Billy_Bob
Diamond Member
The models for hurricane path are generally very good. The problem in this instance is that the models TOLD THEM --- there was not enough information to form an accurate projection..
That's a GOOD thing. Because it tells you that the models are SMART enough to know when not to guess.
What the media is NOT discussing and NOT showing you -- is the CONFIDENCE level associated with EACH and every one of them. ANY model that projects without a Confidence level is useless.
You SAW the hurricane doing doughnuts over the outer bahamas for 2 or 3 days. There was no track to predict.
And the media and weather readers are just TOO STUPID to be bothered with details like that. EVEN the Weather Channel KNOWs those details -- but doesn't think the public WANTS to know anything sciency..
BTW -- there are TWO low pressure areas responsible for the Carolina flooding. The one driving the weather on the coast is NOT the hurricane. But the hurricane is feeding warmth and moisture to this one.
You are Correct in your assessment of the two low pressures. This however does not feed the AGW hysteria they seek to push, as does the lack of confidence and unpredictable track of this storm. Even the European models said no predictable path.
Can you imagine a similar storm in about a month when New York and other areas are below freezing? If this type of water vapor pump continues, the eastern sea board is going to be 4 feet deep in snow very quickly. Several of the predictive models say we should expect several more of these "no land fall" storms over the next 60 days.
If we get another stationary low of cold air above and a warm water pump moving off the east coast we are going to see some very sever winter storms this year. I am currently discussing several scenarios with colleagues and expect to have the winter forecast ready in about one week. If the patterns hold, the US is going to have major snows this year on both sea boards and the Rocky Mountains. The cold air mass in the polar regions has already moved into Canada and is expected to make the Midwest in two weeks..
Its going to be a very interesting winter as even the west has cooled to normal temps as the El Nino continues to die.
Just don't panic there bud.. In the absence of a 2ndary system like for this one or for Sandy, Hurricanes breezing by 100 miles offshore or greater are just an annoyance.
No panic involved.. I love snow! There may be others who will however..... When they realize they are snowed in... I am expecting at least two or three noreaster's this year with that secondary low. Were on the down side of the 160 year magnetic solar cycle today and just like the the early to mid 1800's were entering the cooling phase..