JimBowie1958
Old Fogey
- Sep 25, 2011
- 63,590
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Let's say that the vote for Trump and Biden is too close to call.
If 50% of Biden's supporters are mailing in their votes, but only 10% of Trumps are, then for Biden to break even his early voters need to outnumber Trumps 5 to 1.
But that is not the case. Biden has only a 2 to 1 advantage on early votes (assuming people vote their party line).
On top of that, Independents are early voting as well, and they have historically supported Trump at 2:1 ratios.
This is stacking up to what amounts to a Trump landslide.
If 50% of Biden's supporters are mailing in their votes, but only 10% of Trumps are, then for Biden to break even his early voters need to outnumber Trumps 5 to 1.
But that is not the case. Biden has only a 2 to 1 advantage on early votes (assuming people vote their party line).
On top of that, Independents are early voting as well, and they have historically supported Trump at 2:1 ratios.
This is stacking up to what amounts to a Trump landslide.