profitable. The fact that more companies are looking to sign up shows a vote of confidence in the system.

“Companies believe the marketplaces are stable and good places to provide their product, and that there are good opportunities to make a profit,” Pollack says."

 

[320 Years of History]

Let's assume that Ted Cruz is elected President and follows through on his campaign promise to repeal every word of Obamacare on his first day in office, what would the immediate economic be?

This thread is NOT for the discussion of the pros and cons of Obamacare itself.

Some facts:

About 20 million people have insurance as a result of the law.

Most of these people receive subsidies which would cease to exist after repeal.

Many of these people have insurance because it was required by the law and would presumably drop it it was no longer required.

Insurance companies are prohibited by the law from dropping people's insurance because of pre-existing conditions. They would presumably drop many of these individuals if not required by law to continue their policies.

Hospitals and other health care providers have set their rates based on the fact that more of their customers are insured.

Insurance companies have set their rates based on the larger pool of insured individuals.

So, what would be the financial impact on health care providers and insurance companies if all of these people lost their insurance on the second day of President Cruz's term? What would be the impact on the rest of the economy and the financial markets?

Major insurance companies are Obamacare because they are losing money. So their stock values would go up.

I haven't seen any evidence that any insurance companies are losing money. Do you have a source that supports that statement?

Nation's largest insurer may exit Obamacare due to losses

Health Insurers Flock and Flee Obamacare

As a management consultant, I hold firmly to the principle that businesses must tailor their strategies and tactics to take fullest advantage of significant changes in the competitive and operational landscape. The ACA is more than adequately significant for companies to do just that. And guess what, there are lots of consultancies that focus expressly on healthcare-related strategies and tactics in terms of people, processes, technology and finance; moreover, they do so, as befits the client's needs and preferences, from multiple angles such as service delivery, marketing strategy, insurance provision, tax minimization, etc.

That a company such as UHC has not implemented changes to their business model can be the result of any number of things that absolutely nothing to do with the ACA other than that they are militated for by the ACA's extancy. The thing is that every one of those things has to do with the company's management and strategic decisions, and, quite frankly, no company is going to openly and publicly attest to any of those reasons as being the key drivers to why they aren't meeting current financial performance objectives. They may do so shortly before going "belly up," or in response to a qualified opinion (going concern driven or not) received from their auditors, but not before or absent such or similar circumstances.

While I'm unwilling to disclose my own firm's intellectual capital pertaining to ACA-driven optimization and change, here is some provided by others:

• http://www.pocp.com/PDF/health-plans-hit-opportunities.pdf
  
• https://www.sg2.com/wp-content/uplo...hanges_New-Marketplaces-New-Opportunities.pdf
  
• Manufacturers Must Optimize Health Care Strategies
• Our thought leadership | Health | PwC’s Strategy&
  
• The future of health care insurance: What’s ahead?

 

[william the wie]

320 no one is disputing that what you see is real what is being disputed are:

The rates at which state and federal exchanges are or are not losing carriers, providers and clients

How quickly the subsidy becomes a tax on the poor and worthless for getting insurance in a growing number of states:

In sum all players are rent-seeking at a compound rate and non-exchange insurance coverage has been standardized nationwide for the non-subsidy eligible.

So there will be something called Ocare but as a reality it will be gutted..

 

[Agit8r]

It's unlikely that any attempts from the left or right will repeal or replace Obamacare. We'll probably be saying that word for another 20 years.