A sobering question regarding US bombing Iran nuke program

[HikerGuy83]

The problem is they probably would most likely never do that. What they will do is enable some clandestine terrorist group to smuggle a dirty bomb into some heavily populated or militarily sensitive area. They are notorious for enabling others to do their dirty work.

Oooooooooooooohhhhhhhh......but if we linked it to them (rock solid case), they'd be history.

Do they want to take the chance that we would not be able to do that. And do they want to bet our on our unwillingness to devastate them if there is any doubt?

 

[HikerGuy83]

You know there are reasons we don't usually do crap like this.

Sure, we can claim Iran is a threat. But remember:

- Xi can claim Taiwan is a threat.

- Kim Jon Ung can claim South Korea is a threat.

- India can claim Pakistan is a threat.

- Turkey can claim Greece is a threat.

- and on and on and on...

Russia has already declared Ukraine a threat.

Will tRump declare Greenland or Canada a threat next?

The only warning we may get before WWIII stars is tRump making Barron a podiatry appointment.

Yep....got enough problems to deal with....without having a rouge fanatic state getting a bomb.

I vote don't let them have one.

 

[Zavulon]

Well, you can't get one without the other.

Kinda like pleading he 5th.

When in doubt....take it out.

Anyway, its not up to the USA decide who is guilty and who is not. So, no. You didn't prove the necessity of those actions, just claimed that the voices in the Trump's (or Bibi's) head told you to do it.

 

[Zavulon]

Yep....got enough problems to deal with....without having a rouge fanatic state getting a bomb.

I vote don't let them have one.

Its too late. Trump just effectively finished NPT and motivated Iran not to make, but to buy bombs. And what can you do about it?

 

[HikerGuy83]

They willingly chose to not pursue getting nukes if (and this is the point) they have right to develop their civilian nuclear program. That's all this NPT is about.
And, by his senseless attack against civilian nuclear infrastructure, Trump effectively destroyed NPT. Not only for Iran, but to all other countries, too. In fact, NPT doesn't exist anymore. Everyone can sell and buy nukes.

They have not shown themselves to be trustworthy (based on a lot of different factors).

If they want enriched uranium so bad, why don't they contract with someone to do it for them?

There are other ways....to power their nuclear sumbarine fleet which they don't currently have (BTW).

 

[Dogmaphobe]

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

How many deaths did Nevil Chamberlain cause by NOT confronting a clear and present danger?

People concern themselves with the repercussions for doing something, all the while ignoring the repercussions for not doing it.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Its too late. Trump just effectively finished NPT and motivated Iran not to make, but to buy bombs. And what can you do about it?

The question really is...what does Iran think we'll do about it.

Let's say they buy a bomb. Do they think we won't know?

If they can keep it a secret....great for them.

Let's say they use it against us. And we never figure it out.

We lose a city.

Let's say they use it against us. And we tie it to them.

They cease to exist.

Let's say we do find out about the bomb.

1. Who will we be talking with about selling them weapons.
2. Will it be 1 or 2 days before we destroy the bomb at whatever location they have it stored and let them deal with fallout (literal).

So, to answer your question...plenty.

 

[Zavulon]

First strike annihilation of the entire country of Iran. If Russia wants to play....so be it.

Really? Iran is a rather big country with more than 90 mln population. There are 1245 cities and towns and you just don't have enough of nukes to eliminate them all. Anyway, if you use all your missiles on Iran, Russia and China will finish America without suffering even minimal losses from US retaliation.

 

[kyzr]

Of course no. Ok, let's play the game. Russian and China sold Iran some nuclear weapons. Iran attacked American military bases on Middle East. Fifty thousand US soldiers are dead, almost no American civilians are harmed. Iran suggests pretty generous peace deal - "Americans flew from Middle East and never returns armed. If America retaliate and hit Iranian bases on Iranian soil - Iran will hit American military targets on American soil. If America hit Iranian cities - Iran will hit American cities (and it will cause hundreds of thousands killed civilians). If America attack Russian and Chines cities - America cease it's existence and 90% of Americans die in less than a year".
What can America do in such circumstances?

nuke Iran, nuke Russia (or whoever gave Iran the nuke).
You do know that nuclear bombs have clear signatures as to where they came from?

 

[Eman623]

Its too late. Trump just effectively finished NPT and motivated Iran not to make, but to buy bombs. And what can you do about it?

They aren't going to be able to buy a hundred, two hundred, whatever, an unlimited number of nukes, like they could build if they still had a nuclear program.

At best they might be able to buy 1 or 2 from North Korea. But I'm not sure why even Fatboy Kim would want to do that.

With that few, they would need to hang onto them dearly. So they actually would be defensive devices then.

Until Israel covertly destroys them on the ground with drones or something anyway. Iran is not a popular regime and has a lot of internal opposition. We saw how Israel was able to send teams into Iran and wreak havoc at will.

 

[HikerGuy83]

So, no. You didn't prove the necessity of those actions, just claimed that the voices in the Trump's (or Bibi's) head told you to do it.

Whatever you say. They are currently back in the stone ages when it comes to building a bomb. You worried about them buying one? I would let them know if that if we even caught wind of that discussion, the current regime and all the appointed succession better have their life insurance paid up.

 

[ShahdagMountains]

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

How many deaths did Nevil Chamberlain cause by NOT confronting a clear and present danger?

People concern themselves with the repercussions for doing something, all the while ignoring the repercussions for not doing it.

Some eerie parallels there. The British were well aware of the German secret military buildup, which had been explicitly forbidden by the Versailles Treaty. Secret files about it were locked away in some government department somewhere. Churchill suspected this, and was treated as a mad man for speaking out about it. He also had to contend with the woke Stanley Baldwin, the villain of the piece IMO, and the forerunner of Neville Chamberlain.

 

[Foxfyre]

Not necessarily dirty bomb. Proper clean nukes is the main possibility. May be, they'll have a Houthies or somebody to push the button.

No such thing as a 'clean nuke.' That's why they've never been used since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

Dirty bombs typically do not utilize radiation in lethal amounts because those using them don't have access to radiation in lethal amounts. But the Iranians, should they start exporting dirty bombs for other terrorist groups to use, could produce such bombs with lethal radiation.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Really? Iran is a rather big country with more than 90 mln population. There are 1245 cities and towns and you just don't have enough of nukes to eliminate them all. Anyway, if you use all your missiles on Iran, Russia and China will finish America without suffering even minimal losses from US retaliation.

O.K. my mistake for using such simplistic language.

You are correct in your assessment.

So, let me break it down a little more.

The ahnihilation would be of the current fanatic leadership they have. It would also be elimination of enough military support for said leadership. We'll let that 90 million (or possibly 89.5 remaining) take care of the rest.

 

[rightwinger]

If it comes to it, regime change. And hopefully Iran can rejoin the 21st century and the civilized world.

Didn’t we learn our lesson with Iraq and Afghanistan?

 

[Foxfyre]

Oooooooooooooohhhhhhhh......but if we linked it to them (rock solid case), they'd be history.

Do they want to take the chance that we would not be able to do that. And do they want to bet our on our unwillingness to devastate them if there is any doubt?

Who knows what fanatical crazies will do? Iran has played every Presidential administration ridiculously easily for 40+ years. . .until Trump. That is why ALL of Iran's neighbors have been extremely nervous re their nuclear ambitions and are no doubt cheering, if in private, that it has been significantly set back.

Trump will only be President for another 3-1/2 years. If he doesn't neutralize a dangerous Iran, it could remain a danger to much of the world.

 

[HikerGuy83]

Trump will only be President for another 3-1/2 years. If he doesn't neutralize a dangerous Iran, it could remain a danger to much of the world.

I would agree.

And I also agree that the muslim world, in general, has to worry about Iran.

Iran, it a fit of anger, would just as likely nuke one of them.

 

[Zavulon]

The question really is...what does Iran think we'll do about it.

Yep. Thats where my favourite game "nuclear deterrence" start. Obviously, in their optimistic scenario they believe you'll just f#ck off and don't bother them (like as it happened with North Korea).

Let's say they buy a bomb. Do they think we won't know?

Of course you'll know.

If they can keep it a secret....great for them.

Tactical and operational details are more or less in secret, but the very fact of their joining to the nuclear clib will be demonstrated.

Let's say they use it against us. And we never figure it out.

For what reason should they do it?

We lose a city.

Firstly you'll lose some bases. Cities will come later if you attack their cities.

Let's say they use it against us. And we tie it to them.

They cease to exist.

No. You just don't have enough nukes to do it. And even if you had - such bombing campaign will leave your nuclear arsenals empty and you became pretty vulnerable to the attacks from Russia and/or China.

Let's say we do find out about the bomb.

1. Who will we be talking with about selling them weapons.

Dmitry Medvedev already said that there is a group of countries who are ready to give nukes to Iran. Definitely, Russia is one of those countries and Medvedev is the person to talk with. Tomorrow, Iranian envoy fly to Moscow to discuss the issue.

2. Will it be 1 or 2 days before we destroy the bomb at whatever location they have it stored and let them deal with fallout (literal).

Of course no. It's not that easy. American and Israelis intelligence capability in Iran are quite limited.

So, to answer your question...plenty.

We'll see.

 

[Zavulon]

O.K. my mistake for using such simplistic language.

You are correct in your assessment.

So, let me break it down a little more.

The ahnihilation would be of the current fanatic leadership they have. It would also be elimination of enough military support for said leadership. We'll let that 90 million (or possibly 89.5 remaining) take care of the rest.

All those 89,5 mlns will hate you and they'll elect even more fanatic leadership. You can't change people without having boots on the ground, and, quite often, you can't change people even with them.

 

[Foxfyre]

If it comes to it, regime change. And hopefully Iran can rejoin the 21st century and the civilized world.

Regime change/nation building is not in the current game plan according to Trump, Hegseth, Rubio.

Removing Iran as a dangerous threat and giving it
incentive to rejoin the 21st century and the civilized world is the ultimate goal.