It's going to happen. It happened before. You can do something about it now or cry about it later.
It is likely. It will be a bad thing if it does. On a moral and practical level.
There is a real chance that we could do soemthing about it now, if people would stop lying about the issue and we faced it seriously and honestly.
A small chance. But it could happen. Supporting something that we know is wrong, because... well, I don't know your reasons. I know I don't support it.