Antarctic melting started 5000 years earlier than thought

Antarctic melt to 'double sea-level rise'...

'Drastic' Antarctic melt could double global sea-level rise
Wed, 30 Mar 2016 - Sea levels could rise by more than double the current estimate over the next 100 years, according to a new analysis of climate change in Antarctica.
The modelling assessment says that Antarctic melting alone could contribute more than a metre to sea level by the end of this century. By 2500, according to the study, the same source could cause levels across the world to rise by 13m. The authors say that rapid cuts in carbon emissions could limit this risk.

_89009543_c0157237-tourists_at_edge_of_ice_shelf,_antarctica-spl.jpg

Competing ideas

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that, without any restrictions on carbon emissions, the seas around the world likely rise by up to 98cm by 2100. However, the IPCC estimates contained a minimum contribution from Antarctica. Other analyses since then have projected bigger increases, with a recent study suggesting that the oceans were rising faster than at any time in the past 2,800 years and by 2100 they could be up to 1.31m higher.

The exact level of Antarctica's impact on these projections has been vigorously debated. Late last year, a research paper suggested that projections of a contribution of a metre or more were not plausible. But this new study argues that by 2100 the world could see 1.14m of sea-level rise from Antarctica alone. The scientists involved expect that these extra factors will kick in over the coming decades, as warming from the atmosphere (not just from warmer waters below) becomes the dominant driver of ice loss.

Additions to the model
 
Antarctic Ice Sheet unstable at end of last ice age | News and Research Communications | Oregon State University

CORVALLIS, Ore. – A new study has found that the Antarctic Ice Sheet began melting about 5,000 years earlier than previously thought coming out of the last ice age – and that shrinkage of the vast ice sheet accelerated during eight distinct episodes, causing rapid sea level rise.

The international study, funded in part by the National Science Foundation, is particularly important coming on the heels of recent studies that suggest destabilization of part of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has begun.

Results of this latest study are being published this week in the journal Nature. It was conducted by researchers at University of Cologne, Oregon State University, the Alfred-Wegener-Institute, University of Hawaii at Manoa, University of Lapland, University of New South Wales, and University of Bonn.

The researchers examined two sediment cores from the Scotia Sea between Antarctica and South America that contained “iceberg-rafted debris” that had been scraped off Antarctica by moving ice and deposited via icebergs into the sea. As the icebergs melted, they dropped the minerals into the seafloor sediments, giving scientists a glimpse at the past behavior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

Periods of rapid increases in iceberg-rafted debris suggest that more icebergs were being released by the Antarctic Ice Sheet. The researchers discovered increased amounts of debris during eight separate episodes beginning as early as 20,000 years ago, and continuing until 9,000 years ago.

Well yes, that is what the scientists have been saying for years, the southern ocean begins the warmup because of the way that the Milankovic Cycles work.
 

Forum List

Back
Top