Okay, here's why I think Harris will win.
1) Democrats have a higher level of enthusiasm - 79% compared to 67% for Republicans.
2) Demcorats have a superior ground game. They've organize hundreds of field offices and tens of thousands of workers while Trump outsourced to Charlie Kirk and Elon Musk.
3) Harris has a higher favorability rating than Trump.
4) Trump's Nazi MSG Rally has alienated Hispanics and blacks and Muslims, key constituencies needed to win the rust belt.
5) Harris is easily leading in the popular vote. She is leading in MI and WI. This race - unfortunately, will come down to PA. And right now, she's leading in PA.
6) Trump has spent the last few weeks appealing to his base, instead of trying to win the middle. This will work against him
7) The Early voting numbers show that women are outvoting men by 55%- 45% or more. Women are upset about Dobbs, Trump's general misogyny, and the chance to finally put a woman in the White House is alluring.
Now, I know that you can't help yourself and you will come with all sorts of excuses why Trump didn't say that, or he didn't mean that, or others have said worse, or whatever excuses you guys have come up with for the last 9 years to rationalize supporting a person even you know is an awful human being.
But at the end of the day, America is better than Donald Trump.