What the election showed

[sartre play]

One funny thing, Republicans elected a dead whore house owner in Nevada, talk about the negative side of voting straight party line.

 

[martybegan]

Anyone who thinks they can predict demographics and the political leanings of a group 20 to 30 years in the future is fooling themselves.

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

Like the big recession won't hit before that. Trillion dollar deficit in this fiscal year?, more trade wars, The looming disaster at the border, etc etc etc

recessions happen all the time, not sure if there are signs of one in the next two years.

And the border thing will hurt Dems more than Republicans.

Now a city like Chicago defaulting would be entirely something else, and 100% the fault of the Democratic Party.

 

[bendog]

Hispanics should be a fertile field for the gop. However, imo what we are seeing is diametrically opposing social views even among white people in rural flyover territory compared to urban post-industrial. And whether the gop has kissed goodbye for over a generation to Hispanics in Tex will be a question.

Anyone who thinks they can predict demographics and the political leanings of a group 20 to 30 years in the future is fooling themselves.

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

The question is what happens to the gop when Trump is gone. And I doubt Trump will tax Ala to pay for Chi's default.

In short, Trump cannot expand his base, and his base is both dying and moving to urban areas.

 

[martybegan]

Anyone who thinks they can predict demographics and the political leanings of a group 20 to 30 years in the future is fooling themselves.

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

The question is what happens to the gop when Trump is gone. And I doubt Trump will tax Ala to pay for Chi's default.

In short, Trump cannot expand his base, and his base is both dying or moving to urban areas.

Why do you think he is trying to make inroads with black america?

Even if he were to switch over 20% of the vote, it would make his situation more secure.

 

[candycorn]

The President's ability to win the Senate will mean that he will be able to really work on getting his appointments to the court confirmed.

This is a huge point of positivity, one of the things that a lot of folks love about Trump.


Also, he won't have to worry about the dam infrastructure, the Dems don't want it so they can be blamed.

Big win for Republicans especially if Thomas and Ginsberg check out
Republicans are setting up for the day they no longer can win in Congress and the White House. They are stacking courts with young conservatives at all levels that will invalidate Democratic legislation over trivial issues for decades

Haven't progressives been saying the whole "You will never win another election again) for about 2 decades now?

And the only legislation most of them will "invalidate" will be progressive attempts at national level morality plays, and of course, gutting the 1st and 2nd amendment.

Right now, Republicans rule from a minority in the House, Senate and White House
Long term demographics with Hispanics, women and young voters are not in their favor. Neither are increasing voter turnouts.

Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are vigorously stacking the courts for the day they can no longer execute minority rule

Not sure about the importance of stacking the courts. I think the judicial body has a way of moderating itself over time.

The writing on the wall for the electoral landscape is clear however. I would be using Arizona but we don’t have a winner yet so I’ll look at Texas...

True. The 2018 midterms saw the following tallies:

View attachment 227298

The figures to focus on are the 4,003,513 for Beto and the year 2018; a Midterm election where participation is usually lower than the general election. I’ve actually seen higher totals for O’Rourke than what Wikipedia is reporting—the AP says he got 12,000 votes more.

Now consider this….

View attachment 227297

Beto received General Election type numbers in a Midterm election.

So that is a hopeful trend for whomever runs for Senate in 2020 against Cornyn.

Will The dems have that much $$ to throw at a single Senate race in 2020?

They didn’t have a “single” Senate race focus this time around. Will they have it? Sure. Will they do it? Who knows.

 

[martybegan]

Big win for Republicans especially if Thomas and Ginsberg check out
Republicans are setting up for the day they no longer can win in Congress and the White House. They are stacking courts with young conservatives at all levels that will invalidate Democratic legislation over trivial issues for decades

Haven't progressives been saying the whole "You will never win another election again) for about 2 decades now?

And the only legislation most of them will "invalidate" will be progressive attempts at national level morality plays, and of course, gutting the 1st and 2nd amendment.

Right now, Republicans rule from a minority in the House, Senate and White House
Long term demographics with Hispanics, women and young voters are not in their favor. Neither are increasing voter turnouts.

Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are vigorously stacking the courts for the day they can no longer execute minority rule

Not sure about the importance of stacking the courts. I think the judicial body has a way of moderating itself over time.

The writing on the wall for the electoral landscape is clear however. I would be using Arizona but we don’t have a winner yet so I’ll look at Texas...

True. The 2018 midterms saw the following tallies:

View attachment 227298

The figures to focus on are the 4,003,513 for Beto and the year 2018; a Midterm election where participation is usually lower than the general election. I’ve actually seen higher totals for O’Rourke than what Wikipedia is reporting—the AP says he got 12,000 votes more.

Now consider this….

View attachment 227297

Beto received General Election type numbers in a Midterm election.

So that is a hopeful trend for whomever runs for Senate in 2020 against Cornyn.

Will The dems have that much $$ to throw at a single Senate race in 2020?

They didn’t have a “single” Senate race focus this time around. Will they have it? Sure. Will they do it? Who knows.

It was the third most expensive race but one of the most outlying chances at a pickup. It would have only mattered if Dems ran the table on the other close races.

 

[bendog]

2018 total senate texas votes were around 8,250,000. 2012 were 7,850,000. O"Rourke was funded primarily by direct donors, I think. That was probably the race of the night, and Trumpism swayed it. Cruz got more gop votes despite being disliked by the party elite. And O'Rourke actually had coattails down ballot where Trumpism doesn't appear to be as much a factor.

Nelson wouldn't have even been in the running but for Gillum, who underperformed his poll numbers. The Bradley effect? Dunno.

The dem party sank a lot of $ into Missouri.

Obama had less pull in red states than Trump. Gee. LOL

And the trend appears to continue. Red states lose population by proportion, and in some cases in actual bodies. Conversely, Blue states gain. But a state has two senators even if it only has one toothless person and a mule. So the dems will not control the senate unless some Red states - Tex, Fl Ga that have urban areas and multinational employers- go blue. But the population shifts will cost Red Jesusland states Representatives compared to Blue States (plus places like Tex, Fl Ga and AZ that gain population. But all of those states are gerrymandered by gopers. That may be the most significant outcome of last night.

 

[rightwinger]

Right now, Republicans rule from a minority in the House, Senate and White House
Long term demographics with Hispanics, women and young voters are not in their favor. Neither are increasing voter turnouts.

Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are vigorously stacking the courts for the day they can no longer execute minority rule

You fall for the classic mistake of assuming no political shift in these groups, and as usual assuming they are all a monolithic block.

Hispanics should be a fertile field for the gop. However, imo what we are seeing is diametrically opposing social views even among white people in rural flyover territory compared to urban post-industrial. And whether the gop has kissed goodbye for over a generation to Hispanics in Tex will be a question.

Anyone who thinks they can predict demographics and the political leanings of a group 20 to 30 years in the future is fooling themselves.

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

And will Racists continue to vote Republican?

 

[rightwinger]

Haven't progressives been saying the whole "You will never win another election again) for about 2 decades now?

And the only legislation most of them will "invalidate" will be progressive attempts at national level morality plays, and of course, gutting the 1st and 2nd amendment.

Right now, Republicans rule from a minority in the House, Senate and White House
Long term demographics with Hispanics, women and young voters are not in their favor. Neither are increasing voter turnouts.

Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are vigorously stacking the courts for the day they can no longer execute minority rule

Not sure about the importance of stacking the courts. I think the judicial body has a way of moderating itself over time.

The writing on the wall for the electoral landscape is clear however. I would be using Arizona but we don’t have a winner yet so I’ll look at Texas...

True. The 2018 midterms saw the following tallies:

View attachment 227298

The figures to focus on are the 4,003,513 for Beto and the year 2018; a Midterm election where participation is usually lower than the general election. I’ve actually seen higher totals for O’Rourke than what Wikipedia is reporting—the AP says he got 12,000 votes more.

Now consider this….

View attachment 227297

Beto received General Election type numbers in a Midterm election.

So that is a hopeful trend for whomever runs for Senate in 2020 against Cornyn.

Will The dems have that much $$ to throw at a single Senate race in 2020?

They didn’t have a “single” Senate race focus this time around. Will they have it? Sure. Will they do it? Who knows.

It was the third most expensive race but one of the most outlying chances at a pickup. It would have only mattered if Dems ran the table on the other close races.

It would have been nice if Dems had run the close races

But the House will do for now

 

[rightwinger]

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

Like the big recession won't hit before that. Trillion dollar deficit in this fiscal year?, more trade wars, The looming disaster at the border, etc etc etc

recessions happen all the time, not sure if there are signs of one in the next two years.

And the border thing will hurt Dems more than Republicans.

Now a city like Chicago defaulting would be entirely something else, and 100% the fault of the Democratic Party.

I don’t think most Americans lose much sleep over the border
Even those who live near it don’t want a wall

 

[basquebromance]

“This election marks the largest Senate gains for a president's party in a first midterm election since at least President Kennedy’s in 1962. There have been only 4 midterm elections since 1934 in which a president’s party has gained even a single Senate seat.”

 

[rightwinger]

“This election marks the largest Senate gains for a president's party in a first midterm election since at least President Kennedy’s in 1962. There have been only 4 midterm elections since 1934 in which a president’s party has gained even a single Senate seat.”

Fluke

Dems defended 26 seats
Republicans defended 9

Not hard to pick up seats

 

[martybegan]

You fall for the classic mistake of assuming no political shift in these groups, and as usual assuming they are all a monolithic block.

Hispanics should be a fertile field for the gop. However, imo what we are seeing is diametrically opposing social views even among white people in rural flyover territory compared to urban post-industrial. And whether the gop has kissed goodbye for over a generation to Hispanics in Tex will be a question.

Anyone who thinks they can predict demographics and the political leanings of a group 20 to 30 years in the future is fooling themselves.

yes, but it's about questioning how the gop will respond to a demographic group. And as you posted, Hispanics are not a monolithic group. But Generally, in the SE while illegal immigration is not supported, neither is Trumpism.

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

And will Racists continue to vote Republican?

The white ones maybe, the black ones will continue to vote democrat.

 

[martybegan]

Right now, Republicans rule from a minority in the House, Senate and White House
Long term demographics with Hispanics, women and young voters are not in their favor. Neither are increasing voter turnouts.

Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are vigorously stacking the courts for the day they can no longer execute minority rule

Not sure about the importance of stacking the courts. I think the judicial body has a way of moderating itself over time.

The writing on the wall for the electoral landscape is clear however. I would be using Arizona but we don’t have a winner yet so I’ll look at Texas...

True. The 2018 midterms saw the following tallies:

View attachment 227298

The figures to focus on are the 4,003,513 for Beto and the year 2018; a Midterm election where participation is usually lower than the general election. I’ve actually seen higher totals for O’Rourke than what Wikipedia is reporting—the AP says he got 12,000 votes more.

Now consider this….

View attachment 227297

Beto received General Election type numbers in a Midterm election.

So that is a hopeful trend for whomever runs for Senate in 2020 against Cornyn.

Will The dems have that much $$ to throw at a single Senate race in 2020?

They didn’t have a “single” Senate race focus this time around. Will they have it? Sure. Will they do it? Who knows.

It was the third most expensive race but one of the most outlying chances at a pickup. It would have only mattered if Dems ran the table on the other close races.

It would have been nice if Dems had run the close races

But the House will do for now

They did, and it still didn't help.

 

[martybegan]

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

Like the big recession won't hit before that. Trillion dollar deficit in this fiscal year?, more trade wars, The looming disaster at the border, etc etc etc

recessions happen all the time, not sure if there are signs of one in the next two years.

And the border thing will hurt Dems more than Republicans.

Now a city like Chicago defaulting would be entirely something else, and 100% the fault of the Democratic Party.

I don’t think most Americans lose much sleep over the border
Even those who live near it don’t want a wall

Says a coastal elitist douchebag....

 

[bendog]

The real question is will the black vote stop being monolithic, will women continue to divide on color and marital status lines, and will millenials go through the same retreat from progressiveness when they have kids and a mortgage.

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

Like the big recession won't hit before that. Trillion dollar deficit in this fiscal year?, more trade wars, The looming disaster at the border, etc etc etc

recessions happen all the time, not sure if there are signs of one in the next two years.

And the border thing will hurt Dems more than Republicans.

Now a city like Chicago defaulting would be entirely something else, and 100% the fault of the Democratic Party.

I don’t think most Americans lose much sleep over the border
Even those who live near it don’t want a wall

Without immigration (and Kavenaugh) the dems take the Senate last night. Trump does NOT want a wall built. And he sure as hell doesn't want comprehensive reform that actually denies illegals jobs. Now a photo op in front of some big beautiful bricks .... that's the ticket.

 

[Issa]

1. Democrats did a great organizational job to take a severely Gerrymandered House
2. Trump did a great job in organizing his base to increase the number of Senate seats
3. Republicans did what is necessary to win close contests
4. Republicans held their stronghold in the South but Dems showed that formerly solid Red states like Georgia, Texas and Arizona are up for grabs
5. For 2020, Florida and Ohio still showed they are leaning red but Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin drifted back to blue

Anyone know what the total vote each party got in these elections?

 

[martybegan]

I don't think women are dividing on marital status lines. They are dividing on socio econ lines ... and geographical. And Millenials are equally put off by Trumpism as are Latinos .. but neither may vote.

We are becoming increasingly divided as we become more diverse.

The other question is what happens after Trump, either in 2021 or 2025.

One thing dems have to pray doesn't happen is a large municipal default in one of the big 5 or so cities. If that happens and either pensions get cut, or taxes go through the roof with cut services, and then we will see if the urban population stays in the Dem pocket.

Like the big recession won't hit before that. Trillion dollar deficit in this fiscal year?, more trade wars, The looming disaster at the border, etc etc etc

recessions happen all the time, not sure if there are signs of one in the next two years.

And the border thing will hurt Dems more than Republicans.

Now a city like Chicago defaulting would be entirely something else, and 100% the fault of the Democratic Party.

I don’t think most Americans lose much sleep over the border
Even those who live near it don’t want a wall

Without immigration (and Kavenaugh) the dems take the Senate last night. Trump does NOT want a wall built. And he sure as hell doesn't want comprehensive reform that actually denies illegals jobs. Now a photo op in front of some big beautiful bricks .... that's the ticket.

Building it would cement his base, as well as bring the other side to new levels of frenzy.

The wall funding was torpedoed mostly by the corporate side of the GOP with the Dems only too glad to help.

 

[basquebromance]

“This election marks the largest Senate gains for a president's party in a first midterm election since at least President Kennedy’s in 1962. There have been only 4 midterm elections since 1934 in which a president’s party has gained even a single Senate seat.”

Fluke

Dems defended 26 seats
Republicans defended 9

Not hard to pick up seats

"While losing the house is a setback, the average President loses 37 seats in his first midterm

Obama lost 63, Clinton lost 53, Trump lost 26

Advancing in the Senate by 5 seats is historic, and shows the movement is stronger than ever!"

 

[basquebromance]

Today: nap

Tomorrow: 2020 starts