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CDZ Does Mr. Trump win Iowa because evangelicals have multiple choices even if Mr. Trump isn't the one?

320 Years of History

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Looking at the field of Republican candidates, it seems as though Mr. Trump wins in Iowa for two reasons:
  • Mr. Cruz and several other candidates draw evangelicals and evangelicals strike me as folks who will stand their ground on "a thing" no matter whether doing so makes any damn sense. Thus the ones who favor, say Dr. Carson, will probably caucus/vote for Dr. Carson, even though he hasn't "a snowball's chance in hell" of actually winning the nomination.
  • The weather. Weather reports are predicting a blizzard in Iowa tomorrow. Such weather events reduce overall turnout, but I suspect a blizzard will have the greatest "stay home" impact on older (middle aged and "young-elderly" voters. Those voters are the ones who favor Mr. Cruz, so he has the most to lose, IMO, from the impending bad weather.
    • Young voters, I think, will more likely "take their chances" with the weather.
    • Older voters, I think, will more likely refuse to risk the other priorities in their lives -- kids, personal safety, etc. -- when they can avoid doing so by just not going to caucus. (Remember, caucusing takes a long time; it's not remotely as simple "go, flip a switch and leave.")

Though not the specific topic here, I suspect a similar effect will affect the Democratic primary in Iowa. With his higher proportion of younger voters, Mr. Sanders may likely win Iowa.
 

Elvis Obama

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We saw. Trump is a looosah! Hillary too, maybe. New Hampshire is solid Bernie territory, and if she doesn't win Iowa cleanly, it's a bad start to the voting for her. She's already lost a clean win. She's already seen a huge momentum shift in a state she had a very large lead in. If she get the delegates, she can just shrug it off, but what looms ahead? The youth vote in Iowa was a killer for Hillary. They went for the Bern, overwhelmingly. Sound a bit like '08 to me.

Trump losing Iowa? I don't see it as a sign of a big change. Rubio was the big winner, imo, not Cruz or Trump. He was right there with them, losing to the Donald by a narrow margin. A sign of an establishment candidate coalescing the serious voters, now that the voting has actually begun? Then people like Huckabee will start to drop out. Rubio's gain, it looks to be.
 

FA_Q2

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What makes Rubio 'establishment?'
Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
 

Elvis Obama

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What makes Rubio 'establishment?'
Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.
 
OP
320 Years of History

320 Years of History

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What makes Rubio 'establishment?'
Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.

I just want to be sure I understand your remarks above.
  • What exactly is the "clubhouse" in your metaphor?
  • When you write "clubhouse boy," are you likening Mr. Rubio to being an employee of "the club" or a dues paying member?
 

Elvis Obama

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What makes Rubio 'establishment?'
Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.

I just want to be sure I understand your remarks above.
  • What exactly is the "clubhouse" in your metaphor?
  • When you write "clubhouse boy," are you likening Mr. Rubio to being an employee of "the club" or a dues paying member?
Political organizations. It's not my metaphor, it's a commonly used term. Perhaps more so in NYC than elsewhere.

The degree of obligation individuals have to organizations is speculative, but it's always based or reciprocal benefit. Is Bernie a clubhouse boy? Nope. Hillary? Sure.

That's what people are looking for this cycle, right? Someone who has no strings, no encumbrances.
 

FA_Q2

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What makes Rubio 'establishment?'
Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.

I just want to be sure I understand your remarks above.
  • What exactly is the "clubhouse" in your metaphor?
  • When you write "clubhouse boy," are you likening Mr. Rubio to being an employee of "the club" or a dues paying member?
Political organizations. It's not my metaphor, it's a commonly used term. Perhaps more so in NYC than elsewhere.

The degree of obligation individuals have to organizations is speculative, but it's always based or reciprocal benefit. Is Bernie a clubhouse boy? Nope. Hillary? Sure.

That's what people are looking for this cycle, right? Someone who has no strings, no encumbrances.
And Rubio is the guy that ran against the clubhouse boy in his district as a tea party upstart and took him out. Suddenly now he is one of them?

No, anyone that is not Trump or Cruiz is labeled the 'establishment' candidate. It is meaningless in that context.
 

Elvis Obama

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Reince Preibus likes him.
Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.

I just want to be sure I understand your remarks above.
  • What exactly is the "clubhouse" in your metaphor?
  • When you write "clubhouse boy," are you likening Mr. Rubio to being an employee of "the club" or a dues paying member?
Political organizations. It's not my metaphor, it's a commonly used term. Perhaps more so in NYC than elsewhere.

The degree of obligation individuals have to organizations is speculative, but it's always based or reciprocal benefit. Is Bernie a clubhouse boy? Nope. Hillary? Sure.

That's what people are looking for this cycle, right? Someone who has no strings, no encumbrances.
And Rubio is the guy that ran against the clubhouse boy in his district as a tea party upstart and took him out. Suddenly now he is one of them?

No, anyone that is not Trump or Cruiz is labeled the 'establishment' candidate. It is meaningless in that context.
No one is an outsider. It's a meaningless concept. When the government is for sale, when laws are written by industry lobbyists, how can a billionaire be an outsider?

What the pundits are talking about with the term establishment is a candidate that the Republicans, specifically, can claim is "their boy". They can't claim it with Trump or Cruz. They can with Rubio.
 

FA_Q2

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Essentially you are stating that anyone that wins is an 'establishment' candidate. The GOP is going to 'like' anyone that wins and goes into the main election.

The GOP 'likes' Rubio now because the establishment candidates lost and lost big time. Now they see Rubio as the best chance to win the general and they are right. That, however, does not make him establishment.
An establishment candidate is a clubhouse boy. Trump isn't. Carson and Fiorina aren't. Cruz isn't either. He can play the outsider because he is universally loathed. I cannot say I understand how that translates to support, but he has some support, clearly. Rubio is a clubhouse boy. He came up through the Florida Republican machine. He is a partly owned subsidiary of the Republican party. If he wins it's a party win, if not it's an insurgent win and the Republicans will be seen by some as no longer controlling their own party.

Iowa means very little. I have no idea how this will play out. I find it striking that Rubio came a very close third to Trump. Those three pretty much split the vote evenly. It's real now. Votes are in. Personally, I feel like Alice falling down the rabbit hole. Surreal stuff.

I just want to be sure I understand your remarks above.
  • What exactly is the "clubhouse" in your metaphor?
  • When you write "clubhouse boy," are you likening Mr. Rubio to being an employee of "the club" or a dues paying member?
Political organizations. It's not my metaphor, it's a commonly used term. Perhaps more so in NYC than elsewhere.

The degree of obligation individuals have to organizations is speculative, but it's always based or reciprocal benefit. Is Bernie a clubhouse boy? Nope. Hillary? Sure.

That's what people are looking for this cycle, right? Someone who has no strings, no encumbrances.
And Rubio is the guy that ran against the clubhouse boy in his district as a tea party upstart and took him out. Suddenly now he is one of them?

No, anyone that is not Trump or Cruiz is labeled the 'establishment' candidate. It is meaningless in that context.
No one is an outsider. It's a meaningless concept. When the government is for sale, when laws are written by industry lobbyists, how can a billionaire be an outsider?

What the pundits are talking about with the term establishment is a candidate that the Republicans, specifically, can claim is "their boy". They can't claim it with Trump or Cruz. They can with Rubio.
Whatever. They are going to claim that whoever wins. You have made the term 'establishment' meaningless to the point that you can apply it to anyone.

Bernie Sanders is establishment too. Why not.
 

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