Climatologists Got It Wrong with El Niño

[Weatherman2020]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

 

[JakeStarkey]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

Yeah, explain it to us, please.

 

[francoHFW]

That's weather, not climate, dupe.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Weatherman2020 does not understand the difference.

The uneducated don't even know what climatologists do.
My statement stands.

No, it does not, and you can't even begin to show that it does. But you can try.

Do you know what this is and who created it?
Buy a clue.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The la Niña pattern has persisted for months.. We never had a true El Niño pattern with this last event.

 

[RollingThunder]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

The storm tracks have been tending to go more northward this year, so rainfall levels in large parts of the state are somewhat below normal for an El Niño year, even though they are higher than they were in the last four years....but you have been misled about the natural minor variations in this year's El Niño having any implications for the accuracy of climate science.....your "information" is mostly wrong, skewed or misleading.....your conclusions are crackpot nonsense....and you're trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.....

Southern California hasn't been that dry....and this article is about just one storm system back at the end of January.....

El Nino-driven storm blasts California, southwestern US with rain and snow
AccuWeather
By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 31, 2016
Southern California is facing flooding rain, isolated severe thunderstorms and low-elevation snow to end the weekend, which is common in a strong El Niño weather pattern.

A storm will strengthen as it moves over Southern California and sweep across the interior Southwest into Sunday night.

"While a blockbuster storm is not likely, enough rain will fall to cause minor flash and urban flooding issues and trigger a few mudslides in recent burn areas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Motorists should be prepared for slick conditions due to the rainy travel. Disruptions to outdoor activities are likely from San Diego to Los Angeles as well as much of the Inland Empire.

Rainfall between 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch are likely from Los Angeles to San Diego. However, the west- and southwest-facing mountainsides of Southern California may receive 1-3 inches of rain from the storm on Sunday.

Enough rain and wind can occur along with poor visibility to lead to airline delays at Los Angeles and San Diego.

"In addition to localized flash flooding and mudslides, there is concern for a few thunderstorms with damaging winds on Sunday in Southern California," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "There can even be an isolated tornado."

High winds will keep the waves high off the California coast into Monday.

This storm system will pull chillier air across the region. Temperatures will dip below average from Sunday into early February. Precipitation over the mountains and passes will transition from rain to snow.

"Snow levels will fall as low as 2,000 feet near Tejon Pass to 3,000 feet in the mountains east of San Diego," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said. "There could be a light coating in these lowest elevations with more substantial snow in the higher elevations."

"Up to a foot of snow is likely at elevations above 7,000 feet," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark said.

"In the wake of this storm, the storm track will pull northward again next week and may stay there through at least mid-February," Sosnowski said.

So far this winter, rainfall across much California has not been typical of a strong El Niño pattern.

Clark noted in his blog that rainfall during the current El Niño is well behind the pace of the 1997-98 El Niño.

However, there are still two to three months of winter left for significant storms to impact the Southwest.
*****

And the Sierra snowpack is not that low either, numbnuts....

MPR News
February 24, 2016,
We’ve often pointed out that not all El Nino events are created equal. The atmospheric effects in any given El Nino winter can vary depending on strength and distribution of warm water in the Pacific. Not to mention other still unknown unknowns about El Nino southern oscillation cycles.

Still it’s a bit surprising to some that California is not doing better with overall snowpack numbers in the Sierras. As of this week, California snowpack is running just 93 percent of average statewide. That’s better than previous years but disappointing considering the strength of El Nino this winter.

So...93% of average and still several months of possibly quite rainy weather to go before the summer dry season.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a centurys from now?

Your OP is denier cult drivel that has nothing to do with the scientific facts about human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes and disruptions. It is based only on your abject ignorance and your anti-science distrust of scientists, plus a few crackpot conspiracy theories. Your moldy old denier cult myth has been repeatedly debunked for decades by almost every scientific organization on Earth that has anything to do with climate science. Your ignorance of that fact only highlights your complete ignorance about science, and climate science in particular.

In the real world....

WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
IF SCIENTISTS CANT ACCURATELY PREDICT THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK OR THE WEEK AFTER, HOW CAN THEY PREDICT THE CLIMATE IN 10 OR 20 YEARS? GOOD QUESTION. THE ANSWER LIES IN APPLES AND ORANGES.
Popular Science
By Dr. Bill Chameidesu
March 20, 2009
Scientifically speaking, the difference between weather prediction and climate prediction is the difference between an "initial value problem" and a "boundary value problem." Let's see if I can explain in English.

While weather and climate both focus on temperature, wind, cloudiness, rain or snow, the way these properties are used is quite different. The National Center for Atmospheric Research defines the two like so:

"Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere."

"Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years."

When Time and Place Are Critical

When you want to know the weather, time and place are critical. You are interested in what is going to happen in the immediate future (not sometime in the next month or two) and in your vicinity (not 1000 miles away).

If the TV weather person announced it was going to rain somewhere in your state sometime next month, I suspect you'd find that prediction a little less than satisfactory. But the latter is essentially what a climate prediction is, and the methodology to arrive at it is fundamentally different from predicting the weather.

What Goes into Weather Predictions

Imagine you are a center fielder on a baseball team. The batter hits a fly ball your way and it's your job to catch it. To do so, you need to figure where in center field the ball is headed and when it's going to get there.

If you're a good outfielder, a crack computer in your brain gathers up essential data -- like the speed of the bat as it hits the ball, the sound of the impact, and the ball's initial direction -- and in a split second calculates the ball's trajectory.

But to do this well, it's essential that the input into your computer what scientists would call the initial values is complete and accurate. If the glare of the sun or stadium lights obscure your view of the ball's initial flight, your ability to accurately predict where the ball is going and when it will get there is impaired.

Predicting the weather is similarly dependent on the initial values you specify in the computer model used to make the prediction. These initial conditions include temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation rates everywhere in your model essentially everywhere in the atmosphere. The values for these parameters can't be made up; they must come from real data. Today these data come from the global meteorological network run by countries around the world and largely coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization. This network includes surface meteorological stations, balloon measurements, shipboard measurements, and space-borne platforms.

Despite its very impressive size, the network is limited; we can only make meteorological measurements in so many locations and these measurements are not perfectly accurate. Thus, the initial conditions input into our weather models are imperfect, and so our weather predictions are inaccurate -- and would be even if our understanding of the physics of the weather were perfect.

Because the effects of imperfect initial conditions on weather simulations tend to grow, the longer the weather model is run into the future, the less accurate the prediction. Predictions of the weather just a week or two in advance, let alone decades, become highly problematic.

What Goes into Climate Predictions

Less concerned with exact time and place, predicting climate focuses on spatially and temporally averaged conditions.
Unlike the earlier example of the outfielder who must know exactly where the ball is heading and when it will get there, climate prediction is more akin to predicting at the beginning of the game how many times a ball will be hit to center field sometime in the first three innings. Initial conditions like the speed of the bat or direction of the ball as it leaves the first batter's bat are not going to help very much. The critical factors are the speed and direction of the wind, the properties of the ball and the bat, the strength of the pitcher and the batters, and the dimensions of the field factors that scientists call boundary conditions.

So while predicting the weather depends critically on getting the initial state of the atmosphere right, predicting the climate does not. Which is not to say that climate prediction is easy. It's not.

Predicting climate accurately depends on getting a host of those boundary conditions correct, many of which relate to the atmosphere's energy. They include the amount and strength of sunlight reaching the Earth, the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, the movement of heat in the oceans, and the opacity of the atmosphere to terrestrial radiation as a result of greenhouse gases. And for this reason, getting long-term, accurate observations of, for example, the variations in the sun's output of energy over time is critical for understanding past climate change. Uncertainties in how the sun's output will change in the coming decades limits our ability to predict future climate with complete confidence. However, such decadal variations in the sun's output are irrelevant to predicting tomorrow's weather.

There are other fundamental differences between weather and climate predictions. Some of these relate to mechanisms. For example, accurate weather predictions require a good simulation of the processes that lead to precipitation from a cloud since whether or not it rains at a specific location on a specific day is relevant. For climate predictions, the specifics of the cloud-to-rain process are less important. Far more important is getting right the reflective properties of the cloud since these affect the planet's long-term energy budget. Again, both of these inputs present difficult but different challenges.

And that's why comparing the limitations of weather predictions with those of climate predictions is a little or a lot like comparing apples and oranges.

Bill Chameides
Dean, Duke University
Nicholas School of the Environment | www.TheGreenGrok.com

 

[Billy_Bob]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

The storm tracks have been tending to go more northward this year, so rainfall levels in large parts of the state are somewhat below normal for an El Niño year, even though they are higher than they were in the last four years....but you have been misled about the natural minor variations in this year's El Niño having any implications for the accuracy of climate science.....your "information" is mostly wrong, skewed or misleading.....your conclusions are crackpot nonsense....and you're trying to make a mountain out of a molehill.....

Southern California hasn't been that dry....and this article is about just one storm system back at the end of January.....

El Nino-driven storm blasts California, southwestern US with rain and snow
AccuWeather
By Brett Rathbun, AccuWeather.com Meteorologist
January 31, 2016
Southern California is facing flooding rain, isolated severe thunderstorms and low-elevation snow to end the weekend, which is common in a strong El Niño weather pattern.

A storm will strengthen as it moves over Southern California and sweep across the interior Southwest into Sunday night.

"While a blockbuster storm is not likely, enough rain will fall to cause minor flash and urban flooding issues and trigger a few mudslides in recent burn areas," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.

Motorists should be prepared for slick conditions due to the rainy travel. Disruptions to outdoor activities are likely from San Diego to Los Angeles as well as much of the Inland Empire.

Rainfall between 0.50 of an inch to 1 inch are likely from Los Angeles to San Diego. However, the west- and southwest-facing mountainsides of Southern California may receive 1-3 inches of rain from the storm on Sunday.

Enough rain and wind can occur along with poor visibility to lead to airline delays at Los Angeles and San Diego.

"In addition to localized flash flooding and mudslides, there is concern for a few thunderstorms with damaging winds on Sunday in Southern California," AccuWeather Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "There can even be an isolated tornado."

High winds will keep the waves high off the California coast into Monday.

This storm system will pull chillier air across the region. Temperatures will dip below average from Sunday into early February. Precipitation over the mountains and passes will transition from rain to snow.

"Snow levels will fall as low as 2,000 feet near Tejon Pass to 3,000 feet in the mountains east of San Diego," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Kristina Pydynowski said. "There could be a light coating in these lowest elevations with more substantial snow in the higher elevations."

"Up to a foot of snow is likely at elevations above 7,000 feet," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Ken Clark said.

"In the wake of this storm, the storm track will pull northward again next week and may stay there through at least mid-February," Sosnowski said.

So far this winter, rainfall across much California has not been typical of a strong El Niño pattern.

Clark noted in his blog that rainfall during the current El Niño is well behind the pace of the 1997-98 El Niño.

However, there are still two to three months of winter left for significant storms to impact the Southwest.
*****

And the Sierra snowpack is not that low either, numbnuts....

MPR News
February 24, 2016,
We’ve often pointed out that not all El Nino events are created equal. The atmospheric effects in any given El Nino winter can vary depending on strength and distribution of warm water in the Pacific. Not to mention other still unknown unknowns about El Nino southern oscillation cycles.

Still it’s a bit surprising to some that California is not doing better with overall snowpack numbers in the Sierras. As of this week, California snowpack is running just 93 percent of average statewide. That’s better than previous years but disappointing considering the strength of El Nino this winter.

So...93% of average and still several months of possibly quite rainy weather to go before the summer dry season.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a centurys from now?

Your OP is denier cult drivel that has nothing to do with the scientific facts about human caused global warming and its consequent climate changes and disruptions. It is based only on your abject ignorance and your anti-science distrust of scientists, plus a few crackpot conspiracy theories. Your moldy old denier cult myth has been repeatedly debunked for decades by almost every scientific organization on Earth that has anything to do with climate science. Your ignorance of that fact only highlights your complete ignorance about science, and climate science in particular.

In the real world....

WEATHER PREDICTION, CLIMATE PREDICTION. WHATS THE DIFF?
IF SCIENTISTS CANT ACCURATELY PREDICT THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK OR THE WEEK AFTER, HOW CAN THEY PREDICT THE CLIMATE IN 10 OR 20 YEARS? GOOD QUESTION. THE ANSWER LIES IN APPLES AND ORANGES.
Popular Science
By Dr. Bill Chameidesu
March 20, 2009
Scientifically speaking, the difference between weather prediction and climate prediction is the difference between an "initial value problem" and a "boundary value problem." Let's see if I can explain in English.

While weather and climate both focus on temperature, wind, cloudiness, rain or snow, the way these properties are used is quite different. The National Center for Atmospheric Research defines the two like so:

"Weather is the mix of events that happen each day in our atmosphere."

"Climate is the average weather pattern in a place over many years."

When Time and Place Are Critical

When you want to know the weather, time and place are critical. You are interested in what is going to happen in the immediate future (not sometime in the next month or two) and in your vicinity (not 1000 miles away).

If the TV weather person announced it was going to rain somewhere in your state sometime next month, I suspect you'd find that prediction a little less than satisfactory. But the latter is essentially what a climate prediction is, and the methodology to arrive at it is fundamentally different from predicting the weather.

What Goes into Weather Predictions

Imagine you are a center fielder on a baseball team. The batter hits a fly ball your way and it's your job to catch it. To do so, you need to figure where in center field the ball is headed and when it's going to get there.

If you're a good outfielder, a crack computer in your brain gathers up essential data -- like the speed of the bat as it hits the ball, the sound of the impact, and the ball's initial direction -- and in a split second calculates the ball's trajectory.

But to do this well, it's essential that the input into your computer what scientists would call the initial values is complete and accurate. If the glare of the sun or stadium lights obscure your view of the ball's initial flight, your ability to accurately predict where the ball is going and when it will get there is impaired.

Predicting the weather is similarly dependent on the initial values you specify in the computer model used to make the prediction. These initial conditions include temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation rates everywhere in your model essentially everywhere in the atmosphere. The values for these parameters can't be made up; they must come from real data. Today these data come from the global meteorological network run by countries around the world and largely coordinated by the World Meteorological Organization. This network includes surface meteorological stations, balloon measurements, shipboard measurements, and space-borne platforms.

Despite its very impressive size, the network is limited; we can only make meteorological measurements in so many locations and these measurements are not perfectly accurate. Thus, the initial conditions input into our weather models are imperfect, and so our weather predictions are inaccurate -- and would be even if our understanding of the physics of the weather were perfect.

Because the effects of imperfect initial conditions on weather simulations tend to grow, the longer the weather model is run into the future, the less accurate the prediction. Predictions of the weather just a week or two in advance, let alone decades, become highly problematic.

What Goes into Climate Predictions

Less concerned with exact time and place, predicting climate focuses on spatially and temporally averaged conditions.
Unlike the earlier example of the outfielder who must know exactly where the ball is heading and when it will get there, climate prediction is more akin to predicting at the beginning of the game how many times a ball will be hit to center field sometime in the first three innings. Initial conditions like the speed of the bat or direction of the ball as it leaves the first batter's bat are not going to help very much. The critical factors are the speed and direction of the wind, the properties of the ball and the bat, the strength of the pitcher and the batters, and the dimensions of the field factors that scientists call boundary conditions.

So while predicting the weather depends critically on getting the initial state of the atmosphere right, predicting the climate does not. Which is not to say that climate prediction is easy. It's not.

Predicting climate accurately depends on getting a host of those boundary conditions correct, many of which relate to the atmosphere's energy. They include the amount and strength of sunlight reaching the Earth, the reflectivity of the Earth's surface, the movement of heat in the oceans, and the opacity of the atmosphere to terrestrial radiation as a result of greenhouse gases. And for this reason, getting long-term, accurate observations of, for example, the variations in the sun's output of energy over time is critical for understanding past climate change. Uncertainties in how the sun's output will change in the coming decades limits our ability to predict future climate with complete confidence. However, such decadal variations in the sun's output are irrelevant to predicting tomorrow's weather.

There are other fundamental differences between weather and climate predictions. Some of these relate to mechanisms. For example, accurate weather predictions require a good simulation of the processes that lead to precipitation from a cloud since whether or not it rains at a specific location on a specific day is relevant. For climate predictions, the specifics of the cloud-to-rain process are less important. Far more important is getting right the reflective properties of the cloud since these affect the planet's long-term energy budget. Again, both of these inputs present difficult but different challenges.

And that's why comparing the limitations of weather predictions with those of climate predictions is a little or a lot like comparing apples and oranges.

Bill Chameides
Dean, Duke University
Nicholas School of the Environment | www.TheGreenGrok.com

You really dont know shit about climate, climate prediction, or weather..

WE have been in a La Niña pattern for 9 months..WHY? If this was really one of the strongest El Niño's why no shift? Why a blocking high?

 

[Crick]

The impacts of warmer oceans in the eastern pacific have been opposite of what the climate experts predicted. Instead of storm tracks being centered upon SoCal they have risen above the Pacific Northwest. The result has been extremely dry conditions for SoCal this winter and below average snowfall for the Sierras.

If they can't even get close to telling us the climate just a few months in advance, how can they justify telling us to change the economy for something they are predicting a century from now?

Show us such a prediction that is not simply a review of the effects of past el Nino events.

 

[Billy_Bob]

You really dont know shit about climate, climate prediction, or weather..

WE have been in a La Niña pattern for 9 months..WHY? If this was really one of the strongest El Niño's why no shift? Why a blocking high?

Man... you really live in your own little world, don't you Billy Boy...

OK Mr Peabody, post up the weather patterns for the last 365 days.. and you show me your El Niño patterns..

You wont find any!

Weatherman posted up precipitation pattern projections consistent with La Niña flow. He is right on the money...

 

[Crick]

This is our el Nino Billy Boy. Everything you're talking about are secondary and tertiary effects.

 

[Crick]

And if you want to claim that's a la Nina, I can get you the "I'm with stupid" t-shirt you'll need to wear at all times.

 

[Weatherman2020]

Just released from the Climate Prediction Center. For the uneducated, yes they are discussing precipitation.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This is our el Nino Billy Boy. Everything you're talking about are secondary and tertiary effects.

And if you want to claim that's a la Nina, I can get you the "I'm with stupid" t-shirt you'll need to wear at all times.

Pretty pictures which show ocean water circulation pattern, while we are discussing atmospheric circulation patterns that are influenced by them. You dont even have a grasp on what is being discussed...

 

[Billy_Bob]

Just released from the Climate Prediction Center. For the uneducated, yes they are discussing precipitation.

They got that one right... El Niño has been dead for over 8 months.. We've been in a La Niña pattern now for 10-11 months and now its setting up for a hard stay.. That blocking high they complained about (they think was creating THE Blob) is now reforming but with a low pressure circulation.

The next few months are going to get real interesting, possibly very cool to boot.

See the massive low in the Bering Sea..

Western U.S. Infrared, Enhancement 4 - NOAA GOES Geostationary Satellite Server

 

[Crick]

This is our el Nino Billy Boy. Everything you're talking about are secondary and tertiary effects.

And if you want to claim that's a la Nina, I can get you the "I'm with stupid" t-shirt you'll need to wear at all times.

Pretty pictures which show ocean water circulation pattern, while we are discussing atmospheric circulation patterns that are influenced by them. You dont even have a grasp on what is being discussed...

Then I suggest you stop making the egregious error of referring to such atmospheric patterns by el Nino and la Nina.

 

[Crick]

We're all talking about THIS:

El Niño/ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately theInternational Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

I haven't the faintest fuck of an idea what you think we're talking about.

 

[Billy_Bob]

We're all talking about THIS:

El Niño/ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately theInternational Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

I haven't the faintest fuck of an idea what you think we're talking about.

One more time for the fucking clueless moron... (any idiot can cut and paste a dictionary reference without having the slightest clue what is going on!)

We are discussing the ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS which are caused/influenced by the ocean circulations. The historical relevance and empirical evidence of changes and how they relate to today's predictions/projections.

Get a Clue!

 

[Weatherman2020]

View attachment 64955

View attachment 64956

The la Niña pattern has persisted for months.. We never had a true El Niño pattern with this last event.

The climate models completely missed it.

 

[Weatherman2020]

We're all talking about THIS:

El Niño/ɛl ˈniːnjoʊ/ (Spanish pronunciation: [el ˈniɲo]) is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO) and is associated with a band of warm ocean water that develops in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately theInternational Date Line and 120°W), including off the Pacific coast of South America. El Niño Southern Oscillation refers to the cycle of warm and cold temperatures, as measured by sea surface temperature, SST, of the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean. El Niño is accompanied by high air pressure in the western Pacific and low air pressure in the eastern Pacific. The cool phase of ENSO is called "La Niña" with SST in the eastern Pacific below average and air pressures high in the eastern and low in western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes of both temperatures and rainfall.[2][3] Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

I haven't the faintest fuck of an idea what you think we're talking about.

No, we are not. Go back and read Post #1 again S L O W L Y.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Looking at Global circulation patterns the dying El Niño has no atmospheric effect on circulation patterns. and has not for some time.