320 Years of History
Gold Member
Looking at the field of Republican candidates, it seems as though Mr. Trump wins in Iowa for two reasons:
Though not the specific topic here, I suspect a similar effect will affect the Democratic primary in Iowa. With his higher proportion of younger voters, Mr. Sanders may likely win Iowa.
- Mr. Cruz and several other candidates draw evangelicals and evangelicals strike me as folks who will stand their ground on "a thing" no matter whether doing so makes any damn sense. Thus the ones who favor, say Dr. Carson, will probably caucus/vote for Dr. Carson, even though he hasn't "a snowball's chance in hell" of actually winning the nomination.
- The weather. Weather reports are predicting a blizzard in Iowa tomorrow. Such weather events reduce overall turnout, but I suspect a blizzard will have the greatest "stay home" impact on older (middle aged and "young-elderly" voters. Those voters are the ones who favor Mr. Cruz, so he has the most to lose, IMO, from the impending bad weather.
- Young voters, I think, will more likely "take their chances" with the weather.
- Older voters, I think, will more likely refuse to risk the other priorities in their lives -- kids, personal safety, etc. -- when they can avoid doing so by just not going to caucus. (Remember, caucusing takes a long time; it's not remotely as simple "go, flip a switch and leave.")
Though not the specific topic here, I suspect a similar effect will affect the Democratic primary in Iowa. With his higher proportion of younger voters, Mr. Sanders may likely win Iowa.