Campi Flegrei, an incipient caldera event?

[Old Rocks]

We are seeing some very interesting developments near Naples. The best case is a release of gases and steam over a period of years, with seismic events that damage the area. The worst is a full fledged caldera eruption that would effect the whole world.

 

[HikerGuy83]

We are seeing some very interesting developments near Naples. The best case is a release of gases and steam over a period of years, with seismic events that damage the area. The worst is a full fledged caldera eruption that would effect the whole world.

Yep....there goes your global warming narrative.

 

[Crepitus]

Yep....there goes your global warming narrative.

Put your psychosis away for a while and actually respond to what the OP is talking about.

 

[BackAgain]

Hm.

Campi Flegrei (Phlegrean Fields)

Campi Flegrei (Phlegrean Fields) Volcano, Italy - facts & information / VolcanoDiscovery

www.volcanodiscovery.com

Abstract​

The ongoing volcanic unrest at the highly populated Campi Flegrei caldera is accompanied by incremental seismic activity, ground uplift and geochemical anomalies that are raising severe public concern. Here we apply an unsupervised least root square method and a tailored Monte Carlo approach to the 2019-2024 earthquake hypocenter locations and show that since 2023 seismicity has progressively clustered along a preferential N249° ± 4°, 53° ± 1°plane near the center of the caldera, concentrating more than 50% of seismic events and most of the released seismic energy. This clustering is evidence for an internal process that drives the transition from diffuse micro-seismicity to the development of an extensional volcanotectonic fault in its initial stages. The nucleation (or reactivation) of this fault suggests that caldera rocks are experiencing conditions for critical failure and may have overcome elastic deformation resulted, until 2023, in an almost perfect axisymmetric uplift, thus representing an important change for volcanic and related hazards evaluation at Campi Flegrei.

Birth and growth of a volcanotectonic fault during the current volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) - Communications Earth & Environment

Spatial analysis of seismicity within the Campi Flegrei caldera suggests it has become progressively clustered since 2023 around a central plane which is consistent with the development of an extensional volcanotectonic fault

www.nature.com

I track some of that. But not all of it. Sounds like the caldera rocka are predated from prior earthquake damage within (2023) and that this may not bode well if it blows again.

When I hear “caldera” my brain sees Yellowstone going boom. The one in Italy may be smaller but stil constitute a potential extinction event?

A bit further in the above quoted piece (the “abstract” above) is this disturbing forecast excerpt.

Bevilacqua et al. (2020)<a data-track="click" data-track-action="reference anchor" data-track-label="link" data-test="citation-ref" title="Bevilacqua, A. et al. Utilizzo preliminare del failure forecast method sui dati GPS di spostamento orizzontale registrati nella caldera dei Campi Flegrei dal 2011 al 2020. Misc. INGV 57, 135–139 (2020)." href="Birth and growth of a volcanotectonic fault during the current volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) - Communications Earth & Environment">37</a> analyzed probabilistically the evolution of the earthquake occurrence and, by applying the FFM, forecasted the reaching of a critical state of the caldera in 2023 at the 50th percentile of probability and in 2031 at the 95th percentile.

Id.

Yikes.

I did some more looking and see that if Yellowstone’s caldera were to blow, it would probably be an extinction level event for humanity.

By contrast, while not an ELE event apparently, if Campi Flegrei caldera were to go super volcano on us, Milan would be flattened and Earth would probably go through a Temporary climate cooling ( 1–3 °C globally, for a few years). It would constitute a major agricultural disruption—but not mass extinction.

The above is distilled from GPT. I haven’t checked its sources.

Anyway, I find this stuff fascinating and this one in particular somewhat concerning.

 

[Concerned American]

By contrast, while not an ELE event apparently, if Campi Flegrei caldera were to go super volcano on us, Milan would be flattened and Earth would probably go through a Temporary climate cooling ( 1–3 °C globally, for a few years).

Campi Flegrei (near Naples) is a nearly 6 hour train ride from Milan. Just sayin'

 

[Sunsettommy]

There have been numerous reports of volcanoes showing signs of waking up with the standard earthquakes and ground movements this year, posted over a dozen such reports in the Earth Arena area of my forum.

 

[BackAgain]

Campi Flegrei (near Naples) is a nearly 6 hour train ride from Milan. Just sayin'

Which is why it would be flattened (allegedly) but not NYC.

Hey. I’m not a scientist. I’ve never played one on tv. And I didn’t sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

 

[Old Rocks]

Yep....there goes your global warming narrative.

LOL On the contrary, first a decade or two of much colder temperatures, during which we burn huge amounts of fossil fuels. Then, with CO2 amounts reaching over 600 ppm, a whiplash back to very rapid warming, with weather extremes mankind has not seen since the eruption of the Toba eruption of 70,000 years ago.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hm.

Campi Flegrei (Phlegrean Fields)

Campi Flegrei (Phlegrean Fields) Volcano, Italy - facts & information / VolcanoDiscovery

www.volcanodiscovery.com

Birth and growth of a volcanotectonic fault during the current volcanic unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) - Communications Earth & Environment

Spatial analysis of seismicity within the Campi Flegrei caldera suggests it has become progressively clustered since 2023 around a central plane which is consistent with the development of an extensional volcanotectonic fault

www.nature.com

I track some of that. But not all of it. Sounds like the caldera rocka are predated from prior earthquake damage within (2023) and that this may not bode well if it blows again.

When I hear “caldera” my brain sees Yellowstone going boom. The one in Italy may be smaller but stil constitute a potential extinction event?

A bit further in the above quoted piece (the “abstract” above) is this disturbing forecast excerpt.


Id.

Yikes.

I did some more looking and see that if Yellowstone’s caldera were to blow, it would probably be an extinction level event for humanity.

By contrast, while not an ELE event apparently, if Campi Flegrei caldera were to go super volcano on us, Milan would be flattened and Earth would probably go through a Temporary climate cooling ( 1–3 °C globally, for a few years). It would constitute a major agricultural disruption—but not mass extinction.

The above is distilled from GPT. I haven’t checked its sources.

Anyway, I find this stuff fascinating and this one in particular somewhat concerning.

Agreed. I don't think even a major Yellowstone eruption would be an extinction event for mankind, but it would significantly reduce the population. Even Campi Flegrei would see a major diminishment of human population due to the agricultural impact. However, since we have never tracked a caldera eruption before, we don't know if that is imminent or if we are just seeing a larger version of Bradyseisms.

 

[Old Rocks]

Campi Flegrei (near Naples) is a nearly 6 hour train ride from Milan. Just sayin'

I don't know about flattened, but it would likely be covered with enough ash to break many roofs. Of course, that depends on the wind direction at the time. When St. Helens blew, Tacoma, Washington got less ash than Missoula, Montana. As far as weather effects go, Tambora, which was many times smaller than a full caldera eruption, caused starvation worldwide, even in the US in 1816.

 

[HikerGuy83]

LOL On the contrary, first a decade or two of much colder temperatures, during which we burn huge amounts of fossil fuels. Then, with CO2 amounts reaching over 600 ppm, a whiplash back to very rapid warming, with weather extremes mankind has not seen since the eruption of the Toba eruption of 70,000 years ago.

Don't quit your dayjob there Nostradamus.

 

[Old Rocks]

Don't quit your dayjob there Nostradamus.

On a much larger scale, this is exactly what happened in the P-T extinction event.

 

[HikerGuy83]

On a much larger scale, this is exactly what happened in the P-T extinction event.

Ruh Roh

 

[elektra]

Put your psychosis away for a while and actually respond to what the OP is talking about.

You didnt

 

[ReinyDays]

I made the mistake of actually reading up on this ... [sigh] ... before I posted ... [hangs head in shame] ...

Campi Flegrei (aka Phlegraean Fields) IS a caldera ... so of course there will still be volcanic activity ... we still need material pumped out to build a mountain 15,000 to 20,000 feet tall ... the more weight above the magma chamber, the greater the pressure, and then the bigger the explosion ... assuming the chamber fills with andesite lava ... if it fills with basaltic lava, we'll see something like Kilauea Volcano right now ...

Yellowstone is a hot-spot volcano ... just like Kilauea Volcano ... we'll see runny lava for several million years filling the Missouri/Mississippi River valleys ... c.f. the Columbia Plateau ... that wasn't an extinction event, so I doubt another Yellowstone eruption would be ...

The good news is rivers are much stronger than mountains ... any disruption of barge traffic on these rivers will be temporary ...

 

[JWBooth]

We are seeing some very interesting developments near Naples. The best case is a release of gases and steam over a period of years, with seismic events that damage the area. The worst is a full fledged caldera eruption that would effect the whole world.

How are you gonna blame this on the things that have improved living standards?

 

[Mushroom]

There have been numerous reports of volcanoes showing signs of waking up

The reality is that most of them have never really "gone to sleep".

Geological forces like this take place on timeframes far larger than most humans can even conceptualize. Humans will think something 200-300 years old is "ancient", yet these are the kinds of forces where tens of thousands of years is nothing, and a million years is like yesterday.

That is why I often laughed when I would get into a discussion about say the next big earthquake in LA (I lived through two of them), the next Yellowstone event, or the next Cascadia Earthquake. And I am being completely accurate when I state that each and every one of those is due to happen again or are overdue.

And I often chuckle inside when they get a bit of a look of panic, and I have to explain that while it can happen "tomorrow", when talking in geological time that could mean anywhere from hundreds to tens of thousands of years from now.

In the case of a great many, it's just that their cycles of being active so long predate modern human history that they are literally unknown to most people. Mount Hood is a classic example, as that is an active volcano that people live almost on top of. There are a number of active volcanoes in the US, especially in the Cascade Range.

And unlike their Southern Cousins, if the current theories and models are correct those will continue to be active for millions of years more. Especially as there is no reason at all to believe that all the events of new volcanos and flood basalts is over.

 

[Old Rocks]

How are you gonna blame this on the things that have improved living standards?

Oh my, another idiot that cannot keep on subject. LOL

 

[CrusaderFrank]

We are seeing some very interesting developments near Naples. The best case is a release of gases and steam over a period of years, with seismic events that damage the area. The worst is a full fledged caldera eruption that would effect the whole world.

Cascadia is also getting very active

 

[Old Rocks]

I made the mistake of actually reading up on this ... [sigh] ... before I posted ... [hangs head in shame] ...

Campi Flegrei (aka Phlegraean Fields) IS a caldera ... so of course there will still be volcanic activity ... we still need material pumped out to build a mountain 15,000 to 20,000 feet tall ... the more weight above the magma chamber, the greater the pressure, and then the bigger the explosion ... assuming the chamber fills with andesite lava ... if it fills with basaltic lava, we'll see something like Kilauea Volcano right now ...

Yellowstone is a hot-spot volcano ... just like Kilauea Volcano ... we'll see runny lava for several million years filling the Missouri/Mississippi River valleys ... c.f. the Columbia Plateau ... that wasn't an extinction event, so I doubt another Yellowstone eruption would be ...

The good news is rivers are much stronger than mountains ... any disruption of barge traffic on these rivers will be temporary ...

Hotspots in ocean provinces produce basaltic, very running lavas. Pretty much not that explosive of eruptions. Hotspots under continental crust produce both basaltic and rhyolitic eruptions. Basaltic, like the Columbia Basalts. Rhyolitic like the calderas in Nevada, Oregon, Idaho, and Wyoming. And those are very explosive, often producing huge amounts of ash and sulfur dioxide. Which can cool the earth several degrees for a couple of decades. Very big difference between the types of eruptions of Kilauea and Yellowstone.