Could Ukraine take back Crimea?

[toomuchtime_]

Where did you hear that?

Russia couldn't resupply the west bank of the river because Ukraine was consistently destroying pontoon bridges; that's no longer a concern.

There would appear to be two possible futures at this point:

Ukraine continues driving eastward towards Crimea.

Russia pushes westward toward Odessa.

What's your expectation?

Russia retreated from Kyiv because Ukrainian attacks on its supply lines left front line troops short of fuel, ammo and food. Russia retreated from Kharkiv because Ukrainian precision strikes with Hamars 40 miles behind Russian lines disrupted resupply efforts and left Russian front-line troops short on fuel, ammo and food. The Russians couldn't resupply their troops in Kherson because the AFU was systematically destroying their supply depots and command and controlled centers with precision rockets 40 miles behind the Russian front lines with HIMARS.

Now Russsian forces that managed to escape from Kherson are already under attack from AFU artillery and from Ukrainian special forces and partisans from the rear, and "The head of the Russian military-civil administration of the occupied town of Nova Kakhovka, in the Kherson region, has ordered the immediate evacuation of the population and the authorities in view of the possible arrival of the Ukrainian military in this town, on the eastern bank of the Dnieper river, provided that they manage to cross a bridge badly damaged by the fighting."

Russia orders evacuation of Nova Kakhovka in view of possible Ukrainian breakthrough attempt across the Dnieper

Russia is bombing Odessa but Russian troops are making no progress moving toward Odessa.

There can be no rational expectation of a Russian victory.

 

[Litwin]

 

[toomuchtime_]

You and I are getting our information from entirely different sources.
I've heard it's Russia that has been destroying Ukraine's ammo and fuel dumps over the last nine months, and given the advantage Russians have with airpower and artillery, I find it hard to believe your version.

Which side will be without electricity and heat this winter?

The Russians have certainly tried to destroy Ukrainian supply depots but the steady advance of the AFU against the Russian army tells us the Russians haven't been very successful at it.

Ukrainian civilians will be greatly inconvenienced by the attacks on the power grids but this will do nothing to slow down the AFU.

 

[Litwin]

The Russians have certainly tried to destroy Ukrainian supply depots but the steady advance of the AFU against the Russian army tells us the Russians haven't been very successful at it.

Ukrainian civilians will be greatly inconvenienced by the attacks on the power grids but this will do nothing to slow down the AFU.

 

[shoshi]

If Russia don’t have Kherson then they can’t get to Odessa. It would be devastating if they could because it would leave Ukraine without access to the sea.

 

[georgephillip]

Russia retreated from Kyiv because Ukrainian attacks on its supply lines left front line troops short of fuel, ammo and food. Russia retreated from Kharkiv because Ukrainian precision strikes with Hamars 40 miles behind Russian lines disrupted resupply efforts and left Russian front-line troops short on fuel, ammo and food.

Russia retreated from Kiev because it was a fixing operation with only 40,000 troops designed to pin down Ukrainian forces that could have been used to reinforce Donbass. During this time Russia destroyed fuel and ammo dumps which further complicated Ukraine's donbass offensive.

Kharkiv was "defended" by a few thousand lightly armed troops guarding largely useless territory. Ukraine lost between 5000 and 10,000 troops for that pyrrhic victory.

Look at the map.
A year ago Russia controlled 0% of Ukrainian real estate.
Today it controls 20%.

 

[ESay]

Look at the map.
A year ago Russia controlled 0% of Ukrainian real estate.
Today it controls 20%

0%? They controlled Crimea and so called Donbas republics.

 

[para bellum]

0%? They controlled Crimea and so called Donbas republics.

Which if I recall is about 7% of Ukraine.

The 20% figure was before the AFU counter offensives, so I think it's closer to 15% now.

Ukraine has taken back about half of the territory Russia occupied at the high point, around end of March.

 

[georgephillip]

0%? They controlled Crimea and so called Donbas republics.

Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?.
Crimea was Russian since 1783.
In 1954 the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In 2014 that mistake was corrected.

Crimea Votes in Favor of Union With Russia

 

[badger2]

Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?.
Crimea was Russian since 1783.
In 1954 the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In 2014 that mistake was corrected.

Crimea Votes in Favor of Union With Russia

And the coming light drones, made in Russia, will defend the current borders, including the one at Kherson. That is how the nazis were defeated: Russians knew their tank would last about 15 minutes, so they built many of them. Meanwhile, the Germans bickered twixt themselves over tank details in the factory.

 

[ESay]

Why Did Russia Give Away Crimea Sixty Years Ago?.
Crimea was Russian since 1783.
In 1954 the Soviet government transferred Crimea from the Russian Soviet Federation of Socialist Republics to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
In 2014 that mistake was corrected.

Crimea Votes in Favor of Union With Russia

And? Saying that somehow disapproves that your claim about 0% wasn't bullshit?

 

[georgephillip]

And the coming light drones, made in Russia, will defend the current borders, including the one at Kherson. That is how the nazis were defeated: Russians knew their tank would last about 15 minutes, so they built many of them. Meanwhile, the Germans bickered twixt themselves over tank details in the factory.

Ukraine's Nazis have NATO backing which, in the short term, may extend their control over Ukraine's borders; imho, over the long term rising European anger over US sanctions may destroy NATO and the EU long before western capitalists effect regime change in Moscow:

"Since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, NATO has substantially increased its defense posture on the alliance’s eastern flank: it established four multinational battle groups in Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland, and it expanded its air-policing capabilities in the Baltic states and Eastern Europe to intercept Russian aircraft breaching the airspace of member states.

"Led by the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Germany, these units back up the idea that an attack on any NATO ally would be considered an attack on the whole alliance.

"Each unit also receives contributions from other NATO members.

"Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it has been a 'partner country' since 2008 – the year it applied for a Membership Action Plan.

"That means that it may be allowed to join the alliance in the future. Russia wants assurances from Western powers that this will never happen."

Measuring NATO Support For Ukraine

 

[zaangalewa]

Could Ukraine take back Crimea?​

The better question is: Should the Ukraine take back the Crimea peninsula? I would say "No". I would say "Russia should pay for". Verbally "pay for" not ideologically.

 

[georgephillip]

And? Saying that somehow disapproves that your claim about 0% wasn't bullshit?

Russia occupies a far greater percentage of Ukraine than it did this time last year; it will occupy even more this time next year.

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

 

[alexa]

How many by Ukrainian Nazis?

Yes, Who stopped Zelensky's peace deal with Russia? We are led to believe it was Boris with the US in agreement but that was not what I heard first. I heard that Zelensky went to the front line and told them it was time to stop fighting., The Azov's response to that was that they most certainly would not do that. They told him if they wanted they could just click their fingers and have tens of thousands more people there. They threatened his life and said there would be no peace deal until they took back everything Russia had taken from them. So I have been wondering since how could there have been two different occasions when Zelensky was forced to give up a peace deal, one of them seemingly due to Boris and another Azov/Right Centre. I suspect the Boris US one was made up to cover up who was really responsible.

I doubt it was Boris. Sure he was desperate for something to keep him in power but he can manage easily without that and I just don't see him threatening Zelensky which that tale said. The UK and US were clearly in complete agreement at that time but the people who destroyed the possibility of a deal with Russia were the Azov and Right Sector. They are the people responsible for the hundreds of thousands Ukranian's and Russian's killed. They are responsible for the destruction of their country which the EU is going to have to pay to be rebuilt probably causing its destruction so you can stop worrying ESay about fighting a war to join the EU, your war is destroying the people you claimed to want to be a part of.

Russia was right. Regardless of how many of them there are, the people who rule Ukraine are the neo Nazis.

 

[ESay]

Russia occupies a far greater percentage of Ukraine than it did this time last year; it will occupy even more this time next year.

Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

Yes, it does now indeed. But at the same time, inconvenient truth for you is that it occupies far lesser percentage of the territory it did in March. Your guys are in retreat now.

 

[krichton]

Where will Ukraine get the manpower to invade Crimea?

"About 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed and wounded since the invasion of Ukraine, and Kyiv’s armed forces 'probably' suffered a similar level of casualties, the top US general says."

100,000 Russian military casualties in Ukraine: US general

How were they able to take back so much territory and so quickly if they're suffering casualties at that rate? The reason why Russia is retreating in every direction is because they're losing 100k men. Mostly because of horrible logistics, bad command structure and badly trained conscripts. Ukraine is a NATO trained army with NATO weapons bolstering their stock of soviet era military equipment and modern Russian arms, generously donated by Kremlin. If Ukraine were losing 100k men their entire military would be at a standstill right now.

Milley wants Ukraine to negotiate, which is probably the motive for that statement. He has no idea what Ukraine's losses are, and he's the only one actually saying this.

 

[krichton]

How did the Russians manage to occupy 20% of Ukraine by using only 1/5 of their military ground force?

Any thoughts on how Ukraine will survive the winter without fuel and electricity?

Zelensky was considered a puppet???

I wonder how Russia's army will survive the winter without food, heat or proper winter gear. Oh right, they're probably not.

 

[georgephillip]

I wonder how Russia's army will survive the winter without food, heat or proper winter gear. Oh right, they're probably not.

Russia's army is the one which will have food, heat, electricity and winter gear; Ukraine won't.

 

[georgephillip]

Yes, it does now indeed. But at the same time, inconvenient truth for you is that it occupies far lesser percentage of the territory it did in March. Your guys are in retreat now.

Not everywhere.

Russia's hope for Ukraine win revealed in battle for Bakhmut

"BAKHMUT, Ukraine -- Russian soldiers pummeling a city in eastern Ukraine with artillery are slowly edging closer in their attempt to seize Bakhmut, which has remained in Ukrainian hands during the eight-month war despite Moscow's goal of capturing the entire Donbas region bordering Russia..."

"Taking Bakhmut would rupture Ukraine's supply lines and open a route for Russian forces to press on toward Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, key Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk province."