Early Voting Indicates a Decisive Harris Win

[Missouri_Mike]

Veteran pollster Nate Silver said Friday’s Marist poll bodes well for Vice President Harris’s campaign, with just days until the election.

Silver, the founder of ABC’s 538, took to social media to share his opinion, suggesting the lead in the three “blue wall” states that went for former President Trump in 2016 and flipped back to President Biden in 2020 could be encouraging for Harris.


“Reassuring polls for Harris in the sense that the race is likely to remain toss-up-ish,” he posted on the social platform X. “Unless the final NYT/Siena state polls all tilt in the same direction I guess.”

The Marist poll found the vice president is leading Trump by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, an increase from similar Marist polls released in September.

MSN

Really? Let’s hear from the man himself.

 

[Jim H - VA USA]

In an unusual turnout, Republicans have been dominating in early voting this year, but it may not be what it seems. Exit polling of those who have voted early shows Harris with a lopsided lead over Trump. Additionally, turnout among women is roughly ten percentage points higher than men. This would indicate that many of those early Republican voters are women who are crossing over for Harris. MAGA seems to realize this as well because they've been sounding the alarm on social media.

Current early voting according to NBC:

Source

I would view this with a little bit of salt. They can't possibly know the breakdown by party for states like VA where we do not register with a party declaration.

Looks like Trump is going to win, and the next 12 years are going to be great.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

Really? Let’s hear from the man himself.

So, vapid babbling. No evidence.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

They can't possibly know the breakdown by party for states like VA where we do not register with a party declaration

They can make an educated guess.

Early Voting by Party

www.vpap.org

"Virginia does not require voter registration by party. VPAP matched the voter IDs in the DOE file with data provided by L2 Political, which has an algorithm that estimates the likely party of voters, based on factors such as past participation in primary elections"

 

[Missouri_Mike]

So, vapid babbling. No evidence.

You need some English second language classes? Or math? You’re missing one of them. 54-45.

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

You need some English second language classes? Or math? You’re missing one of them. 54-45.

This evidence-free whining won't help you. Or Nate Silver.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Nothing like exit poll bullshit to try to discourage a voter base.

It's actually not exit polls. It's voter registration data regarding early voting in each state.

 

[JohnDB]

Current early voting according to NBC:

View attachment 1035035
Source

I would view this with a little bit of salt. They can't possibly know the breakdown by party for states like VA where we do not register with a party declaration.

Looks like Trump is going to win, and the next 12 years are going to be great.

It's a form of exit polling they have been doing for decades....just now with early voting it's upgraded a bit. It's not foolproof and final nmubers are TBD....but it's still very close.
There's grey area in each early reporting numbers....so we won't know until final counts are in.

But

From states like Virginia and New Hampshire where very little campaigning has been done because it is believed to be a given for Harris she is currently struggling to make even a decent showing.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Good luck with that.

No luck is needed. Women are voting in massive numbers compared to men and Trump is going to lose by a substantial margin.

 

[skye]

yes!

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

I don't see that it indicates that at all. All it is is some specious polling source posting unverified numbers of people they count by gender. The problem is:

1. It doesn't include mail-ins.
2. It doesn't account for women being more free to vote early while more men are working so hold off until election day.
3. It assumes that every woman voting goes toward Harris, it does not.
4. It doesn't account for the fact that democrats don't know what a woman is, so likely made a lot of mistakes.

Non sequitur: how can republicans be DOMINATING in voting, yet Harris have a lopsided lead?

Republicans are not dominating early voting. And a lot of Republican women are voting for Harris.

Nothing about this shows Republican "dominance". --

Early Voting and Mail-In Ballots by State 2024 Results

View the results for mail-in and early in-person ballots in your state for the 2024 general elections

www.nbcnews.com

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

Having dug into the details of dozens of these suspicious Dem polls I'll assume this one way oversampled Democrats like the rest of them.

This isn't polling data, Kleetus.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

But can we really be so sure that there isn't also a reciprocal crossover of men who normally vote Democrat who might be lured to Donald's side? Or, perhaps, a drop off in participation among men who normally support Democrats? The left has equally been alarmed in recent weeks about black men supporting Harris, for example.

If this is true, then men should be voting more. Women should not be winning the early vote 55% to 45%.

This is bad news for Trump, any way that you try to cut it.

 

[Missouri_Mike]

This evidence-free whining won't help you. Or Nate Silver.

The post I replied to claimed Silver was all aboard the Camel train. Are you too stupid to understand what the man actually said?

 

[Rawley]

No luck is needed. Women are voting in massive numbers compared to men and Trump is going to lose by a substantial margin.

And half of them are pro-life. Sucks for your death cult.

 

[Dr. Phosphorous]

And half of them are pro-life. Sucks for your death cult.

Sure they are, gomer....as they proved in those votes in red Kansas and red Ohio in 2022.

Not even your imbecile ass believes that bullshit.

 

[Rawley]

Sure they are, gomer....as they proved in those votes in red Kansas and red Ohio in 2022.

Not even your imbecile ass believes that bullshit.

You have a blessed life. OK?

 

[JohnDB]

Republicans vote on Election day itself. There has been increased republican turnout for early voting this election...but we shall see what comes.
However....

40-39% Democrat to Republican in Early voting numbers with 27% of the vote in so far. (Note that 21% is unknown until full reporting is complete)

Meaning that this is likely going to be a blowout for Republicans.

 

[JohnDB]

 

[JohnDB]