CDZ Does it Matter?

[william the wie]

The main economic threats to the US are from outside its borders.

China is burning through its foreign reserves as are countries that are net exporters of oil.

The battles over ME oil fields has created a refugee crisis in the EU that is at least partially fracturing it.

Emerging markets are selling less stuff to China and India is about 36 months from having the infrastructure to pick up the slack.

The US is producing enough natural gas and building enough LNG plants to flood world energy markets so $30-60/bbl will be the price range as far as the eye can see.

All of the above will exert extreme deflationary pressure worldwide and those in debt will become impoverished even further.

My question is will the next president get a pass on these problems? Does it matter where the malfunction is or does the scapegoat in chief see the opposition take over? My guess is that the wheels come off in 6-18 months, in other words a slim chance of shifting of the probable winner and a near certainty of blowing up the presidency of whoever gets elected.

 

[Crixus]

Sounds about right.

 

[william the wie]

Yeah but what confuses me is I am basically predicting the past will continue.

India can and will take the place of China but the needed infrastructure such as high speed rail is not expected to be in phase one operation until March 2019. Similar dates exist for road construction, electrical networks, fiber optic networks, water, sewer and similar projects. An August 2015-March 2019 lag in World GDP and similar lags for Brazil and then Nigeria to become the global driver of growth will cause ever shorter growth cycles because the basic infrastructure of roads and rails takes about the same amount of time as it did 40 years ago when Japan started this modern cycle.

 

[jwoodie]

The main economic threats to the US are from outside its borders.

China is burning through its foreign reserves as are countries that are net exporters of oil.

The battles over ME oil fields has created a refugee crisis in the EU that is at least partially fracturing it.

Emerging markets are selling less stuff to China and India is about 36 months from having the infrastructure to pick up the slack.

The US is producing enough natural gas and building enough LNG plants to flood world energy markets so $30-60/bbl will be the price range as far as the eye can see.

All of the above will exert extreme deflationary pressure worldwide and those in debt will become impoverished even further.

My question is will the next president get a pass on these problems? Does it matter where the malfunction is or does the scapegoat in chief see the opposition take over? My guess is that the wheels come off in 6-18 months, in other words a slim chance of shifting of the probable winner and a near certainty of blowing up the presidency of whoever gets elected.

Explain?

 

[william the wie]

The main economic threats to the US are from outside its borders.

China is burning through its foreign reserves as are countries that are net exporters of oil.

The battles over ME oil fields has created a refugee crisis in the EU that is at least partially fracturing it.

Emerging markets are selling less stuff to China and India is about 36 months from having the infrastructure to pick up the slack.

The US is producing enough natural gas and building enough LNG plants to flood world energy markets so $30-60/bbl will be the price range as far as the eye can see.

All of the above will exert extreme deflationary pressure worldwide and those in debt will become impoverished even further.

My question is will the next president get a pass on these problems? Does it matter where the malfunction is or does the scapegoat in chief see the opposition take over? My guess is that the wheels come off in 6-18 months, in other words a slim chance of shifting of the probable winner and a near certainty of blowing up the presidency of whoever gets elected.

Explain?

In simple terms China has acted as the main engine of world economic growth since the late 80s. That came to a more or less dead stop last year as China's infrastructure gap was filled. The massi quantities of steel and concrete to do that needed for that is no longer needed in China and India is still figuring out how to fill its own gap. Until India works that out downsizing has taken off worldwide.

So far the effects on the US have been minimal because we were getting most of the world's capital flight. But as new and existing capital controls tighten up around the world that happy circumstance will vanish, probably next year. India should not be a significant driver of world economic growth for 5-7 years.

What I'm asking is will this kind of poor performance sink the next president? I say yes because even external causes of a US downturn are still blamed on the president. Do you have a different opinion?

 

[Militants]

Cruz will market with China. Teds next election are 2020 or 2024. Next challenger with Jeb and Rubio and maybe Kasich if John not go over to Socialism how are he's 70 precents winner chance. Only 30 precents in Republican Ted and Jeb are stronger than John. I'm hopefully over Jeb in 2020 if Trump disapear in 2016. Or wait to 2024 but Richard Gomez are bigger in 2024 and John Kasich if he go over to Socialism.