The dollar is not crashing, but as I earlier said, and forex traders and leading economists have been predicting, it is declining and will likely continue to slowly decline over the next year or so. Why is this bad? Declining against what? A lot of panicky and self-contradictory arguments here.
The Chinese are now willing to let the RMB rise even more, as their economy is more balanced and more dependent on domestic Chinese growth than before. The decoupling threats of the Trump administration have made them much more determined to lesson dependence on the dollar and the American market, and U.S investment is no longer important to them. A higher value of the RMB and other currencies to the dollar is not terrible — it is probably the only realistic way to make American labor and commodities more competitive in the medium to long term. It is also necessary for long-term world financial stability.
Yes the falling dollar is not the worst thing in a healthy economic market system. . . yet.
Personally outside the current dxy issue. I am more concerned about how the US debt is becoming more worthless paper iuo's in a slow stagnating economy
I quit buying into Treasury bonds six months ago. I would not buy the debt iou's today unless it pays over 3 percent at 10 years. Otherwise why bother when I see graphs that have diverted insanely and all I hear from the countries economic and market data over the past two years is "never seen before" and old lawswritten wto keep things in check are being erased by desperation and greed. (Banks required zero reserves , fed buying stocks) etc.
This is not a predictable market and the dxy does not mean what it used to.
I would rather see the dxy hold stable but right now what ever is going on it seems to be the most rapid changing factor.
Easy debt as we have seen can not continue forever and I would say now not for long.
As we learned in 2008 I now think we are reaching a point where trying to create growth with easy debt is reacing its end. It been exausted as far as the ability to pay it back. Only this time its not homeowner debt but buisness debt (clo's) and how long can that debt be refimanced with lower rates before you run out of borrowers who either want it or can afford it. The so called pandemic helped even more creation of easy bad debt by small businesses to help them make it over the hill but like the unemployed whom are running out of benefits and therefore spending money. That bill for others will soon be coming due.
I refuse to blame this on any president or tje virus. Its been building up in continuation for far to long. Since 2010 at least. But rather for a future direction reference. I look at zero bank reserves. Easing restrictions meant to keep things in check like those on the fed. And the falling dxy as symptoms of the things to come.
Right now the dxy is telling us something else is going to change. I would have a better feeling about it. But with the economy in this state. Debt being at near maxed out without the economy to support it. And the relalease of laws that were written to stop problems. I think its coming amd the dxy is trying to tell us something else is right around the corner. I also think that US debt being not wanted may be coming soon. We may not be soon able to find legitimate buyers of US debt in which case no stimulus and no bailouts. The fed may not be able to raise i terest rates at all without collapsing the system. And we may be faced with falling or stagmant asset prices. It may soumd doom and gloom and feel free to call it that. But one cant dismiss the never seen before policies. The erasing of market restrictions which had purposes. And how many times people have said "the market does not make sense" and "this data and chart have never before in history have looked like this"
What the dxy used to mean can not be trusted at this moment. I think its not telling us we will be more productive at exports. And it is diving. I think its telling us something else is just aroumd the corner