What will the "third wave" bring?

[HistoryBefore67]

I'm starting to wonder if what we're seeing in Egypt is part of a pattern that will become commonplace in the "Arab Spring."

The first wave seems to be a popular uprising against the old guard, which is essentially totalitarian. While there is a "grass roots" aspect to this wave, it is bolstered by Islamist forces.

The second wave, perhaps, is what we are seeing in Egypt. It appears that the people there have perceived the pendulum as having swung too far in the other direction, prompting a need for a further correction.

If my perception is right, the question is, what is the "third wave"? Where is the "center" that will ultimately emerge to form a stable leadership?

I don't know the answer. I don't know that anyone does.

The optimist in me, though, hopes that the center will be democratic, largely secular, and mindful of the importance of stability within the region.

When President Obama and others termed the "first wave" as an "Arab Spring," suggesting that it was, in and of itself, a positive movement, they were being dangerously naive.

But is it naive to hope that the "third wave" could bring about a positive new paradigm?

I'm generally a cynic, so its hard for me to find optimism in these things. But, could there be a glimmer of hope here?

 

[Roudy]

I'm starting to wonder if what we're seeing in Egypt is part of a pattern that will become commonplace in the "Arab Spring."

The first wave seems to be a popular uprising against the old guard, which is essentially totalitarian. While there is a "grass roots" aspect to this wave, it is bolstered by Islamist forces.

The second wave, perhaps, is what we are seeing in Egypt. It appears that the people there have perceived the pendulum as having swung too far in the other direction, prompting a need for a further correction.

If my perception is right, the question is, what is the "third wave"? Where is the "center" that will ultimately emerge to form a stable leadership?

I don't know the answer. I don't know that anyone does.

The optimist in me, though, hopes that the center will be democratic, largely secular, and mindful of the importance of stability within the region.

When President Obama and others termed the "first wave" as an "Arab Spring," suggesting that it was, in and of itself, a positive movement, they were being dangerously naive.

But is it naive to hope that the "third wave" could bring about a positive new paradigm?

I'm generally a cynic, so its hard for me to find optimism in these things. But, could there be a glimmer of hope here?

Once the dust settles, I believe many of these Arab countries (and even Iran and Turkey possibly) undergoing the Arab Spring will be cut up into smaller countries or autonomous regions. And eventually, Jordan, Syria, and Egypt may contribute to the formation of a so called Arab Palestine.