Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan

[C_Clayton_Jones]

"The first week of polls conducted primarily after President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, generally did not offer much to bolster the president's reelection hopes.

Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states (though Georgia is a virtual tie) – and he expanded his lead in seven of those states, including big gains in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Nationally, Biden surged 2 percentage points to a more than 10-point lead, according to the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead between the two polling averages was 6.2 points at this point four years ago.

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)"

The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan

A Biden victory in Florida and Pennsylvania along with North Carolina is important not just with regard to Biden being elected president, but it will also make Biden’s margin of victory such that any challenge Trump state surrogates might attempt would be pointless.

 

[Harry Dresden]

your hoping biden wins ....you dont want to have to disappear for a few months like you did last time.....its ok you dont have to reply....

 

[konradv]

I have a feeling that Biden's lead is even bigger. IMO, the shy voter effect will go against Trump this time, as former Trump voters who are tired of his sh*t aren't telling their friends and families

 

[denmark]

I have a feeling that Biden's lead is even bigger. IMO, the shy voter effect will go against Trump this time, as former Trump voters who are tired of his sh*t aren't telling their friends and families

In 2016, Trump and the Russian oligarchs were successful in exhausting the Clinton campaign email issue (Russians did not release Trump campaign emails), and many voters were thinking “anyone but Hillary”.
Now, it’s “anyone but Trump”.

 

[mamooth]

Strapped for cash, Trump yanks TV ads in key states as Biden spending surges

Trump stops TV and radio ads in Ohio, Iowa and New Hampshire as Biden expands into Texas and Georgia.

www.latimes.com

The Trump campaign has abandoned Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. no doubt thinking the first two will work out, and the rest are lost causes that aren't needed. They're focusing their limited cash on Pennsylvania and the sunbelt states

So, Trump's strategy is to win Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. He'd have to sweep all of those. (Maybe he could lose Iowa, I haven't done the exact count.)

 

[Auld Phart]

I don't expect to know which poll is correct until

and maybe not even then.

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

I hate to burst your bubble, corn puff.

But you know what, in the battle ground states Biden is behind where Hillaryous was in 2016. And Trump is higher in the average than he was in 2016.

And with all the weighted polling, like it was in 2016, that would mean Trump is even further ahead.

Just the facts, corn puff.

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

www.realclearpolitics.com

 

[deannalw]

LOL!

The only double digits that apply to Biden are the numbers of supporters at his rallies and the number of brain cells he has left.

 

[Mytwocents]

Never took polls seriously...

 

[denmark]

I hate to burst your bubble, corn puff.

But you know what, in the battle ground states Biden is behind where Hillaryous was in 2016. And Trump is higher in the average than he was in 2016.

And with all the weighted polling, like it was in 2016, that would mean Trump is even further ahead.

Just the facts, corn puff.

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

www.realclearpolitics.com

You have a good point. Polls can be very unreliable, as we saw in 2016, where the battleground states made the difference for the electoral college.
Pollsters did have problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

I hate to burst your bubble, corn puff.

But you know what, in the battle ground states Biden is behind where Hillaryous was in 2016. And Trump is higher in the average than he was in 2016.

And with all the weighted polling, like it was in 2016, that would mean Trump is even further ahead.

Just the facts, corn puff.

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

www.realclearpolitics.com

You have a good point. Polls can be very unreliable, as we saw in 2016, where the battleground states made the difference for the electoral college.
Pollsters did have problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

No they haven't. They aren't sampling Blacks and Latinos at the higher percentage going for Trump. Democrats are arrogant and refuse to accept it. And Blacks and Latinos are more shy than the silent majority.

If the Black vote for Trump goes up from 7% to 12% they said Trump would win. Blexit alone has over 500,000 members now.

 

[denmark]

I hate to burst your bubble, corn puff.

But you know what, in the battle ground states Biden is behind where Hillaryous was in 2016. And Trump is higher in the average than he was in 2016.

And with all the weighted polling, like it was in 2016, that would mean Trump is even further ahead.

Just the facts, corn puff.

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

www.realclearpolitics.com

You have a good point. Polls can be very unreliable, as we saw in 2016, where the battleground states made the difference for the electoral college.
Pollsters did have problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

No they haven't. They aren't sampling Blacks and Latinos at the higher percentage going for Trump. Democrats are arrogant and refuse to accept it. And Blacks and Latinos are more shy than the silent majority.

If the Black vote for Trump goes up from 7% to 12% they said Trump would win. Blexit alone has over 500,000 members now.

How do you know about your alleged polling issues?
Do you work for one of the polling consulting firms?

 

[Sun Devil 92]

"The first week of polls conducted primarily after President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, generally did not offer much to bolster the president's reelection hopes.

Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states (though Georgia is a virtual tie) – and he expanded his lead in seven of those states, including big gains in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Nationally, Biden surged 2 percentage points to a more than 10-point lead, according to the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead between the two polling averages was 6.2 points at this point four years ago.

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)"

The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan

A Biden victory in Florida and Pennsylvania along with North Carolina is important not just with regard to Biden being elected president, but it will also make Biden’s margin of victory such that any challenge Trump state surrogates might attempt would be pointless.

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

I hate to burst your bubble, corn puff.

But you know what, in the battle ground states Biden is behind where Hillaryous was in 2016. And Trump is higher in the average than he was in 2016.

And with all the weighted polling, like it was in 2016, that would mean Trump is even further ahead.

Just the facts, corn puff.

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

RealClearPolitics - Top Battlegrounds (2020 vs. 2016): Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona

www.realclearpolitics.com

You have a good point. Polls can be very unreliable, as we saw in 2016, where the battleground states made the difference for the electoral college.
Pollsters did have problems in 2016 - notably a failure to properly represent voters without a college degree - meaning Mr Trump's advantage in some key battleground states wasn't spotted until late in the race, if at all. Most polling companies have corrected this now.

No they haven't. They aren't sampling Blacks and Latinos at the higher percentage going for Trump. Democrats are arrogant and refuse to accept it. And Blacks and Latinos are more shy than the silent majority.

If the Black vote for Trump goes up from 7% to 12% they said Trump would win. Blexit alone has over 500,000 members now.

How do you know about your alleged polling issues?
Do you work for one of the polling consulting firms?

No, just study. Do you honestly believe Trump is going to get 5 Million less votes this time as the polling percentages suggest?

 

[toobfreak]

Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states

JOE BIDEN! The man is superhuman-- -- like a supercooled chromium steel ball-bearing racing down a plank picking up speed in a bath of teflon and condom lube! He may be the first human being to launch into orbit! Trump is so overmatched by this DYNAMO that Donald may have to concede the election two weeks before just to minimize the shame!

 

[mamooth]

No they haven't. They aren't sampling Blacks and Latinos at the higher percentage going for Trump.

You're not making any sense. You're claiming that since the polls don't match your fantasy, the polls have to be wrong.

Have you considered that it's your fantasy that's wrong, instead of the polls?

 

[Ricky LIbtardo]

No they haven't. They aren't sampling Blacks and Latinos at the higher percentage going for Trump.

You're not making any sense. You're claiming that since the polls don't match your fantasy, the polls have to be wrong.

Have you considered that it's your fantasy that's wrong, instead of the polls?

My observations are not fantasy. They're based on my investigation of polling logistics. Demographic models have not been changed to accurately represent the anecdotal evidence we are seeing. Your dismissal of the obvious is your problem, not mine.

 

[mamooth]

Demographic models have not been changed to accurately represent the anecdotal evidence we are seeing.

Here's the thing about anecdotal evidence. No matter what position you take, you can always find a whole lot of anecdotal evidence to back you up, expecially if you dedicate yourself to searching for that anecdotal evidence.

And the right does have a propaganda machine dedicated to searching for anecdotes and then feeding those anecdotes to the base to keep the base deluded and hysterical. Just look at this board, with all the daily poutrage threads from the right on topics that nobody cares about. There's no equivalant thing coming from the left. The left runs on data, the right runs on anecdotes.

 

[Harry Dresden]

Demographic models have not been changed to accurately represent the anecdotal evidence we are seeing.

Here's the thing about anecdotal evidence. No matter what position you take, you can always find a whole lot of anecdotal evidence to back you up, expecially if you dedicate yourself to searching for that anecdotal evidence.

And the right does have a propaganda machine dedicated to searching for anecdotes and then feeding those anecdotes to the base to keep the base deluded and hysterical. Just look at this board, with all the daily poutrage threads from the right on topics that nobody cares about. There's no equivalant thing coming from the left. The left runs on data, the right runs on anecdotes.

lol...somehow the left is different right?...

 

[MarathonMike]

"The first week of polls conducted primarily after President Donald Trump contracted COVID-19, generally did not offer much to bolster the president's reelection hopes.

Biden continued to lead Trump in 10 of 11 swing states (though Georgia is a virtual tie) – and he expanded his lead in seven of those states, including big gains in Florida, Michigan, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Nationally, Biden surged 2 percentage points to a more than 10-point lead, according to the USA TODAY average of averages, which is based on the polling averages calculated by RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight. By comparison, 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's lead between the two polling averages was 6.2 points at this point four years ago.

National average

USA TODAY average of averages: Biden 52.1%, Trump 42.0% (Biden +10.1)"

The week in polls: Biden hits double-digit lead in national average, surges in Florida, Michigan

A Biden victory in Florida and Pennsylvania along with North Carolina is important not just with regard to Biden being elected president, but it will also make Biden’s margin of victory such that any challenge Trump state surrogates might attempt would be pointless.