CBO Scoring Must Be New New Math

[Contumacious]

The CBO Scoring must be based on New New Math - and Nancy Pelosi must be a psychic.

The problem is that as a mere mortal you can not understand esoteric procedures.



"As the Wall Street Journal summarized, the $25 billion figure was arrived by following a time-honored government accounting algorithm: Some accountant at the CBO threw a dart at the wall."

 

[EriktheRed]

Okay. When the CBO releases an analysis that you don't like, it's because the CBO is full of liberals.... you guys need to get a grip.

Like Stephen Colbert says, "Reality has a Liberal bias".


That's why we have Conservapedia.

 

[beowolfe]

Okay. When the CBO releases an analysis that you don't like, it's because the CBO is full of liberals.... you guys need to get a grip.

Like Stephen Colbert says, "Reality has a Liberal bias".


That's why we have Conservapedia.

 

[boedicca]

Wrong again TM.

Defense outlays have decreased as a percent of Federal spending:

Really? Is that with or without the Iraq war factored in? Remember, Bush Jr. did that.

Or, is it with the voodoo economics of Bush Sr.? Remember when he was president and moved the military and federal payday from 30 September to 1 October so that he could put the majority of the budget off till the next fiscal year and tout the savings to the American people?

Or, how's about that rampant military spending that Reagan tried to do when he was building his 500 ship Navy?


You're kinda stupid ain't ya?

The chart represents budget number w/o the Iraq and Afghanistan wars factored in. If looking at the 2009 budget (where the wars were actually placed in the DOD budget), you get an answer of about 30% for DOD. And that's with the Stimulus bill added into total expenditures. Remove the stimulus bill and you get a DOD budget of between 45-50% of total federal expenditures.

Please add in the unfunded committed liabilities for SS and Medicare.

Check out table 3.1 in this link:

http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals/


2009 Federal Outlays (budget and off budget) were 3.5T

Defense comprised $661B, slightly less than 19% of the total

Human Resources (which is mostly Social Security, Medicare, and Income Security (transfer payments) is $2.16T, or slightly over 61% of the total.

Entitlements are the biggest problem, bub - although the size of the government in total is completely out of hand, including defense.

 

[ABikerSailor]

I love it when people pull up charts and graphs.

Generally means they don't know shit about what they speak of don't it Bowing for Dick (bodicca)?

 

[Samson]

so it is bad, the bill saves money?

or it is bad if the dems say they are reducing their projected spending?

or the CBO is bad because they let the speaker of the house know the score of the bill before they let you know?

or the CBO is filled with lying liberals....even though it is the SAME people in the CBO that were scoring the republican bills when they were in the majority?

silly outrage boe!

Maybe the CBO is right....Let's give it the benefit of the doubt, despite the dubious role of government has as "Saving me Money" over the entire history of its existance.

I wonder, why, if the US Government was so very concerned about saving me money, why they don't allow me to simply pay them half the taxes they're gonna collect from me this year?

 

[CaféAuLait]

They are still going with the "Cadillac tax" however this does not take effect until 2018—long after Obama is out of office—how convenient!

And the mandate does not go into effect until 2015 that you purchase insurance,

But the new bill, compared to the Senate bill, raises the thresholds for plans that would be subject to the tax and delays its enactment by five years -- from 2013 to 2018.

Penalties for those who don't get coverage: Like the Senate bill, the reconciliation bill would impose a financial penalty on most Americans who don't buy health insurance.

Come 2015, individuals who choose not to buy insurance would pay the greater of $325 or up to 2% in income ($695 or up to 2.5% in income thereafter).

Read more here:

How Democrats will pay for health reform - Mar. 18, 2010

 

[Annie]

The report today from the CBO was 'preliminary', the 'final' will be release Saturday or Sunday. :rolleyeys: I'm guessing Sunday, probably after the vote.

So now we are getting some coverage from the MSM:

Links at site:

Patterico's Pontifications CBO Health Care Report: $138 Billion

...The Washington Post has an interesting chart comparing the Senate Bill with the Reconciliation Bill. According to the link, the CBO projects there are currently 54 million non-elderly uninsured Americans, and there will be 23 million uninsured under the Senate Bill and 22 million uninsured under the Reconciliation Bill. (I assume the report of 32 million covered by ObamaCare includes elderly and non-elderly Americans. Are the 22-23 million uninsured America’s illegal immigrants? Hopefully so. If not, the promise that everyone will have health insurance under ObamaCare is under the bus.)

In addition, under the CBO projections, the government will spend $65B more under the Reconciliation Bill than the Senate Bill to cover an extra 1 million Americans, resulting in an additional $20B in savings. Thus, the government will be paying an extra $65B to cover just 1 million more people, yet will only save an extra $20B. This tells me the more these programs cost and the more people they cover, the less efficient they become … so if there are cost overruns (and there will be) costs should go up even more.

SHORTER VERSION: How did the Democrats do it? A 10 year plan with $17B in costs in the first 4 years and $923B in the last 6...

 

[woodjack]

I guess this estimate was performed by the same people that told Obama that surgeons make $20,000 to $50,000 dollars per amputations from diabietes. And it seems that alot of people on this board buy this estimate as gods honest truth. Since when has any government program whether state or federal been within budget constraints, hasn't run way over the estimates? With reps or dems in charge it doesn't matter, politicians throw numbers out like fly fishers do in a stream and people always chomp on the bait.

 

[boedicca]

I love it when people pull up charts and graphs.

Generally means they don't know shit about what they speak of don't it Bowing for Dick (bodicca)?

Actually, it shows that you can't read them.

 

[boedicca]

I wonder, why, if the US Government was so very concerned about saving me money, why they don't allow me to simply pay them half the taxes they're gonna collect from me this year?

How about Deeming the Money paid and short paying the Gubmint?

 

[boedicca]

The report today from the CBO was 'preliminary', the 'final' will be release Saturday or Sunday. :rolleyeys: I'm guessing Sunday, probably after the vote.

Indeed. So much for the promise of transparency.

 

[Zona]

The CBO Scoring must be based on New New Math - and Nancy Pelosi must be a psychic.

Despite the fact that no score has been released, Pelosi says she loves the number - and one of her flying monkeys, Steny Hoyer, has been touting it as reducing the deficit over the next 10 years.

If the CBO process is truly independent, how is it that Pelosi has any information prior to the score being released? If our laws were applied fairly, Pelosi and Crew would be in the cells next to Bernie Madoff for cooking the books.

Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, the Number 2 House Democrat, said the economy would be stronger in the long run. The bill is estimated to reduce federal deficit by more than $130 billion over its first 10 years — and $1.2 trillion in the second decade, he said. Hoyer called it the biggest deficit reduction bill since the 1990s, when President Bill Clinton put the federal budget on a path to surplus.

Authoritative numbers from the Congressional Budget Office were expected later Thursday, but Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., was already pleased. "We loved their number," said Pelosi, who is privy to the estimates.

"I think the momentum is growing for this bill," said Hoyer. "The more and more people have looked at this bill...a greater number of people are becoming more comfortable."...

House Dems on track for vote on $940B health bill - Yahoo! News

This has to be the single most predictable thread ever. EVER.

 

[rdean]

Number one cause of bankruptcy - medical bills.

Number one cause of foreclosure - medical bills.

Emergency room, single visit - $1,000 or $1,500 if you are between 45 and 65 - paid for by taxpayers.

One night in the hospital - no tests, no extras - $4,700

Add all that up

multiply by the number of Americans without health insurance

multiply by 10 years

and that equals the cost of doing nothing.

Of course, there is the Republican plan

 

[boedicca]

Number one cause of bankruptcy - medical bills.

Number one cause of foreclosure - medical bills.

Emergency room, single visit - $1,000 or $1,500 if you are between 45 and 65 - paid for by taxpayers.

You are posting misinformation. Medical bills are not the biggest cause of bankruptcy.

FINDINGS
All Debtors (N = 5,203):

54 percent listed no medical debt.

Medical debt accounted for 5.5 percent of the total general unsecured debt.

90.1 percent reported medical debts less than $5,000.

1 percent of cases accounted for 36.5 percent of medical debt.

Less than 10 percent of all cases represent 80 percent of all reported medical debt.
Cases Reporting Medical Debts (N = 2,391):

Among the debtors reporting medical debt, the average medical debt was $4,978 per case.

78.4 percent reported medical debts below $5,000 (average of $1,212 for this group).

21.6 percent reported 80.9 percent of the total medical debt.

Medical debts accounted for 13.0 percent of the total general unsecured debt for those reporting medical debt.

 

[Samson]

I wonder, why, if the US Government was so very concerned about saving me money, why they don't allow me to simply pay them half the taxes they're gonna collect from me this year?

How about Deeming the Money paid and short paying the Gubmint?

Maybe if you put that into a 2000+ page proposal, I'd understand it better....

 

[Samson]

Number one cause of bankruptcy - medical bills.

Number one cause of foreclosure - medical bills.

Emergency room, single visit - $1,000 or $1,500 if you are between 45 and 65 - paid for by taxpayers.

You are posting misinformation. Medical bills are not the biggest cause of bankruptcy.

FINDINGS
All Debtors (N = 5,203):

54 percent listed no medical debt.

Medical debt accounted for 5.5 percent of the total general unsecured debt.

90.1 percent reported medical debts less than $5,000.

1 percent of cases accounted for 36.5 percent of medical debt.

Less than 10 percent of all cases represent 80 percent of all reported medical debt.
Cases Reporting Medical Debts (N = 2,391):

Among the debtors reporting medical debt, the average medical debt was $4,978 per case.

78.4 percent reported medical debts below $5,000 (average of $1,212 for this group).

21.6 percent reported 80.9 percent of the total medical debt.

Medical debts accounted for 13.0 percent of the total general unsecured debt for those reporting medical debt.

Shall I begin counting down now how long it will be before Boe's head explodes trying to logically respond to rdean?

 

[ABikerSailor]

I got my money on 10 posts if you're taking bets.......

 

[Care4all]

ok, this was 2005 talking about a study that Harvard did on bankruptcy causes....earlier in the decade so it is a bit old...

We need to figure out why different groups are reporting different things on the topic, or we can each continue to believe our own charts and articles and fight and ignore the others ....

Illness and medical bills caused half of the 1,458,000 personal bankruptcies in 2001, according to a study published by the journal Health Affairs.

The study estimates that medical bankruptcies affect about 2 million Americans annually -- counting debtors and their dependents, including about 700,000 children.

Surprisingly, most of those bankrupted by illness had health insurance. More than three-quarters were insured at the start of the bankrupting illness. However, 38 percent had lost coverage at least temporarily by the time they filed for bankruptcy.

Most of the medical bankruptcy filers were middle class; 56 percent owned a home and the same number had attended college. In many cases, illness forced breadwinners to take time off from work -- losing income and job-based health insurance precisely when families needed it most.

Families in bankruptcy suffered many privations -- 30 percent had a utility cut off and 61 percent went without needed medical care.

Read more: Medical Bills Leading Cause of Bankruptcy, Harvard Study Finds

 

[Samson]

ok, this was 2005 talking about a study that Harvard did on bankruptcy causes....earlier in the decade so it is a bit old...

We need to figure out why different groups are reporting different things on the topic, or we can each continue to believe our own charts and articles and fight and ignore the others ....

Illness and medical bills caused half of the 1,458,000 personal bankruptcies in 2001, according to a study published by the journal Health Affairs.

The study estimates that medical bankruptcies affect about 2 million Americans annually -- counting debtors and their dependents, including about 700,000 children.

Surprisingly, most of those bankrupted by illness had health insurance. More than three-quarters were insured at the start of the bankrupting illness. However, 38 percent had lost coverage at least temporarily by the time they filed for bankruptcy.

Most of the medical bankruptcy filers were middle class; 56 percent owned a home and the same number had attended college. In many cases, illness forced breadwinners to take time off from work -- losing income and job-based health insurance precisely when families needed it most.

Families in bankruptcy suffered many privations -- 30 percent had a utility cut off and 61 percent went without needed medical care.

Read more: Medical Bills Leading Cause of Bankruptcy, Harvard Study Finds

"Illness and medical bills caused half of the 1,458,000 personal bankruptcies in 2001"

That's .....****using calculator****........729,000 personal bankruptcies

Pretty paltry in a country of 300,000,000.....so let's thry to inflate the number...

"The study estimates that medical bankruptcies affect about 2 million Americans annually --
counting debtors"

so, we're counting "debtors?" The guy at the bank? AWWWW.......so sad


"and their dependents, including about 700,000 children."

finally, now we have something real for our hearts to bleed over: The CHILDREN!!!

Why, Care4all, do you suppose this is relevant? Why didn't your quote simply omit this, after all, children = dependends, right?