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The modelling assessment says that Antarctic melting alone could contribute more than a metre to sea level by the end of this century. By 2500, according to the study, the same source could cause levels across the world to rise by 13m. The authors say that rapid cuts in carbon emissions could limit this risk.
Competing ideas
In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted that, without any restrictions on carbon emissions, the seas around the world likely rise by up to 98cm by 2100. However, the IPCC estimates contained a minimum contribution from Antarctica. Other analyses since then have projected bigger increases, with a recent study suggesting that the oceans were rising faster than at any time in the past 2,800 years and by 2100 they could be up to 1.31m higher.
The exact level of Antarctica's impact on these projections has been vigorously debated. Late last year, a research paper suggested that projections of a contribution of a metre or more were not plausible. But this new study argues that by 2100 the world could see 1.14m of sea-level rise from Antarctica alone. The scientists involved expect that these extra factors will kick in over the coming decades, as warming from the atmosphere (not just from warmer waters below) becomes the dominant driver of ice loss.
Additions to the model