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I think Clinton has screwed things up so bad Biden sees one of two things. 1, Going out of public life as VP and walking away. 2, Taking one for "the team". I,m not so sure he is willing to do the second. Why end your career on purpose as a loser when just sitting out a year history records you as a winner?Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:
CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:
930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5
Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3
Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.
In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.
Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.
In DEM nomination polling:
Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0
Margin: Clinton +10
That is also a severe drop in margin.
I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:
CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
FYI.
This is simply not the year of the wonk. It's the year of the wild card and BOTH Bernie AND Trump are proof of that.This is bad news for Clinton, who has lost considerable ground in just three weeks:
CNN/ORC, released 10.09.2015:
930 RV, MoE = +/-3.0
Clinton (D) 48 (51) / Trump (R) 48 (45), margin = TIE (Clinton +6)
Clinton (D) 47 (52) / Bush (R) 49 (43), margin = Bush +2 (Clinton +9)
Clinton (D) 46 / Carson (R) 51, margin = Carson +5
Biden (D) 52 / Bush (R) 44, margin = Biden +8
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Biden (D) 47 / Carson (R) 50, margin = Carson +3
Against Trump, that's a 6 point shift in margin from the previous CNN/ORC poll, released 19.08.2015. Against Bush, that's an 11 point shift, which is enormous. Carson was not polled last time around by CNN/ORC.
In this poll, Ben Carson does the best against both Democrats. Biden wins two of three matchups with big margins, one of them a landslide margin. It's a shame that this time around, CNN did not also pit Sanders, who is no. 2 in DEM nomination polling, against these three GOP candidates.
Although this is just one poll, as I very often write, this poll is really bad news for the Clinton camp. They need to get their act together. Wait and see what happens. At this point, anything can happen, but I suspect that the "Draft Biden" movement is really going to pick up steam this month. In no way is Clinton out of the race. 48%, 47% and 46% is still extremely competitive and both the race against Trump and Bush are statistical (and in the case of Clinton vs. Trump, a mathematical) tie(s). That being said, Clinton's rapid descent is very measurable and I stated a long time ago that when it comes to the numbers, I am brutally neutral. These are NOT the kind of numbers that the Clinton team, after being so dominant for 2.5 years, wants to see. This is bad, for Clinton and a strong warning sign for the Democrats.
In DEM nomination polling:
Clinton 37
Sanders 27
Biden 20
O'Malley 3
Webb 2
Chafee 0
Margin: Clinton +10
That is also a severe drop in margin.
I already created an individual thread for the GOP nomination polling:
CNN/ORC, Sept. 10, 2015: Trump 32 / Carson 19 / Bush 9, Trump +13 | US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum
FYI.
Nazi boy, you posted
Biden (D) 44 / Trump (R) 44, margin = Biden +10
Now, I know you suck at math, but that seems to be A TIE vote....
Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
Trump/CruzStatistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
I think you make a mistake. Trump supporters will be perfectly happy with Ben Carson, or Ted Cruz, and if worse comes to worse, begrudgingly for Carly, holding our noses!
certainly lining up that way...at least that's the way it is looking right now.TRUZ would make me soooo happy!
As a Democrat, me too.Trump/CruzStatistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
I think you make a mistake. Trump supporters will be perfectly happy with Ben Carson, or Ted Cruz, and if worse comes to worse, begrudgingly for Carly, holding our noses!
Trump/Carson
Cruz/Carson
All work for me.
Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
Statistikhengst you didn't see this coming? Party bullshit aside this is inevitable. I told you this a while ago. Biden is going to have to enter, there's no two ways about it. He's the only one that is going to save the election for Dems. Not saying he'll beat Trump but it will be one hell of a close election. Could go either way. Biden/Trump will be an epic election.
I will go on "record" as saying if Trump doesn't fuck everything up (and he's getting dangerously close to it) and doesn't win the Republican nomination, the Democrats/Biden will win the Presidency. Why? The majority of Trump supporters will NOT vote in the election dooming the Republican's.
Uhm, 2 weeks of bad polling does not an election loss make.
I wrote it that way to make you think.
For 2.5 years STRAIGHT, Clinton was creaming the GOP and Righties screamed that polls were meaningless. But show her losing in one or two polls and suddenly, Righties are say "I told you".
LOL.
And if Biden does jump in and wins, then I am also quite satisfied. Anything to keep a fucked up Republican from undoing progress.
I know you love statistics, but a statistical point in time means nothing, until you look at what the statistics said before about the same thing.
All the Democrats want to talk about Trump. Put him down, kick him, smear him, and they are the nice people, the real dastardly ones are the establishment Republicans, lol. What the Democrats should be doing instead, is finding a viable candidate.
The easiest one for the Republicans to beat is Sanders, no doubt about it. Next is Hillary. Hardest is Biden. Why? Because Biden is not rich, he is a very good debater, and he is an every man. It would be kinda hard to throw or find massive dirt on Biden, Hillary, not so much. Biden is comfort for independents. Just wait till they bring up that Hillary tried to get Obamacare before there was Obamacare, when she was 1st lady; that will be all bad.
People of ALL political persuasions have a normal tendency NOT to want to make a familial political dynasty. I know this is one reason your statistics are screwed up when looking back at GWs election, but I digress. It is ONE reason GOPers reject Jeb to the tune of 47%. It is also why if most any GOP candidate but Jeb runs against Hillary, Hillary will lose. People will come out to vote who could care less either way, just to STOP another familial empire in the Whitehouse. (I know you doubt that, but I am willing to say it is true to the tune of 1 to 2%)
This is exactly why when I read the thread about how Democrats have 246 electoral votes right out of the box, I started to snicker to myself. Under normal conditions, I would be skeptical at the very least. But under THESE conditions, nothing is out of the realm of possibility. When you have a guy leading the GOP field talking about raising taxes and imposing tariffs, and the leader of the Democratic field led by someone who is under investigation for nearly everything; and who's biggest claim to fame is the Russian reset button, along with being the 1st lady at one time in her life. Then all I have to say is...............statistics mean very little until the ones that come out right before the election.
Wait till blue collar workers listen and hear that the republican wants to hose hedge fund managers, along with wanting to put tariffs on. That is worth 3 points by itself. Yes my friend, I always read your statistics when you post them, but in this election, at this time, they have never meant less for what will happen down the road.
I don't think Biden is going to enter the race.
I heard him speak about it a week or so ago, and he sounded like a tired man. He's grieving for his son, and it didn't sound like his heart was in it.
I will remind all of you of one political reality............a candidate polls the strongest the day before they enter the election, they then go down, up, down, and all around! Biden is the best bet for Democrats, and he is really not that strong.
The loving nature with which Democrats look at Warren is kind of funny. She is almost the female version of Bernie Sanders, and I say that with all due respect to her. I actually believe that a Warren run would start out like Hillary, and end almost like Hillary. If you research Warren, you will know why. She has enough stuff in the closet to make her have questions, for which she has no good answer.
And another note.................I believe like many, that if the Republicans are able to push through another Republican, establishment, squish by using vast sums of money, and trickery at the convention; after he loses, which he surely will, the Republican party will fracture into 2 entities. Some will say that this leaves the Democrats in almost complete control of everything. That is true, but what you have now is the Democrats for large government, and the Democratic JV team called the Republican establishment, also for big government with BOTH, just wanting the levers of power to control said "big government."
After seeing the support that outsiders have, I have little doubt that in a national election, nobody would win enough electoral votes, IF the 3rd party was organized and funded, and they had the talent that the Republican side has that is not for big government. Either the Republican party is going to be brought back to where it is supposed to be; the loyal opposition, or it is going to have to face another entity who gives America a different choice besides just "big government." Only time will tell.
Will the demographic change be strong enough to stop the republicans from getting to 270 even with a weak candidate on the democratic side?
Them playing this cut, slash and whine crap might be enough to hold onto power, but it will be a lot closer then 2012.
But I thought hiLIARy was inevitable and was going to win the Presidency in a landslide with at least 400 Electoral votes? How could this happen?
Will the demographic change be strong enough to stop the republicans from getting to 270 even with a weak candidate on the democratic side?
Them playing this cut, slash and whine crap might be enough to hold onto power, but it will be a lot closer then 2012.
Donald has lost the female vote, decisively and the Latino vote decisively. He has left the GOP swinging in the wind. And he may have done it purposefully. But the RWers keep drinking the poison....
Insightful post.I will remind all of you of one political reality............a candidate polls the strongest the day before they enter the election, they then go down, up, down, and all around! Biden is the best bet for Democrats, and he is really not that strong.
The loving nature with which Democrats look at Warren is kind of funny. She is almost the female version of Bernie Sanders, and I say that with all due respect to her. I actually believe that a Warren run would start out like Hillary, and end almost like Hillary. If you research Warren, you will know why. She has enough stuff in the closet to make her have questions, for which she has no good answer.
And another note.................I believe like many, that if the Republicans are able to push through another Republican, establishment, squish by using vast sums of money, and trickery at the convention; after he loses, which he surely will, the Republican party will fracture into 2 entities. Some will say that this leaves the Democrats in almost complete control of everything. That is true, but what you have now is the Democrats for large government, and the Democratic JV team called the Republican establishment, also for big government with BOTH, just wanting the levers of power to control said "big government."
After seeing the support that outsiders have, I have little doubt that in a national election, nobody would win enough electoral votes, IF the 3rd party was organized and funded, and they had the talent that the Republican side has that is not for big government. Either the Republican party is going to be brought back to where it is supposed to be; the loyal opposition, or it is going to have to face another entity who gives America a different choice besides just "big government." Only time will tell.
