Trump is building a wall of worry, and... [PUNDITS SAY "WORRY", S&P SAYS "CALM"]

[expat_panama]

By William Watts

Published by MARKET WATCH [ Trump is building a wall of worry, and that might be good news for stocks Jan 24, 2017 ] 4:23 a.m. ET

Should investors stop worrying and learn to love the uncertainty that surrounds the dawning of the Trump administration?

It’s a conundrum. After all, markets supposedly hate uncertainty, according to one oft-repeated market maxim. On the other hand, bull markets often see stocks “climb a wall of worry,” according to another axiom.

Donald Trump’s Nov. 8 presidential election victory sparked a stock-market rally as investors focused on pledges to cut taxes and reduce regulations and paid little heed to tough talk on trade and immigration that many had feared would be a negative...


...Trump and the accompanying partisan rancor surrounding his agenda is seen as almost certain to remain a source of market volatility.

“At this point, I think it’s clear we’re not going back to whatever normal was,” said Brad Tank, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman, in a note.

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MY TAKE:

Lots of pundits say we got increasing volatility. They're crazy:

Back in late '08 IBD reported that most investors voted for O; that w/ the fact that "Wall St." is physically located in downtown Manhattan we know that there's a heavy bias w/ financial reporting toward the left.

Translation: this repeat of the blind disconnect we had back in '02 is telling us we got a HUGE buying opportunity...

 

[Fenton Lum]

Did someone have the idea that Wall Street would not not continue to suck more societal wealth out of the economy regardless of who won?

 

[expat_panama]

Did someone have the idea that Wall Street would not not continue to suck more societal wealth out of the economy regardless of who won?

Curious, are you attacking employers as a way of helping employees or are you simply into attacking employers just for the sake of attacking anything and anyone around?

 

[william the wie]

Sorry expat technical analysis ain't my thing. I focus on relative value but the number of issue selling for 75% of book or less is decreasing doe that help you case?

 

[expat_panama]

...I focus on relative value but the number of issue selling for 75% of book or less is decreasing...

Interesting; of course what we make money on is market prices and those are the result of choices made by millions of individual participants --each of whom has his own needs and understandings.

As far as techanalyis goes, while it's possible that the pop patterns are how traders actually behave in real life it's also possible that the patterns are nonsense but it's what traders think is going to happen. It means traders are willing to buy according to techanalysis --a self-fulfilling prophesy. The ever present third possibility is of course that techanalysis is just a bunch of bunk and never works.

Me and a lot of guys like me hedge our bets and watch both the techs and the fundamentals. So. What's your take on other indicators beyond what --price to book?

 

[william the wie]

The Dow and S&P dogs seem to be reverting to mean index valuations faster than is usually true.I think I should stick to the S&P dogs because they are not as widely publicized. I am also trying to avoid exchange rate problems because I have no idea where the dollar is headed and I don't want to get burned again like I was with Unilever last year.