CNN/ORC poll, 10 Sept. 2015: Clinton tanking, Biden leads Trump by +10

[Statistikhengst]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Will the demographic change be strong enough to stop the republicans from getting to 270 even with a weak candidate on the democratic side?

Them playing this cut, slash and whine crap might be enough to hold onto power, but it will be a lot closer then 2012.

 

[Two Thumbs]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

Hillary Says WH Knew About Private Email Account

don't worry, hilly has an ace up her sleeve

 

[Geaux4it]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

Hillary Says WH Knew About Private Email Account

don't worry, hilly has an ace up her sleeve

I don't think the voters are that in tune with her plight. We learned from the past 2 elections that in many cases, substance does not matter, its fear voters react too. I don't believe its the email scandal per say that is dragging on HC, but more just the passing of time

-Geaux

 

[pepperpot]

I know someone involved in the state dem chapter (VT) and they too think she is in serious trouble. They feel that Warren will not back her and that many voters want Biden to get in and pick Warren as VP. The story in the NYTimes the other day about "Plan B team" is accurate. Many statewide donors are concerned she just wont do it. Donors speak volumes at the local level and they are nervous.

 

[BIG YANK BAL 1976]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

Yaaaawwnn , who really cares about polls, when the election is 14 months away?? and the Democrats haven't even had any debates yet, LOL...

I keep hearing about Clinton tanking, yet she's beating the hell out of Sanders nationally by 15-20 points, and easily out raising him ..

Sanders at 76 is too old to get the nomination, and he's an I when was the last time an I won a national election, and Biden isn't even going to run..

 

[RedTeamTex]

So Stat, just out of curiousity, how much worse does it have to get for Hillary before you switch your signature picture? ;P

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Will the demographic change be strong enough to stop the republicans from getting to 270 even with a weak candidate on the democratic side?

Them playing this cut, slash and whine crap might be enough to hold onto power, but it will be a lot closer then 2012.

We need a President for all our infrastructure, not just the infrastructure for the special few

 

[CrusaderFrank]

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

 

[DarkFury]

If Biden gets in Hillary's numbers will be cut in half in a month. And Sanders will take more of hers as well. Her staff member pleading the 5th did not look good. And with two more about to be Deposed by Gowdy it could look worse.

Her chances of even making Iowa look worse every day. She will make it there but I think seeing her come away any higher then 5th overall {both sides} is a crack pipe dream.

 

[NLT]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

Check out my siggy scatty

 

[pepperpot]

Quite honestly, there are few democrats out there that truly had Hillary as their first choice. Most had the dream of Elizabeth Warren being the top candidate. Hillary just cant get the crowd enthused, her speeches are scripted and she cant talk from the heart. I have been to many Sanders rallies and he is passionate, there is a fire there. With Hillary she makes it seem like she is being forced to run. People pick up on it. There also have been 6 fairly high level staffers for Clinton switch to Sanders camp already in the 6 states in New England. They just don't see the fire in her belly. If Elizabeth Warren ever jumped in or endorsed a Biden or Sanders campaign most democrats would jump ship instantaneously.

 

[Zander]

But I thought hiLIARy was inevitable and was going to win the Presidency in a landslide with at least 400 Electoral votes? How could this happen?

 

[Zander]

 

[cereal_killer]

Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.

I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.

 

[Bassman007]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:

Dude the poll that you posted has Biden and Trump in a dead heat of 44 percent. Which means nothing since he is not running, yet.


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.

I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.

Uhm, 2 weeks of bad polling does not an election loss make.

I wrote it that way to make you think.

For 2.5 years STRAIGHT, Clinton was creaming the GOP and Righties screamed that polls were meaningless. But show her losing in one or two polls and suddenly, Righties are say "I told you".

LOL.

And if Biden does jump in and wins, then I am also quite satisfied. Anything to keep a fucked up Republican from undoing progress.

 

[Zander]

Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.

I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.

Uhm, 2 weeks of bad polling does not an election loss make.

I wrote it that way to make you think.

For 2.5 years STRAIGHT, Clinton was creaming the GOP and Righties screamed that polls were meaningless. But show her losing in one or two polls and suddenly, Righties are say "I told you".

LOL.

And if Biden does jump in and wins, then I am also quite satisfied. Anything to keep a fucked up Republican from undoing progress.

Backpedal of the year!!

 

[Two Thumbs]

This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:


CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:

930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0


Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5

Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3

Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.

In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.

Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.


In DEM nomination polling:

Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0

Margin: Clinton +10

That is also a severe drop in margin.


I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:

CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


FYI.

Hillary Says WH Knew About Private Email Account

don't worry, hilly has an ace up her sleeve

I don't think the voters are that in tune with her plight. We learned from the past 2 elections that in many cases, substance does not matter, its fear voters react too. I don't believe its the email scandal per say that is dragging on HC, but more just the passing of time

-Geaux

She's an unlikable twunt and the more people get to know her the more they understand why bill cheated on her

 

[imawhosure]

Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.

I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.

Uhm, 2 weeks of bad polling does not an election loss make.

I wrote it that way to make you think.

For 2.5 years STRAIGHT, Clinton was creaming the GOP and Righties screamed that polls were meaningless. But show her losing in one or two polls and suddenly, Righties are say "I told you".

LOL.

And if Biden does jump in and wins, then I am also quite satisfied. Anything to keep a fucked up Republican from undoing progress.

I know you love statistics, but a statistical point in time means nothing, until you look at what the statistics said before about the same thing.

All the Democrats want to talk about Trump. Put him down, kick him, smear him, and they are the nice people, the real dastardly ones are the establishment Republicans, lol. What the Democrats should be doing instead, is finding a viable candidate.

The easiest one for the Republicans to beat is Sanders, no doubt about it. Next is Hillary. Hardest is Biden. Why? Because Biden is not rich, he is a very good debater, and he is an every man. It would be kinda hard to throw or find massive dirt on Biden, Hillary, not so much. Biden is comfort for independents. Just wait till they bring up that Hillary tried to get Obamacare before there was Obamacare, when she was 1st lady; that will be all bad.

People of ALL political persuasions have a normal tendency NOT to want to make a familial political dynasty. I know this is one reason your statistics are screwed up when looking back at GWs election, but I digress. It is ONE reason GOPers reject Jeb to the tune of 47%. It is also why if most any GOP candidate but Jeb runs against Hillary, Hillary will lose. People will come out to vote who could care less either way, just to STOP another familial empire in the Whitehouse. (I know you doubt that, but I am willing to say it is true to the tune of 1 to 2%)

This is exactly why when I read the thread about how Democrats have 246 electoral votes right out of the box, I started to snicker to myself. Under normal conditions, I would be skeptical at the very least. But under THESE conditions, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. When you have a guy leading the GOP field talking about raising taxes and imposing tariffs, and the leader of the Democratic field led by someone who is under investigation for nearly everything; and who's biggest claim to fame is the Russian reset button, along with being the 1st lady at one time in her life. Then all I have to say is...............statistics mean very little until the ones that come out right before the election.

Wait till blue collar workers listen and hear that the republican wants to hose hedge fund managers, along with wanting to put tariffs on. That is worth 3 points by itself. Yes my friend, I always read your statistics when you post them, but in this election, at this time, they have never meant less for what will happen down the road.