BREAKING: Czech Senate declares Moscow Vrbětice attack an act of state terrorism!!

[Baron]

Moscow poor and no enough friends for anything big

The best Russian friend. No another ones necessary

 

[Silver Cat]

Bulgarians also try to find a Russian trail in Bulgarian bursts of weapon factories.

Data Shows Alleged Russian Agents In Bulgaria Around Time Of Arms-Depot Blasts

Czech officials blame a secretive Russian military intelligence unit for a 2014 explosion at an ammunition depot. Members of that same unit were traveling in Bulgaria around the same time that six explosions hit Bulgarian weapons factories in 2014 and 2015.

www.rferl.org

 

[Silver Cat]

And yes, sober Czech PM, who is responsible for the real politic clearly said, that it was not an act of state terrorism.

Czech PM backtracks saying Russia did NOT attack country, alleged blowing up of munition depot was 'not act of state terrorism'

Russia "did not attack" the Czech Republic and the 2014 explosions at the Vrbětice arms depot were "not state terrorism," Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis told reporters, but insisted the 'GRU' was still involved in the blast. "It was not an act...

www.sott.net

Russia "did not attack" the Czech Republic and the 2014 explosions at the Vrbětice arms depot were "not state terrorism," Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis told reporters, but insisted the 'GRU' was still involved in the blast.

"It was not an act of state terrorism, which means that Russia did not attack the Czech Republic," Babis said on Monday. "Once again - it was not an act of state terrorism, it was an attack on goods belonging to a Bulgarian arms dealer."
[... ]

Two people died in the first of the two explosions at Vrbetice, in October 2014. Another blast took place at the depot in December that year. The munitions affected were owned by a Bulgarian arms dealer, and their final destination was rumored to be Ukraine or Syria. 'GRU' is the Cold War-era name of Russian military intelligence, which was changed to GU in 2010.

 

[ESay]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

 

[Silver Cat]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

 

[ESay]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

 

[Silver Cat]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

Does it mean, that you don't believe that Kievan regime will fight against Russian Army, if they come with their banners waving?

 

[ESay]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

Does it mean, that you don't believe that Kievan regime will fight against Russian Army, if they come with their banners waving?

No, it seems you got something incorrectly.

 

[Silver Cat]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

Does it mean, that you don't believe that Kievan regime will fight against Russian Army, if they come with their banners waving?

No, it seems you got something incorrectly.

Ok. Let's recall "Abkhazian scenario". There were two (in fact more, but does not matter) separatist's regions in Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia, de facto controlled by Moscow, and habitated by Russian citizens. After the short period of tension, young and stupid Georgian president - Saakashwilli, gave an order to retake South Ossetia by the military force. Predictable, Russia reacted on the attempt of the mass murder of her citizens, and started the operation of "coerction to peace", in which there were attacks against Georgian military targets on all territory of Georgia, and there was created a treat to Tbilisi by a tank battalion, and almost all effective Georgian forces were eliminated. Then there was signed an agreement:
1) Georgia don't attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia (if they try - it is direct attack about Russia, and Russia will retake Tbilisi);
2) Russia don't attack Georgia;
3) The USA and the EU don't make sanctions against Russia;
4) Business as usual - Russian tourists in Georgia, Georgian vines in Russia, etc...

Therefore, Abkhazian scenario for Donbass looks like:
There are two (actually more, but does not matter) separatists regions in Ukraine - Donetsk People Republic, and Lugansk People Republic. After a short period of tension, young and stupid Ukrainian president gave an order to attack Donetsk by the military force. Russia, predictable, try to prevent mass murder of her citizens, and bomb all military targets on all the territory of Ukraine. The same day, one tank army attack from Belgorod at direction Kharkov-Dnepr-Melitopol-Kherson, another group attack from Crymea at direction Kherson-Odessa-Tiraspol eliminate main Ukrainian forces and secure South-East regions of former Ukraine.
Main forces attack from Gomel on direction Chernigov - Kiev.
If Zelenskiy is clever enough to sign another agreement, and do not violate it - there will be "Abkhazian scenario". If no - Russian tanks will be in Kiev.

 

[ESay]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

Does it mean, that you don't believe that Kievan regime will fight against Russian Army, if they come with their banners waving?

No, it seems you got something incorrectly.

Ok. Let's recall "Abkhazian scenario". There were two (in fact more, but does not matter) separatist's regions in Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia, de facto controlled by Moscow, and habitated by Russian citizens. After the short period of tension, young and stupid Georgian president - Saakashwilli, gave an order to retake South Ossetia by the military force. Predictable, Russia reacted on the attempt of the mass murder of her citizens, and started the operation of "coerction to peace", in which there were attacks against Georgian military targets on all territory of Georgia, and there was created a treat to Tbilisi by a tank battalion, and almost all effective Georgian forces were eliminated. Then there was signed an agreement:
1) Georgia don't attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia (if they try - it is direct attack about Russia, and Russia will retake Tbilisi);
2) Russia don't attack Georgia;
3) The USA and the EU don't make sanctions against Russia;
4) Business as usual - Russian tourists in Georgia, Georgian vines in Russia, etc...

Therefore, Abkhazian scenario for Donbass looks like:
There are two (actually more, but does not matter) separatists regions in Ukraine - Donetsk People Republic, and Lugansk People Republic. After a short period of tension, young and stupid Ukrainian president gave an order to attack Donetsk by the military force. Russia, predictable, try to prevent mass murder of her citizens, and bomb all military targets on all the territory of Ukraine. The same day, one tank army attack from Belgorod at direction Kharkov-Dnepr-Melitopol-Kherson, another group attack from Crymea at direction Kherson-Odessa-Tiraspol eliminate main Ukrainian forces and secure South-East regions of former Ukraine.
Main forces attack from Gomel on direction Chernigov - Kiev.
If Zelenskiy is clever enough to sign another agreement, and do not violate it - there will be "Abkhazian scenario". If no - Russian tanks will be in Kiev.

As I told you above, I dont believe a local war can happen in such a scale. There wont be any tank battalions in Kiev direction or air strikes of Ukrainian bases inside the territory.

Though, there can be an ultimatum from Russia - either Ukraine meets demands of Lugandon to some date or Russia recognizes the 'republics' as sovereign states. A some sort of mild Abkhazia scenario.

 

[Silver Cat]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

Some prefer Crymean scenario, some do Transnistria scensrio, some do Croatia scenario. So, what is your point?

From what I hear and feel around me, not many people want a hot war to retake Donbas. On the contrary, the most wants to frozen the conflict.

You see, "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties".
And there are at least two parties wanting to solve this problem, one way or another.
So, what do people around you prefer - to finally lose Donbass (and, may be, some other regions) in a local war which will be finished by Russian tanks in Kiev and elimination of the Junta regime, or to finally lose Donbass (and may be, some other regions) in a regional war, which will be finished by Russian tanks in Berlin, Paris and Brussel, with the active usage of (at least) tactical nukes?

Your premise is entirely false. There wont be any regional war and wont be any local war which will end up in Kiev. I don't exclude though there will be some hot conflict in Donbass again which will end up in Russia recognizing Lugandon as separate states. The Abkhazia scenario.

Does it mean, that you don't believe that Kievan regime will fight against Russian Army, if they come with their banners waving?

No, it seems you got something incorrectly.

Ok. Let's recall "Abkhazian scenario". There were two (in fact more, but does not matter) separatist's regions in Georgia - South Ossetia and Abkhazia, de facto controlled by Moscow, and habitated by Russian citizens. After the short period of tension, young and stupid Georgian president - Saakashwilli, gave an order to retake South Ossetia by the military force. Predictable, Russia reacted on the attempt of the mass murder of her citizens, and started the operation of "coerction to peace", in which there were attacks against Georgian military targets on all territory of Georgia, and there was created a treat to Tbilisi by a tank battalion, and almost all effective Georgian forces were eliminated. Then there was signed an agreement:
1) Georgia don't attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia (if they try - it is direct attack about Russia, and Russia will retake Tbilisi);
2) Russia don't attack Georgia;
3) The USA and the EU don't make sanctions against Russia;
4) Business as usual - Russian tourists in Georgia, Georgian vines in Russia, etc...

Therefore, Abkhazian scenario for Donbass looks like:
There are two (actually more, but does not matter) separatists regions in Ukraine - Donetsk People Republic, and Lugansk People Republic. After a short period of tension, young and stupid Ukrainian president gave an order to attack Donetsk by the military force. Russia, predictable, try to prevent mass murder of her citizens, and bomb all military targets on all the territory of Ukraine. The same day, one tank army attack from Belgorod at direction Kharkov-Dnepr-Melitopol-Kherson, another group attack from Crymea at direction Kherson-Odessa-Tiraspol eliminate main Ukrainian forces and secure South-East regions of former Ukraine.
Main forces attack from Gomel on direction Chernigov - Kiev.
If Zelenskiy is clever enough to sign another agreement, and do not violate it - there will be "Abkhazian scenario". If no - Russian tanks will be in Kiev.

As I told you above, I dont believe a local war can happen in such a scale. There wont be any tank battalions in Kiev direction or air strikes of Ukrainian bases inside the territory.

Why do you think so? Some sort of wishful thinking?

Though, there can be an ultimatum from Russia - either Ukraine meets demands of Lugandon to some date or Russia recognizes the 'republics' as sovereign states. A some sort of mild Abkhazia scenario.

In the case of Abkhazia, first - they came to Tbilisi, and only then - recognized those republics as independent states.

 

[Litwin]

EU’s Baltic states expel four Russian diplomats in solidarity with Prague

The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said Friday they were expelling a total of four Russian diplomats in solidarity with the Czech Republic, which is involved in a spat with Moscow.

www.france24.com

 

[Silver Cat]

EU’s Baltic states expel four Russian diplomats in solidarity with Prague

The Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania said Friday they were expelling a total of four Russian diplomats in solidarity with the Czech Republic, which is involved in a spat with Moscow.

www.france24.com

 

[ESay]

Why do you think so? Some sort of wishful thinking

I think that some sort of common sense. The ability to wage more or less big war depends not only on military strength. One should take into consideration the size and sustainability of the economy, the strength and 'patriotism' of political establishment etc. Not that Russia is incapable to carry out 'local' operations like Crimean and Syrian ones. But clearly it cant withstand an economical war with the West which will follow Russian invasion in Ukraine.

In the case of Abkhazia, first - they came to Tbilisi, and only then - recognized those republics as independent states

When I say about various scenarios, I mean a similar pattern and result. A similar one, not the same. It is silly to suggest that 'Abkhazia scenario' in Ukraine will mirror completely what was in Georgia in 2008.

 

[Silver Cat]

Why do you think so? Some sort of wishful thinking

I think that some sort of common sense. The ability to wage more or less big war depends not only on military strength. One should take into consideration the size and sustainability of the economy, the strength and 'patriotism' of political establishment etc. Not that Russia is incapable to carry out 'local' operations like Crimean and Syrian ones. But clearly it cant withstand an economical war with the West which will follow Russian invasion in Ukraine.

Didn't you ask yourself - can the West (it is not really united and has enough of problems, too) withstand an economical war with the East (or even Russia only), especially if Russia will pillage Ukraine, not EU?

In the case of Abkhazia, first - they came to Tbilisi, and only then - recognized those republics as independent states

When I say about various scenarios, I mean a similar pattern and result. A similar one, not the same. It is silly to suggest that 'Abkhazia scenario' in Ukraine will mirror completely what was in Georgia in 2008.

The "same result" should looks like:

1) Two states are "independent" in old administrative borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
2) Ukraine recognise this border (no shooting, no shelling, no bombing) de facto (like it is with Crymea).
3) No sanctions.

Is it possible? I very doubt.

 

[ESay]

Didn't you ask yourself - can the West (it is not really united and has enough of problems, too) withstand an economical war with the East (or even Russia only), especially if Russia will pillage Ukraine, not EU

I wasnt talking about the East. Yes, I think the West can withstand Russia economically.

The "same result" should looks like:

1) Two states are "independent" in old administrative borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
2) Ukraine recognise this border (no shooting, no shelling, no bombing) de facto (like it is with Crymea).
3) No sanctions.

Is it possible? I very doubt

The 1st and 3rd points are highly unlikely. The 2nd is possible, depending on some factors.

If you dont like the names of scenarios which I propose, you can offer yours.

 

[Silver Cat]

Didn't you ask yourself - can the West (it is not really united and has enough of problems, too) withstand an economical war with the East (or even Russia only), especially if Russia will pillage Ukraine, not EU

I wasnt talking about the East. Yes, I think the West can withstand Russia economically.

You see, the main problem about economical conflict with Russia is China (and other countries of Shanghai Pact). They understand pretty well, that Russia is their main defender from potential "Western aggression". Therefore, China helps Russia economically, Russia helps China military. More Western sanctions - stronger cooperation between Russia and China.

The "same result" should looks like:

1) Two states are "independent" in old administrative borders of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.
2) Ukraine recognise this border (no shooting, no shelling, no bombing) de facto (like it is with Crymea).
3) No sanctions.

Is it possible? I very doubt

The 1st and 3rd points are highly unlikely. The 2nd is possible, depending on some factors.

If you dont like the names of scenarios which I propose, you can offer yours.

All those scenarios can be named "Ukraine-prefered scenarios". "We want this". But, as it was said "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties", and there are more than one party in this game.

 

[ESay]

You see, the main problem about economical conflict with Russia is China (and other countries of Shanghai Pact). They understand pretty well, that Russia is their main defender from potential "Western aggression". Therefore, China helps Russia economically, Russia helps China military. More Western sanctions - stronger cooperation between Russia and China

Basically yes, I agree that the main rival of the West is China. Other countries which will be in a pro-China bloc will have to look back on Beijing and adapt their policy. The West needs to figure out how to deal with China first and after that take a look on regional powers.

All those scenarios can be named "Ukraine-prefered scenarios". "We want this". But, as it was said "consent is the product of full non-resistance of the parties", and there are more than one party in this game

Okay, and I dont see a reason why Ukraine cant realize it. Make safety zone on the frontline, halt all negotiations and mind our own business. I think it is the best solution.

 

[Litwin]

From another point of view, the Russians say, that murder of Donbass civilians is a terroristic act, therefore elimination of a weapon depot is an anti-terroristic act and protection of Russian citizens.

its not 1939 and you are not Marxist ussr
Shelling of Mainila - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Shelling_of_Mainila



The Shelling of Mainila was a military incident on 26 November 1939 in which the Soviet Union's Red Army shelled the Soviet village of Mainila (Russian: Ма́йнило, romanized: Máynilo) near Beloostrov. The Soviet Union declared that the fire originated from Finland across the ... The Finnish side denied responsibility for the attacks and identified Soviet ...

Sure, it's not 1939. It's not a secret, that Ukrainian forces shell objects in DPR and LPR.
For example, today, they shelled Dzerjinsk, Gorlovka, Novgorodskaya and Zheleznaya Balka.
View attachment 483096

Some time ago, Ukraine proposed international peacekeepers to be located between the warring sides.

Croatian scenario? No need. Russia can send her own forces to protect her citizens. And yes, there is Minsk agreement, which means decentralization of Ukraine.

Decentralization doesn't mean federalization despite what Lugandon claims.

No need of Croation scenario. Personally I prefer making the frontline as our state border with needed infrastructure and cutting all negotiations with Lugandon and Russia about this matter. A Transnistria scenario.

It is not just about what do you want. It is about what other people (from other Ukrainian regions and other states) want. And many of them prefer Crymean scenario, or, may be, even overthrowing Kievan Junta by military force. If you don't want respect their opinion - they are not going to respect yours. That's what we call "democratic opposition" - more freedom for everyone.

"Let us begin with this evident fact: "Russia" (Muscovy) does not belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging "Russia" (Muscovy) and the "Russians" (Muscovites) by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."—gonzague de reynold, 19501

In methodological terms, one should de-Europeanise any analysis of "Russian" (Muscovy ) policy.— thomas gomart, 20062

I am reading this book https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/9780815735748_ch1.pdf right now, and I want to share with your board members parlors from this book, in order to better understand the character of the second cold war and end the endless discussions around very nature of Moscow empire . the major problem with analysis of Moscow aggression against us" de-Europeanise any analysis of Muscovite policy" , " Muscovy doesn´t belong at all to Europe, but to Asia. It follows that judging Moscow and the Muscovites by our European standards is a mistake to be avoided."

 

[Litwin]

Moscow terrorism in EU