Ukraine, Who Knows!

[JimofPennsylvan]

It would be really nice if the situation with Ukraine were better in a lot of areas. Reports are that the indigenous people of Crimea, the Tatars, are planning to boycott the referendum on Crimea's secession from Ukraine this Sunday. This is a mistake voting boycotts are almost always a bad idea take for instance the Sunni Iraqi boycotts of elections early in the current country of Iraq's early history these Sunnis interests ended up being hurt by Iraqi Shiites who got more political power because of the boycott. Tatar leaders should fully support and encourage their people to vote on the referendum but to vote against secession because each registered vote against secession is proof to the world that the Russian proxies in Crimea are doing the wrong thing with this referendum. Anti-secession Crimeans don't have to win this referendum vote by a long shot to win the world public opinion consensus; if there is a significant number of no votes coupled with the already established voting improprieties like widespread confiscation of Crimeans passports and identification cards along with persecution of Crimeans speaking against secession the referendum will be seen as illegitimate and it will further brand Russia as stealing the Crimea region. Tatar leaders should remember that many ethnic Russian Crimeans like many actual Russians hate Vladimir Putin they view him as anti-democratic and corrupt so many ethnic Russians Crimeans could vote no on secession this Sunday so their peoples effort in voting is not foolish. The U.S. government along with the European government should encourage Crimeans to vote in this Sunday's referendum but just vote no to secession!


It was reported in the U.S. media today because of the incompetence of the prior Russian puppet president of Ukraine, Mr. Yanukovych, the country of Ukraine only has six-thousand combat ready troops to field against an invading Russian army, that is really really disillusioning. The United States government should stop with the petty help to the Ukranian people of a billion dollar loan guarantee and give them a foreign aid package of like six billion dollars all monies restricted to spending on Ukrainian military and security forces so that the Ukranian people can put in place a formidable deterrent to Russia against them invading the non-peninsula region of Ukraine. I know that a lot of Americans especially national politicians are going to hem and haw when they hear such a large figure but this types of dollar figure is needed to buy the number of tanks, artillery cannons and ammunition for these weapons and the like that this country needs if it is going to make a strong deterrent against a Putin invasion remember the country of Ukraine is a big country so a big defense apparatus will be needed to protect it. The American people need to remember this dollar amount is chicken feed to what it will cost America if Russia invades and takes over the non-peninsula portion of Ukraine. If such a development happens at minimum America is going to have to pull out all the stops to hurt Russia nonmilitarily because American and all European Union countries cannot let such a European sovereignty violation stand in this day and age. The only way to meaningfully hurt Russia nonmilitarily is to hurt Russia economically and the only way to do this is to significantly reduce their oil and natural gas sales and the only way for the U.S. to achieve this is to expedite the construction of Liquified Natural Gas export terminals in the United States and approve more licenses for new LNG export terminals in the U.S so U.S. natural gas can be delivered to markets in Europe and replace Russia produced natural gas sold there. This coupled with the fact that natural gas fields deplete relatively quickly means that the price of natural gas in the U.S. will speedily rise and approach world market prices relatively quickly hurting the expansion of manufacturing in the U.S. that has resulted and would have continued from cheap natural gas in the U.S. thus dramatically hurting tax receipts coming into the Federal treasury making six billion in foreign aid to Ukraine look like peanuts!

 

[Katzndogz]

The majority of Ukraine is pro Russian. obama will let Russia have Crimea as Russian territory because he cannot do anything else. There is no support in Europe to stop Russia. We have no interest in the region except for a generalized position that we just don't like Russia or Russians. Europe does not share that generalized position. They've lived with Russia as a next door neighbor for thousands of years, all through the cold war that was essentially between Russia and the US with Europe not terribly interested. While the Ukraine may not have enough money to hire troops to keep Ukranine out of Russian hands, that's not the reason they aren't putting up a fight. They don't want to put up a fight. Troops to fight Russia could only be found outside of Ukraine and they would be fighting the people of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are putting up quite a fight now, to keep the EU out. They have the guns to put up a good fight too.

It is attractive to increase domestic production of oil and natural gas to supply Europe to really hurt Russia. And, it would. However Europe is not willing to pay the shipping costs to bring American oil and gas product to Europe. Even if we sell it for less than the costs of production and the American taxpayer picking up the shortfall, Europe will not pay for shipping. Aghast, American politicians look at this tightening of purse strings and say "Aren't you willing to sacrifice something to keep Russia from expanding?" The answer is a resounding no. Europeans aren't willing to see their energy costs significantly increase just to let the US stick it to Russia. Realistically, we cannot beat Russia's prices AND provide free transportation. We would be bankrupt in six months or less.

There is nothing Europe or the United States can do to stop the self determination of the people in the Ukraine. They simply see themselves as Russian. Most of them don't want to be part of Europe and certainly will not agree to Europe's social policies. obama promised much without ever asking if he had the support to back it up. The proper course of action is to let obama be humiliated and shoved off in a corner.

 

[waltky]

Fighting on the uptick in Ukraine despite truce

Fighting surging in Ukraine despite truce
Wed, Feb 01, 2017 - A sudden surge in clashes between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels killed at least seven people on Monday despite a tattered truce in Ukraine’s war-scarred east.

The overall death toll reported for the past two days rose to 12 after the bloodiest outburst of violence since the former Soviet republic and its foes last month agreed an “indefinite” ceasefire. The fighting came as Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko urged German Chancellor Angela Merkel to step up economic sanctions against Moscow and fears grew in Kiev that US support could wane should US President Donald Trump draw closer to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Poroshenko cut short his visit to Berlin to meet with Merkel after hearing news of the deaths, his spokesman said. “Since Sunday, there have been continuing clashes and heavy attacks on our positions,” Ukraine’s 72nd army brigade spokeswoman Olena Mokrynchuk told reproters. The military in Kiev said three of its soldiers had died overnight. A reporter in the town of Avdiivka near the rebel’s capital, Donetsk, saw Kiev troops capture three rebels on Monday. Two of them later died of their wounds. Electricity has been off since Sunday last week and water supplies are sporadic in Avdiivka amid the shelling and gunfire.

The separatists also reported two civilians deaths from Ukrainian fire around Donetsk. The bloodshed put at risk yet another attempt by mediators to end one of Europe’s bloodiest conflicts since the 1990s Balkans wars. Before meeting with Merkel, Poroshenko had told reporters: “We are certain that today we need decisive and united action that can motivate Russia to sit at the negotiating table and fully implement the Minsk agreements — particularly its security component — to stop civilians from dying.” “We believe that not only should the sanctions be maintained, but they should be intensified as well,” he added.

Merkel said she found the situation “worrying,” but gave no indication on whether she intended to add to the pressure on Putin. Ukraine fears that staunch support from the US could now dry up if Trump makes good on his campaign pledge to improve ties with Moscow. The sides have since agreed to a series of temporary ceasefires and an “indefinite” one on Dec. 23 last year, but none have been respected. The violence had died down considerably until Sunday and it was not immediately clear what provoked the rebel attack.

Fighting surging in Ukraine despite truce - Taipei Times

 

[waltky]

Ukraine in cahoots with No. Korea...

North Korea missile parts linked to Ukraine
14 Aug.`17 - Pyongyang said to have used modified version of Russian-designed missile engine

North Korea’s dramatic leap forward in ballistic missile capability has its origins far beyond the Korean peninsula, experts believe: in Russian technology that may have been acquired from a factory near Ukraine’s restive east, although the timing for any transfers is not clear. Military analysts and western intelligence agencies have been scrambling to explain Pyongyang’s string of successful long-range test firings, which have escalated tensions and triggered a war of words with Washington. North Korea’s Hwasong-14 missile, tested for the first time, twice, last month, is unlike anything that has preceded it in the hermit state’s ballistic arsenal: its purported range makes it capable of striking the continental US.

A series of provocative missile tests has already shown the US territory of Guam, home to a military base, to be credibly within range of Pyongyang’s latest rockets. Such advances stand against a patchy record. The dictatorship’s previous efforts to develop its own Musadan rocket into a viable long-range ICBM — including a number of tests last year — have almost all failed. The “astounding strides” that Pyongyang has made can only be explained by assuming the country gained access to foreign technology, a new comprehensive analysis of North Korea’s missile-test footage and data concludes. “The Hwasong 12 and 14 are powered by a [liquid propellant engine] imported from an established missile power,” said Michael Elleman, senior fellow for missile defence at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, in a report published on Monday.

Mr Elleman said the North Koreans were almost certainly using a modified version of the RD-250 — a Russian-designed missile engine that is only available from two sites: the Energomash concern in Russia and the KB Yuzhnoye design bureau and its closely linked Yuzhmash rocket factory in Ukraine. The RD-250 engines being used by North Korea also appear to have been skilfully modified, said Mr Ellemen — indicating that foreign engineers had been purposefully engaged in developing the engines for sale to the North Koreans.

Mr Ellemen’s report points to the Yuzhnoye facility in Ukraine as the likeliest source. The war between Ukraine and Russian-backed proxies in the restive east, close to the factory, has crippled the business, making its site, and employees, a potentially easy target to exploit. “A small team of disgruntled employees or underpaid guards at any one of the storage sites, and with access to the [engines], could be enticed to steal a few dozen engines by one of the many illicit arms dealers, criminal networks, or transnational smugglers operating in the former Soviet Union,” the IISS report says. “The engines (less than two metres tall and one metre wide) can be flown or, more likely, transported by train through Russia to North Korea.” The authors of both papers also told the FT that North Korea was likely to have a store of several of these adapted engines, with estimates ranging from 10 or so at the low end to upwards of 40 at the upper end.

MORE

 

[waltky]

Fighting in Eastern Ukraine Increases Since February...

Fighting in Eastern Ukraine Worst Since February, OSCE Says
December 19, 2017 — Fighting in eastern Ukraine has escalated to the worst level in months, officials monitoring the conflict said Tuesday, after the shelling of a front-line village wounded eight civilians and destroyed or damaged dozens of homes.

A Russia-backed insurgency erupted in 2014 and the bloodshed has continued despite a cease-fire deal that was meant to end a conflict in which more than 10,000 people have been killed, with casualties reported on a near-daily basis. The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which monitors the implementation of the peace agreement, said it had recorded 16,000 cease-fire violations from December 11 to December 17, a 35 percent increase from the week before. "We note with concern a sharp deterioration in the security situation with cease-fire violations reaching levels not recorded since February this year," chief monitor Ertugrul Apakan said in a statement.

Violence near Avdiivka

In February, a surge of violence around the government-held industrial town of Avdiivka cut off power and water to thousands of civilians on the front line. Apakan said the latest escalation reflected an established trend "in which a recommitment to the cease-fire by the sides was followed by a steady increase in the level of violence, culminating in fierce fighting." Apakan's comments followed warnings from aid agencies about the humanitarian situation in the eastern Donbass region, particularly given Monday's attack on the government-controlled village of Novoluhanske.

A house damaged by recent shelling is seen in Novoluhanske, Ukraine​

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on Twitter that heavy shelling near Novoluhanske was affecting 2,000 residents. People were fleeing the area in blizzard conditions, it said. Eight civilians were wounded and more than 50 buildings were damaged in the shelling, which also temporarily cut power supplies, the regional Kyiv-controlled Donetsk administration said. A Reuters witness saw residents picking their way through the rubble of destroyed homes and surveying fire-blackened buildings. The Ukrainian military on Tuesday accused pro-Russian separatists of deliberately firing more than 40 times from multiple-launch rocket systems at Novoluhanske.

Rebels say they were targeted

Meanwhile, the rebel command said attacks from the Ukrainian side had almost doubled in the past 24 hours, according to separatist news website DAN. Rebels denied attacking Novoluhanske and said the Ukrainian military had fired at the village to justify their attacks on separatist-held civilian areas, according to DAN.

A woman reacts near her house, which was damaged by recent shelling, in Novoluhanske, Ukraine​

In an effort to end the deadlock, the international community, including the United States, has in recent months been advocating for the deployment of U.N. peacekeepers in the Donbass. Both Kyiv and Moscow backed the idea but disagreed about whether the troops should be positioned on the rebel-controlled part of the Ukraine-Russia border, so no decision was made. Russia denies accusations from Ukraine and NATO that it supports the rebels with troops and weapons.

Fighting in Eastern Ukraine Worst Since February, OSCE Says