Will China collapse or turn into the next economic powerhouse?

[Mexicano]

According to Peter Zeihan, a geostrategic analyst China will collapse by 2030 as its population declines. The working population will go down dramatically in 10 -15 years and its output will collapse.



His data seems to be correct. Nevertheless, he seems to be ignoring two very obvious options:
1) China can increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 or 67 . This will give them a few more years to solve the productivity problem.
2) Automation.. China is installing 4 times more robots in a year than Japan and 5 times more than the United States. It is automating its industry at a neck-breaking speed.

Personally, I am not as confident as Zeihan about China's collapse.

IFR presents World Robotics 2021 reports

The World Robotics 2021 Industrial Robots report shows a record of 3 million industrial robots operating in factories around the world – an increase of 10%. Sales of new robots grew slightly at 0.5% despite the global pandemic, with 384,000 units shipped globally in 2020. This trend was...

ifr.org

 

[candycorn]

According to Peter Zeihan, a geostrategic analyst China will collapse by 2030 as its population declines. The working population will go down dramatically in 10 -15 years and its output will collapse.



His data seems to be correct. Nevertheless, he seems to be ignoring two very obvious options:
1) China can increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 or 67 . This will give them a few more years to solve the productivity problem.
2) Automation.. China is installing 4 times more robots in a year than Japan and 5 times more than the United States. It is automating its industry at a neck-breaking speed.

Personally, I am not as confident as Zeihan about China's collapse.

IFR presents World Robotics 2021 reports

The World Robotics 2021 Industrial Robots report shows a record of 3 million industrial robots operating in factories around the world – an increase of 10%. Sales of new robots grew slightly at 0.5% despite the global pandemic, with 384,000 units shipped globally in 2020. This trend was...

ifr.org

The problem with being the low-cost provider of goods and/or services is that you don't especially add value; you just offer a lower cost. Eventually your costs rise over time. When they do, you stand the risk of being undercut. They were smart to try to diversify their offerings but just like they undercut Japan; they will be undercut by someone else.

 

[lennypartiv]

China got it right and wrong at the same time.

What it got right was eliminating environmental laws. Those are job killers. America needs to follow China's lead there.

What they got wrong was the one child policy. International businesses are now looking at Vietnam etc. as alternatives to China.

 

[gipper]

According to Peter Zeihan, a geostrategic analyst China will collapse by 2030 as its population declines. The working population will go down dramatically in 10 -15 years and its output will collapse.



His data seems to be correct. Nevertheless, he seems to be ignoring two very obvious options:
1) China can increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 or 67 . This will give them a few more years to solve the productivity problem.
2) Automation.. China is installing 4 times more robots in a year than Japan and 5 times more than the United States. It is automating its industry at a neck-breaking speed.

Personally, I am not as confident as Zeihan about China's collapse.

IFR presents World Robotics 2021 reports

The World Robotics 2021 Industrial Robots report shows a record of 3 million industrial robots operating in factories around the world – an increase of 10%. Sales of new robots grew slightly at 0.5% despite the global pandemic, with 384,000 units shipped globally in 2020. This trend was...

ifr.org

Your title is wrong. China is the world’s economic powerhouse. It exceeds the US in nearly every economic factor. Plus it isn’t $30 trillion in debt.

Read the column at the link below. It will disavow you of the CIA propaganda pushed by Zeihan.


Look carefully at the chart above. What do you see?
You see the development of a high-speed rail system that is unrivaled anywhere on earth. You see the actualization of plan to connect all parts of the country with modern-day infrastructure that reduces shipping costs, improves mobility and increases profitability. You see a vision of the 21st century in which state-directed capital links rural populations with urban centers lifting standards of living across the board. You see an expression of a new economic model that has lifted 800 million people out of poverty while paving the way for global economic integration. You see an industrial juggernaut expanding in all directions while laying the groundwork for a new century of economic integration, accelerated development and shared prosperity.
Is there a high-speed rail system in the United States that is comparable to what we see in China today?
No, there isn’t. So far, less than 50 miles of high-speed rail has been built in the United States. (“Amtrak’s Acela, which reaches 150 mph over 49.9 miles of track, is the US’s only high-speed rail service.”) As everyone knows, America’s transportation grid is obsolete and in a shambles.
But, why? Why is the United States so far behind China in the development of critical infrastructure?

It’s because China’s state-led model is vastly superior to America’s “carpetbagger” model. In China, the government is directly involved in the operation of the economy, which means that it subsidizes those industries that enhance growth and spur development. In contrast, American capitalism is a savage free-for-all in which private owners are able to divert great sums of money into unproductive stock buybacks and other scams that do nothing to create jobs or strengthen the economy. Since 2009 US corporations have spent more than $7 trillion on stock buybacks which is an activity that boosts payouts to rich shareholders but fails to produce anything of material value.



In short, the Chinese state-led model is rapidly overtaking the US in virtually every area of industry and commerce, and its success is largely attributable to the fact that the government is free to align its reinvestment strategy with its vision of the future. That allows the state to ignore the short-term profitability of its various projects provided they lay the groundwork for a stronger and more expansive economy in the years ahead. Chinese reformer Chen Yun called this phenom the “birdcage economy”, which means the economy can “fly freely” within the confines of the broader political system. In other words, the Chinese leadership sees the economy as an instrument for achieving their collective vision for the future.
The One Chart That Explains Everything

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Plus it isn’t $30 trillion in debt.

It is even more in debt than that.

Chinaâs Overwhelming Debt Burden Points To Still Deeper Problems

Communist management and demographic imbalances are set to deepen China’s financial troubles.

www.forbes.com

The size of China’s debt problem is truly staggering. At last measure, debt of all sorts – public and private and in all sectors of the economy — amounted to the equivalent of $51.9 trillion, almost three times the size of China’s economy as measured by the country’s gross domestic product.


The difference is their debt is being accumulated to help them in the future, while ours us being built upon to hold on to our last grasp as the preeminent power in the world with no look to the future.

 

[Blaster]

The United States is being played by China.

 

[initforme]

China got it right and wrong at the same time.

What it got right was eliminating environmental laws. Those are job killers. America needs to follow China's lead there.

What they got wrong was the one child policy. International businesses are now looking at Vietnam etc. as alternatives to China.

Yes we all want air we cannot safely breathe. Your posts are funny.

 

[lennypartiv]

Hey gipper, I wonder how much China spent on these "ghost cities."

Inside The Ghost Cities Of China That Feel Like An Eerie, Futuristic Dystopia

China's rapid urbanization has backfired, leaving behind enormous — and uninhabited — cities.

allthatsinteresting.com

 

[lennypartiv]

Another "ghost town" story which discusses the debt involved in these projects.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/14/business/evergrande-china-property-ghost-towns-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Mac-7]

The problem with being the low-cost provider of goods and/or services is that you don't especially add value; you just offer a lower cost. Eventually your costs rise over time. When they do, you stand the risk of being undercut. They were smart to try to diversify their offerings but just like they undercut Japan; they will be undercut by someone else.

Co took he Dr Fauci approach to Covid and shut down china’s economy for 2 1/2 years

In addition he prematurely tried to bully other nation through trade and that backfired

Combined with china's demographic situation it all adds up china NOT taking over the world as globalists expected

 

[Pete7469]

Centralized authoritarian governments always collapse fairly quick. The soviets didn't even last 80 years.

 

[Mexicano]

Your title is wrong. China is the world’s economic powerhouse. It exceeds the US in nearly every economic factor. Plus it isn’t $30 trillion in debt.

Read the column at the link below. It will disavow you of the CIA propaganda pushed by Zeihan.


Look carefully at the chart above. What do you see?
You see the development of a high-speed rail system that is unrivaled anywhere on earth. You see the actualization of plan to connect all parts of the country with modern-day infrastructure that reduces shipping costs, improves mobility and increases profitability. You see a vision of the 21st century in which state-directed capital links rural populations with urban centers lifting standards of living across the board. You see an expression of a new economic model that has lifted 800 million people out of poverty while paving the way for global economic integration. You see an industrial juggernaut expanding in all directions while laying the groundwork for a new century of economic integration, accelerated development and shared prosperity.
Is there a high-speed rail system in the United States that is comparable to what we see in China today?
No, there isn’t. So far, less than 50 miles of high-speed rail has been built in the United States. (“Amtrak’s Acela, which reaches 150 mph over 49.9 miles of track, is the US’s only high-speed rail service.”) As everyone knows, America’s transportation grid is obsolete and in a shambles.
But, why? Why is the United States so far behind China in the development of critical infrastructure?

It’s because China’s state-led model is vastly superior to America’s “carpetbagger” model. In China, the government is directly involved in the operation of the economy, which means that it subsidizes those industries that enhance growth and spur development. In contrast, American capitalism is a savage free-for-all in which private owners are able to divert great sums of money into unproductive stock buybacks and other scams that do nothing to create jobs or strengthen the economy. Since 2009 US corporations have spent more than $7 trillion on stock buybacks which is an activity that boosts payouts to rich shareholders but fails to produce anything of material value.



In short, the Chinese state-led model is rapidly overtaking the US in virtually every area of industry and commerce, and its success is largely attributable to the fact that the government is free to align its reinvestment strategy with its vision of the future. That allows the state to ignore the short-term profitability of its various projects provided they lay the groundwork for a stronger and more expansive economy in the years ahead. Chinese reformer Chen Yun called this phenom the “birdcage economy”, which means the economy can “fly freely” within the confines of the broader political system. In other words, the Chinese leadership sees the economy as an instrument for achieving their collective vision for the future.
The One Chart That Explains Everything

China is an economic superpower. The point is that according to Zeihan it will stop being a superpower because of a demographic collapse.
Looking at the pace at which they are automating factories I doubt Zeihan is correct. It is a race against time, but they are in the right track.

 

[Mexicano]

Centralized authoritarian governments always collapse fairly quick. The soviets didn't even last 80 years.

The communist party of China has been in power for 74 years. I don't see any signs of weakening. Population collapse could trigger a lot of events. But nothing is certain.

 

[lennypartiv]

The communist party of China has been in power for 74 years. I don't see any signs of weakening. Population collapse could trigger a lot of events. But nothing is certain.

Their citizens are "Shiny Happy People" because they have jobs. If this automation push puts them out of work, how happy will they be?

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Their citizens are "Shiny Happy People" because they have jobs. If this automation push puts them out of work, how happy will they be?

The automation push helps alleviate their declining population growth.

 

[lennypartiv]

The automation push helps alleviate their declining population growth.

Depends which happens first.

 

[Mexicano]

It is even more in debt than that.

Chinaâs Overwhelming Debt Burden Points To Still Deeper Problems

Communist management and demographic imbalances are set to deepen China’s financial troubles.

www.forbes.com

The size of China’s debt problem is truly staggering. At last measure, debt of all sorts – public and private and in all sectors of the economy — amounted to the equivalent of $51.9 trillion, almost three times the size of China’s economy as measured by the country’s gross domestic product.


The difference is their debt is being accumulated to help them in the future, while ours us being built upon to hold on to our last grasp as the preeminent power in the world with no look to the future.

Public debt is mostly irrelevant: the government can issue as much debt as it needs. Add to that the fact that China's banks are state-owned...it is just like passing money from one pocket to another.

 

[lennypartiv]

Public debt is mostly irrelevant: the government can issue as much debt as it needs. Add to that the fact that China's banks are state-owned...it is just like passing money from one pocket to another.

The USSR was just like that before it collapsed.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Your title is wrong. China is the world’s economic powerhouse. It exceeds the US in nearly every economic factor. Plus it isn’t $30 trillion in debt.

Read the column at the link below. It will disavow you of the CIA propaganda pushed by Zeihan.


Look carefully at the chart above. What do you see?
You see the development of a high-speed rail system that is unrivaled anywhere on earth. You see the actualization of plan to connect all parts of the country with modern-day infrastructure that reduces shipping costs, improves mobility and increases profitability. You see a vision of the 21st century in which state-directed capital links rural populations with urban centers lifting standards of living across the board. You see an expression of a new economic model that has lifted 800 million people out of poverty while paving the way for global economic integration. You see an industrial juggernaut expanding in all directions while laying the groundwork for a new century of economic integration, accelerated development and shared prosperity.
Is there a high-speed rail system in the United States that is comparable to what we see in China today?
No, there isn’t. So far, less than 50 miles of high-speed rail has been built in the United States. (“Amtrak’s Acela, which reaches 150 mph over 49.9 miles of track, is the US’s only high-speed rail service.”) As everyone knows, America’s transportation grid is obsolete and in a shambles.
But, why? Why is the United States so far behind China in the development of critical infrastructure?

It’s because China’s state-led model is vastly superior to America’s “carpetbagger” model. In China, the government is directly involved in the operation of the economy, which means that it subsidizes those industries that enhance growth and spur development. In contrast, American capitalism is a savage free-for-all in which private owners are able to divert great sums of money into unproductive stock buybacks and other scams that do nothing to create jobs or strengthen the economy. Since 2009 US corporations have spent more than $7 trillion on stock buybacks which is an activity that boosts payouts to rich shareholders but fails to produce anything of material value.



In short, the Chinese state-led model is rapidly overtaking the US in virtually every area of industry and commerce, and its success is largely attributable to the fact that the government is free to align its reinvestment strategy with its vision of the future. That allows the state to ignore the short-term profitability of its various projects provided they lay the groundwork for a stronger and more expansive economy in the years ahead. Chinese reformer Chen Yun called this phenom the “birdcage economy”, which means the economy can “fly freely” within the confines of the broader political system. In other words, the Chinese leadership sees the economy as an instrument for achieving their collective vision for the future.
The One Chart That Explains Everything

The NWO bet big in China and then set the USA on a path of multi-trillion debts to fight unwinnable "war on terror" Follow the money

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The USSR was just like that before it collapsed.

The USSR tried to rule the world via their military, not unlike the US. China is looking to do so economically. Americans look at Africa and for the most part think savages in grass huts not worth our time, China sees them as future customers. China is helping Brazil build a rail line from the soybean fields to the ports that China operates. While they are doing this we are throwing away trillions on place like Iraq and Afghanistan