Will China collapse or turn into the next economic powerhouse?

[CrusaderFrank]

According to Peter Zeihan, a geostrategic analyst China will collapse by 2030 as its population declines. The working population will go down dramatically in 10 -15 years and its output will collapse.



His data seems to be correct. Nevertheless, he seems to be ignoring two very obvious options:
1) China can increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 or 67 . This will give them a few more years to solve the productivity problem.
2) Automation.. China is installing 4 times more robots in a year than Japan and 5 times more than the United States. It is automating its industry at a neck-breaking speed.

Personally, I am not as confident as Zeihan about China's collapse.

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The World Robotics 2021 Industrial Robots report shows a record of 3 million industrial robots operating in factories around the world – an increase of 10%. Sales of new robots grew slightly at 0.5% despite the global pandemic, with 384,000 units shipped globally in 2020. This trend was...

ifr.org

I hear him a few times, and he gives me the creeps.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The NWO bet big in China and then set the USA on a path of multi-trillion debts to fight unwinnable "war on terror" Follow the money

These guys never had that much power...

 

[lennypartiv]

The USSR tried to rule the world via their military, not unlike the US. China is looking to do so economically. Americans look at Africa and for the most part think savages in grass huts not worth our time, China sees them as future customers. China is helping Brazil build a rail line from the soybean fields to the ports that China operates. While they are doing this we are throwing away trillions on place like Iraq and Afghanistan

---Is Ethiopia the New China? ---

When It Comes to Low-cost Labor, Is Ethiopia the New China?

When it comes to low-cost labor, China is looking for the next China. At the top of the list is Ethiopia.…Read More

knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu

 

[Harpy Eagle]

---Is Ethiopia the New China? ---

When It Comes to Low-cost Labor, Is Ethiopia the New China?

When it comes to low-cost labor, China is looking for the next China. At the top of the list is Ethiopia.…Read More

knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu

The place for cheap labor was always going to eventually move away from China, it always moves on as the source of the cheap labor starts to reap the gains from their efforts. Once Japan was once this source of cheap labor.

 

[gipper]

China is an economic superpower. The point is that according to Zeihan it will stop being a superpower because of a demographic collapse.
Looking at the pace at which they are automating factories I doubt Zeihan is correct. It is a race against time, but they are in the right track.

Yeah I think he’s full of shit. How does a nation of over a billion people incur a demographic collapse? It doesn’t make sense. Even if they have a huge aging population they’d still have huge numbers of younger people.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Relevant reading...

Guess What Is Keeping the US Economy Afloat


For clarity...

Seigniorage - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Mexicano]

Their citizens are "Shiny Happy People" because they have jobs. If this automation push puts them out of work, how happy will they be?

60% of the jobs in China are provided by the public sector. These are mainly service jobs, but they are largely state sponsored jobs. These jobs will not go away and will probably expand as the private sector automates.

 

[lennypartiv]

Yeah I think he’s full of shit. How does a nation of over a billion people incur a demographic collapse? It doesn’t make sense. Even if they have a huge aging population they’d still have huge numbers of younger people.

---Chinese birth rate falls to lowest in seven decades---

Chinese birth rate falls to lowest in seven decades

At the same time, China's population hit 1.4 billion in 2019 - but the gender imbalance remains.

www.bbc.com

 

[Mexicano]

Relevant reading...

Guess What Is Keeping the US Economy Afloat


For clarity...

Seigniorage - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

That article has the wrong approach to financing. In the worst-case scenario, the government can issue bonds and if no buyers are found the federal reserve can buy those bonds. Now don't take my word for it. Look at the chart: the largest bondholder is the federal reserve.

The Federal Government Has Borrowed Trillions, But Who Owns All that Debt?

The nation’s high and rising levels of debt can affect economic growth and pose a number of risks.

www.pgpf.org

 

[lennypartiv]

---Why China's falling population matters
Researchers believe the lower population growth rate could mean higher labor costs in China because of a smaller pool of available workers. A shrinking labor force could make it harder for China's government to fund its public health and welfare costs, which would suppress China's economy. "Fewer births in China will lead to economic slowdown, manufacturing recession, university bankruptcy, and will also lead to high prices and high inflation in the US and EU," Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an expert on Chinese demographics---

China's birthrate declines for first time in decades. It could have global impact.

China's birthrate declined for the first time in decades, China's National Bureau of Statistics said. It could impact the global economy.

www.usatoday.com

 

[Mexicano]

Yeah I think he’s full of shit. How does a nation of over a billion people incur a demographic collapse? It doesn’t make sense. Even if they have a huge aging population they’d still have huge numbers of younger people.

It can happen over a period of 30 years... not over a period of 10 years. And even without automation they can raise the retirement age ( currently at 60 ) to 65 , that will buy them some time.

 

[Flash]

China is already an Economic powerhouse.

The only question is how much with the US give up.

The agenda of the Leftest in the US (that have too much power) is to turn the US into Socialist shithole. That will destroy the US.

China will fill the gap as the US slides into being a shithole.

Leftest greed is the destroyer of nations.

 

[Mexicano]

---Why China's falling population matters
Researchers believe the lower population growth rate could mean higher labor costs in China because of a smaller pool of available workers. A shrinking labor force could make it harder for China's government to fund its public health and welfare costs, which would suppress China's economy. "Fewer births in China will lead to economic slowdown, manufacturing recession, university bankruptcy, and will also lead to high prices and high inflation in the US and EU," Yi Fuxian, a researcher at the University of Wisconsin-Madison and an expert on Chinese demographics---

China's birthrate declines for first time in decades. It could have global impact.

China's birthrate declined for the first time in decades, China's National Bureau of Statistics said. It could impact the global economy.

www.usatoday.com

Population decline will slow down economic growth (fewer people , fewer consumers, less production ) so far so good. Manufacturing recession ... no , I don't think so China's economy is mostly export-driven, a population decline does not imply a manufacturing recession. University bankruptcy... that doesn't make any sense, Japan has been in population decline and has not exhibited such problems, where is the causal link? The inflation in US and EU seems to be derived from the manufacturing recession. I am very suspicious of scholars that don't show the causal links of their theories.

 

[Pete7469]

The communist party of China has been in power for 74 years. I don't see any signs of weakening. Population collapse could trigger a lot of events. But nothing is certain.

Agreed, except China reformed it's economy and they have plenty of billionaires and a wealthy class outside of government thugs. The soviets only had rich gov't thugs, and they were not all that wealthy. I still say that china could be knocked down real quick by all of it's neighbors that are engaged in border conflicts with it, NOT INCLUDING RUSSIA, especially if we got involved. The military might actually drag ass just so that it doesn't look like a complete bitch slap.

 

[Mexicano]

I hear him a few times, and he gives me the creeps.

I like how he does his analysis based on resources, although most of the time I don't share his conclusions.
He also gives me the creeps sometimes, when he goes into psycho mode: in one video after the war between Russia and Ukraine started he said mockingly : Oh Germany!! Germany is sooo screwed, they need the gas for most of their industries and once that gas stops flowing they will stop being the industrial power of Europe!

wtf? He should not be cheering the demise of one of the most strategic partners and allies of the US !!!

 

[Natural Citizen]

That article has the wrong approach to financing. In the worst-case scenario, the government can issue bonds and if no buyers are found the federal reserve can buy those bonds. Now don't take my word for it. Look at the chart: the largest bondholder is the federal reserve.

The Federal Government Has Borrowed Trillions, But Who Owns All that Debt?

The nation’s high and rising levels of debt can affect economic growth and pose a number of risks.

www.pgpf.org

I know how the shell game they refer to as open market operations works, man.

 

[Mexicano]

Agreed, except China reformed it's economy and they have plenty of billionaires and a wealthy class outside of government thugs. The soviets only had rich gov't thugs, and they were not all that wealthy. I still say that china could be knocked down real quick by all of it's neighbors that are engaged in border conflicts with it, NOT INCLUDING RUSSIA, especially if we got involved. The military might actually drag ass just so that it doesn't look like a complete bitch slap.

The Chinese also have the largest industrial output of the planet. Countries, especially nuclear powers with hypersonic missiles can only be bullied to a lesser extent.
They certainly can't be bullied into collapse, unless there are some very special circumstances. The collapse in the USSR was relatively smooth thanks to Gorbachev.
I would rather go with progressive tariffs on certain items and direct government investment in key industries ( chip development, space exploration, AI , robotics).

 

[gipper]

China is already an Economic powerhouse.

The only question is how much with the US give up.

The agenda of the Leftest in the US (that have too much power) is to turn the US into Socialist shithole. That will destroy the US.

China will fill the gap as the US slides into being a shithole.

Leftest greed is the destroyer of nations.

You’re confusing leftists with capitalists. You know how the R Party loves capitalists.

 

[Flash]

You’re confusing leftists with capitalists. You know how the R Party loves capitalists.

Republicans are Democrat Light. The only thing they beleive in is big government. They are simply not quite as bat crazy about it as the Democrats.

 

[Mexicano]

I know how the shell game they refer to as open market operations works, man.

Ok , then you know the US doesn't need foreign investors to buy its debt. The worse that can happen is that the USD is no longer the reserve currency. When that happens the US will not be able to impose economic sanctions on other countries and will depreciate whenever it needs to buy foreign currency to cover its trade deficit.